Home / Tag Archives: $COMPQ (page 6)

Tag Archives: $COMPQ

Careful: Slip Zone Below

Nasdaq futures are priced to trade flat/higher at the open after a normal-looking overnight session. Price spent most of globex in 2-way trade contained in the upper quad of yesterday’s trend day. Price managed to take out yesterday’s high a few times before ultimately falling back to the middle of range.

Intermediate term, we are trading neutral. We’ve spent the last 3 weeks oscillating but not really going anywhere. Instead we are bouncing along the tips of prior resistance. Bulls have struggled to confidently convert the prior resistance into support but have managed to hold the line thus far.

The nature of yesterday’s push higher means the ground below is us unstable all the way down to about 4280. Thus as enthusiastic as the rally was, bulls will want to see additional progress made away from this fast region. Conversely, the structures above are well established value curves suggesting it will take sustained demand to work through the thick supply.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to make a move for overnight high 4357. If they do so, then look for a test up to 4362.25 where we find responsive sellers and 2-way trade ensues. The market may go into “wait and see” mode sooner than some anticipate with Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes scheduled.

Hypo 2 is sellers push the overnight lows 4337 and work toward 4328.25 before finding responsive buying and stabling out, perhaps even printing a neutral day.

Hypo 3 is sellers accelerate us down below 4328.25 and set up a trend back down the zipper, all the way down to 4280.

Hypo 4 is buyers sustain trade above 4362.25 and continue on to test 4374.25 – 4375.75.


Comments »

No More Clowning Around

Nasdaq futures managed to print an abnormal range but volume has returned to normal as we head into Thursday. The session traded inside of yesterday’s range and found responsive buying down near the VPOC of the session (4290.50). The session was balanced.

Yesterday we printed the elusive normal day—a day where the first hour’s range is never exceeded for the remainder of the session. These day types suggest an other time frame was aggressive at the open but never became initiative intraday and 2-way trade ensued. It could be early signs of a pause ahead of tomorrow morning’s NonFarm Payroll change.

Overall, the short term is seller dominant, and the last 2-3 weeks are neutral. We are trading along the peaks of prior resistance and buyers have three times defended their progress. The more tests lower we have, the weaker their ranks become.

My primary hypothesis on the session is for buyers to sustain trade above 4300 and make a push to take out overnight high 4319.75. Look for responsive sellers around 4326 otherwise continue higher to 4338.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down through 4300 and push down to 4285 where responsive buying comes in and 2-way trade ensures.

Hypo 3 is a strong selling take out 4285 and test below yesterday’s session low 4275.75 to target 4255.



Comments »

Wake Up

Nasdaq futures went on a ride overnight where both the volume and rang exceeded second sigma.  During the hour and a half ahead of closing bell price started selling fast and on volume. The abnormal globex session continued to see selling, fast at times, which pushed below the prior (3/13) swing low before finding buyers.

Once it found buyers the auction reversed, and particularly after midnight price began moving upward with speed. The action nearly went round-trip as we head into cash open. And this morning like likely to be a busy one.

At 8:15 the ADP Employment Change data was weaker than expected. This news was met with a buying reaction. Also on the agenda today is Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, ISM Manufacturing at 10am, Fed’s Lockhart talking monetary policy at 10:30am, and oil/gas inventories out at 10:30am as well.

Turning to the market profile chart, the carnage of last night’s session revealed a territory where buyers are being aggressive. Just below 4285 buyers have demonstrated aggressive control. Should that price level trade again today, I would expect a similar response, otherwise I would deduce a material shift in context has taken place.

Price is currently pinned within a well-defined value area dating back to 3/26. Essentially, how we break from the 4324 – 4305 range will determine direction in the short term.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to attempt to push back into Tuesday’s range (4320.75) and claw back into the value area up at 4350. However I anticipate responsive sellers will defend this region.

Hypo 2 is seller push off the open to 4305 where responsive buyers step in and we stick in the 4324 – 4305 range.

Hypo 3 is sellers blow through 4305 to set up a test of the responsive buying zone below 4285. If buyers do not defend we could see a fast flush.

Hypo 4 is buyers reclaim 4350 and continue pressing higher to target 4362.

Levels are highlighted below:


Comments »

Speed Zones on Both Sides of The Tape

Nasdaq futures are set to gap up this Monday after trading an abnormal 50 point range during globex. Around 8pm buyers started working, and just before 11pm a large stop-run style push worked through. The move held though some 2-way action and ahead of the European markets opening it went on a secondary rally before finding sellers right as Euro markets opened.

Price is set to open inside the afternoon value zone formed last Wednesday during the trend lower. On both sides of this distribution the action can accelerate. Thus today carries an elevated risk:reward.

At 8:30am we had Personal Spending/Consumption data and saw a muted reaction. At 10am Pending Home Sales are out, and keep in mind we have German Unemployment stats out tonight.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into this overnight inventory. Look for a struggle at 4338.75 but sellers manage to take out that area and work to 4323.

Hypo 2 is buyers sustain trade above 4338 and continue working higher. If they can take out overnight high 4367.50 then look for a push up through 4381 to run up the thin area to 4397.

Hypo 3 is we stick in a range between 4360 and 4340 (unlikely).



Comments »

Salvaging The Week

Nasdaq bulls were knocked around well this week by sellers who took advantage of the thin market profile left behind after the Fed back on 3/18. After sliding down through that region they used their momentum to overshoot the reaction zone and close the 3/13 gap and push through most of its range.

Futures were flat heading into the 8:30am GDP and Personal Consumption data. Also on the agenda today is the U of M Confidence data at 10am, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm, and a sneaky 3:45pm Yellen speaking engagement on Monetary Policy. The initial reaction after the GDP data was selling.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to attempt a continuation of yesterday’s rebound. If they can push above yesterday’s session high 4331 I will look for an accelerated move up to the NVPOC at 4350.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push us below 4300 early on and sustain trade below it to set up a move toward overnight low 4297.25 then a continued exploration lower below Thursday’s low 4271.75. If responsive buyers are not found here, then it opens the door for a push down to 4250.

Levels are highlighted below:


Comments »

The Speed Is Back (So Soon?)

Nasdaq futures are running abnormally hot this morning with extreme range readings (beyond 2nd sigma) and abnormal volume. The market managed to 1 time frame down (price discovery) up until about 6am when buyers began defending just below the 3/13 swing low. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claim readings initially brought more selling in but have since reversed said losses.

Also on the economic calendar today is Markit Composite/Service PMI at 9:45am, Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am, and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity at 11am. Keep in mind there are also some GPD readings out Friday before market open.

The market is currently pricing a pro gap down. Any attempt to fade this move would require significant resources. The open print will be way out of balance and is likely to encourage other time frame activity.

Taking to the charts, we can see sellers probing back into the upper-most distribution of our multi-month consolidation which precluded the latest rally. Now that we have pushed through its HVN (4285.25) it is likely we test down through the other side of it which would mean a move to about 4250.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for some whipsaw at the open before buyers make an attempt higher to work into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers to defend ahead of 4308.75 to set up a move below the overnight low 4270.

Hypo 2 is a full gap fill up to 4325.50.

Hypo 3 is a gap and go lower to continue the 1 time frame trending activity.

Hypo 4 is a push below overnight low 4270 which is met by responsive buying ahead of 4250 and we balance out on the lower end of the top distribution.

These levels are highlighted below:



Comments »

More Slow Play at The Nasdaq

This morning promises to be a choppy one. After a sedentary session yesterday, price and value have settled into a stable pocket with a well-established distribution both above and below our current area. Please, see more clearly what I mean below where I have marked the key reference points and a two visual hypotheses:


Adding tinder to the potential for a choppy open is the sexy world of economic releases. CPI (Feb, YoY) was out at 8:30am and firmed up more than expected leading to rate hike talk. Price initial pushed lower by has since gone unchanged off the data. Several more data will spatter out this morning including House Price Index at 9am, Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and New Home Sales at 10am.

Heading into today, my primary hypo is sellers work down into overnight inventory and take out overnight low 4431.25 and do their best to fill the gap down to 4424.50 and target the NVPOC at 4422.25 before finding responsive buyers.

Hypo 2 is buyers defend around 4438.50 (overnight gap fill) and push up through overnight high 4449.75 and continue on to work the value area high of the upper distribution around 4457-4460.

Hypo 3 is a strong drive higher up through VAH 4460 and a gap fill up to 4472.50.

Levels highlighted below:


Comments »

Back on Top

Nasdaq futures are starting the week flat after rallying last week. The overnight session printed normal volume and range but did manage to take out Friday’s session low a few times before bouncing back to unchanged.

The economic calendar is quiet stateside today with Existing Home Sales at 10am as well as Fed’s Williams talking economic outlook. At 1:15pm attention will be on the European Union where Chancellor Merkel is meeting with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras for talks on Greece. They are meeting in Berlin.

Turning our attention to the charts we can see how the Nasdaq went gap up through a prior well-established value area. Price worked higher for much of Friday’s session before finding responsive sellers 1-tick ahead of closing the gap dating back to March 1st at 4472.50.

4444 serves as a helpful pivot point especially if sellers decide to work into the below gap zone today. Please see below:

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction inside Friday’s range followed by a push higher to target overnight high 4461.25. If buyers sustain trade above 4459 then look for a push to new swing high 4477.

Hypo 2 is sellers contain trade below 4448.25 and work down into the gap zone below to target overnight low 4439, Thursday’s range gap 4432.50 and a full gap fill to 4424.50. The ultimate target of this hypo is tagging the NVPOC at 4422.25.

Hypo 3 is aggressive selling takes us down through the NVPOC at 4417 and begins working down into the Fed rally. Look for signs of responsive buying down at 4400 but be cautious of a full take back down to 4355.25.

I have highlighted key market profile zones below:


Comments »

Happy OPEX Day

Nasdaq futures are up sharply as we head into monthly/quarterly option expiration day. No news appears to be behind this overnight action (correct me if I’m overlooking something) and heading into cash open we are working with a pro gap.

The economic calendar is quiet today. There are two Fed heads speaking—Lockhart at 10:20am in Georgia and Evans in Washington. Energy traders will likely be closely watching the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm as well.

Yesterday the Nasdasq printed a normal variation with a range extension down. Overall a quiet, balancing session in the upper quad of Wednesday’s Fed day move. Once the cash session ended however prices began trading 1-time frame up.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to build off their overnight progress by attempting a gap and go. To succeed in doing so, they will need to sustain trade above the very prevalent mCLVN at 4459. If they do, then look for a push to target the open gap up at 4472.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers defend the mCLVN at 4459 and begin working into the overnight inventory. In that case, look for swift action back down to 4437 area and a potential full gap fill down to 4424.50.

Hypo 3 is a big gap up and then sideways grind to wear out any intraday theta on options.

These levels are highlighted below:


Comments »

Zipper Context

I spent the morning updating my charts and stats to the current market conditions and the result is overwhelmingly neutral. Nasdaq futures are trading lower on the globex session after taking out Wednesday’s session high by a few ticks. The range and volume are both on the high end of normal as traders actively debated the true value of this instrument.

At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out mixed and brought sellers in who made a new overnight low. At 10am Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed info will be released. At this time Fed’s Tarullo will also begins his testimony to the Senate. At 10:30am Natural Gas Storage data is out.

Turning to the charts, yesterday we printed a neutral-extreme profile print suggesting strong upward directional conviction. The major move up was news driven. Participants drove price higher after the release of the FOMC rate decision and commentary. In the wake of the move is a zipper or single prints which are vulnerable to fast selling. Should price trade down below 4400 it may setup a fast move back to 4350 to reassess the crime scene.

Conversely, there are a few price magnets just above our current prices. Just above overnight high (4435) there is a micro-composite volume point of control (mCVPOC) and a bit higher an open gap (4472.50). These areas may attract price and lead to a drift higher.

Thus, my primary expectation heading into today is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4421.25. From here look for buyers to attempt to take out overnight high 4435 and target the MCVPOC at 4444.25.

Hypo 2 is buyers are unable to sustain trade above yesterday’s close 4421.25 and responsive sellers step in to push below overnight low 4412.75. Look for responsive buyers ahead of 4405 who stabilize the action and balanced, 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is sellers push down through 4400 and sustain trade below this level setting up a fast move down the zipper. Look for buyers at 4385 but ultimately they are run over on the way back to 4350.

These levels are highlighted below:


Comments »