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Tag Archives: $COMPQ

Chunking A Few Scenarios

Nasdaq futures saw an active session overnight with both range and volume coming in a bit ahead of normal. Price spent most of the evening pushing lower until finding buyers ahead of yesterday’s cash session low 4386.50. Since then, we’ve spent most of the early morning working higher.

At 8:30am, Housing Starts came in a bit worse than expected and Building Permits a bit better—thus the data was mixed. The initial reaction to the news is buy flow. Aside from those events, the US economic docket is empty for the day, and investors are likely focusing on tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC Rate Decision.

Yesterday the market opened pro gap down and saw an aggressive liquidation-type push lower early. The price action exceeded last week’s low 4390.25 before finding a sharp responsive bid. After a thorough churn at the 4400 century mark, intraday responsive buyers became initiative and we spent the rest of the session grinding higher. Buyers managed to trade up to the 06/09 open gap left behind last week Wednesday when we opened gap up and trended higher. This action exhibits the continued methodical manner by which our market is trading—very healthy overall.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 4426.75. This sets up a push above overnight high 4428.75 and puts buyers well on their way to closing the weekly gap up to 4448.25. Look for sellers to defend last Friday’s range low 4440.50. Gauge short term control on whether buyers are able fully close the gap up to 4448.25 or if instead they fizzle out ahead of it.

Hypo 2 buyers push into overnight inventory but stall around 4421.50 and price rolls over. Sellers target overnight low 4395.75 setting up a test of Monday’s session low 4386.50. If buyers cannot defend then look for liquidation to take hold and push price down to 4360.50.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 4395.7 5early and push to 4360.50 where we find responsive buying.

Hypo 4 churn takes hold, as investors wait for tomorrow’s FOMC decision, between 4433.50 and 4396.25.


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Gap Filling Machine

Nasdaq futures are up a touch as we head into US market open after a second globex session of normalized range and volume. The overnight session compressed in the upper quad of yesterday’s range before making a burst higher.

At 8:30am we heard Advance Retail Sales figures as well as Initial/Continuing Jobless claims. We also have natural gas storage data at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend day, for the most part, before settling out in the afternoon and forming balance/acceptance. The last three days have been an exercise in clearing up old open gaps. On Tuesday we went and closed the 5/13 gap and bounced. On Wednesday we continued lower before finding a sharp responsive buy. Then yesterday we pushed higher to close the 6/5 gap and the 6/4 gap.

Bulls will have to consider the fact we left an open gap behind yesterday morning down at 4431. If this market has consistently demonstrated anything this year, it has been a strong proclivity to go back and close gaps.

Nevertheless, this type of methodical trading suggests we’re in a healthy market with multiple time frames participating.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap to 4488. Look for buyers to defend north of 4482 who continue pushing higher to take out overnight high 4500. Overhead targets are 4512.75 and 4515.50.

Hypo 2 buyers push early and take out overnight high 4500 and continue higher to explore the LVNs at 4515.50 & 4520.50. Look for responsive sellers at 4529.50.

Hypo 3 Churn inside the upper quad of yesterday’s range 4473.50 – 4500.


06112015_NQ_VP 06112015_NQ_MP

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Hey, A Normal Overnight Session

My expectation heading into the week was for volatility to be low in the beginning of the week. And while most other indices saw volatility decrease, the Nasdaq has been ripping around, especially overnight.

However volatility receded during this morning’s globex session, and we’re heading into cash open with a normal range and volume overnight session in tote.

This is a slow week for economic events, but the pace will pick up a bit on the tail end of the week. At 7am we had MBA Mortgage Applications, at 10:30am Crude/Gas Inventories, and at 2pm we have a Monthly Budget Statement. Tomorrow morning BMO we have Advanced Retail Sales.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day, and nearly a neutral extreme day. The variation that qualifies a neutral day as extreme, at least in my unwritten book, is closing in the upper quadrant of the day’s range. Neutral days feature a range extension on both sides of the initial balance and tend to occur at-or-near inflection points. The session also printed a healthy-looking excess low that may stick for the remainder of the week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for seller to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap to 4431. From here, it’s not a big distance to take out the overnight low 4430.50. Look for responsive buyers at 4411.50-4407.50 and two way trade to ensue, south of ONH 4451.75.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, instantly leaving unfinished business in their wake, to take out overnight high 4451.75 and continue exploring higher to target 4480.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4407.75 setting up a test of yesterday’s low. Look for responsive buyers from 4387.25 – 4379.



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Persistent Overnight Volatility

Nasdaq futures are lower heading into Tuesday on above average range and volume. The session was dominated by sellers who took out yesterday’s session low and continued pushing lower, well into the range from 05/12.

Scheduled Economic events aren’t the likely catalyst to this selling. It appears to be related to the ongoing discussions between Germany and Greece. Today is another quiet economic day for the US—at 10am we have Wholesale Inventories.

Yesterday we came into the week gap down and proceeded to push lower for most of the session. Price travelled down into the 5/13 range and closed an open gap we had down there before finding responsive buyers. The strong rotation off the low was faded into the bell and led to continuing sell flow overnight.

The higher time frame action resulted in some ugly profile prints above, and it will be interesting to navigate these footprints, to say the least.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4433.75. Look for buyers to continue higher to take out overnight high 4441.25 and test the 4450 mark.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, take out overnight low 4403.75. Look for responsive buyers form 4387.75 – 4379.


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Easing into Monday With A Chill Vibe

Nasdaq futures are heading into the week balanced and compressed. The overnight session has so far been a narrow (but normal) range on normal volume. The economic calendar is light this week and today in particular only has one low impact release—at 10 am the Labor Market Conditions Change.

Aside from headline risk, that essentially leaves the market to its own device.

Last week we came in ambitious, gap up, and quickly eroded the gap to kick off 3 days of chop. Toward the end of the week sellers worked us lower until we found a sharp responsive bid Friday morning. We closed out the week grinding sideways.

Interesting to note, last week Monday we printed a normal day—we haven’t seen this print in quite some time. It suggests strong OTF presence early in the session, but no conviction follow through afterwards. The footprint it left behind suggests higher time frame selling that was absorbed well for much of last week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work the market higher. Look for an early move to take out overnight high 4483.25 followed by a gap fill trade up to 4497.50 with 4508.25 as an upside target.

Hypo 2 buyers push up to 4497.50 then stall out and two way trade ensues with a range of about 4500 to 4473.

Hypo 3 sellers work lower, take out overnight low 4468.75 and test below Friday’s low 4449.25.


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Back on The Bottom of The Range

Nasdaq futures are trading lower as we head into Friday’s trade. The session was active even before the Non-farm Payroll data but obviously the pace has increased since the data. Range and volume have extended beyond first sigma and it will be interesting to see if the volumes carry into the day session of if we instead see action fizzle out as the day progresses.

Also on the calendar today we have the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down to press the low end of our range. Down there we found buyers who emerged late in the session despite being bludgeoned most of the day with selling pressure. If affirms the idea of intermediate term balance.

Heading into today, I will patiently observe the first hour, allowing the post-NFP dust to settle. However, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4497.50 and continue to target the overnight high 4506.50.

Hypo 2 is a seller push down to test below yesterday’s low 4473.25. Look for buyers at 4460.50 then again at 4450.50.

Hypo 3 we chop inside of 4473 – 4500 range.



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Huge Overnight Session

Europe took to the main stage overnight both with their economic reports and news bits revolving around the Greeks. We’re heading into US cash open on the tails of a historic overnight session featuring range well beyond second sigma and volume nearly as elevated. On the Nasdaq, 60,000 contracts is the 2nd sigma threshold, we are nearly exceeding it with just under an hour until the open.

The standout feature of the session is a huge, 41.25 point rotation lower right around the time German Employment data was released, followed by a 40.50 point counter rotation higher to effectively undo the selling. Since then we have churned between the peak and valley. The selling managed to take back nearly the entire range of Wednesday’s trend day before finding the responsive bid. It’s interesting to note that buyers came in right around the 5am Euro-Zone CPI data—a very news/headline driven market.

Fortunately we only have one item on the US agenda today, Factory Orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal day-type, a structure that’s anything but normal, with a 5.66% occurrence rate since January 2013. It featured a big push lower early on, but no range extension. Instead neither sellers nor buyers became initiative. Instead we worked the rest of the day within the range.

It speaks to the developing balance we’ve been discussing since two weekends back. We are in a 2-timeframe market meaning both locals and longer term participants are active In these conditions, intraday levels can become less reliable and it’s prudent to give more weight to the higher timeframe levels presented by the developing volume profile. With that in mind, you will notice I am only presenting the volume profile below to emphasize these price levels.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4521.75. Look for buyers to continue up to target the overnight high 4529.75 with a stretch target of 4543.25.

Hypo 2 is a quick push up above overnight night 4529.75 and beyond to close the gap up to 4543.25 where we find responsive sellers who push us back into 4530.

Hypo 3 sellers push early to test yesterday’s low 4486 but cannot take out overnight low 4480.75 and responsive buyers push us back up for a gap fill to 4521.75.

Hypo 4 sellers push down to 4460.50, look for responsive buyers here otherwise a test down to 4450.



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Rumors of Rumors

Nasdaq futures are coming into the new week (and new month) gap up. The globex session featured an abnormal range on high-end normal volume. The defining feature of the session was a large rotation up, nearly 30 points, that occurred from about 7am to 7:45am. The move is being attributed to rumors of a Greek accord coming out.

We had Personal Consumption data out at 8:30am which came in softer than expected. It introduced a bit of selling into the market. We also have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and Construction Spending/ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

Last week was a holiday shortened week. We came into Tuesday gap down and trended lower most of the session before finding buyers in the former resistance zone from back on 5/8-5/13. They worked price nearly 30 points off the lows Tuesday which led to Wednesday when buyers became initiative and trended price higher all day. Thursday and Friday we chopped about in Wednesday’s upper half range.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory. The push to green was rumor driven and may stick, but I will look for sellers to attempt a gap fill down to 4516.75. From there I will look for buyers to come in and work higher to target the open gap at 4543.25 then a test of Wednesday’s high 4547.50.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out the gap up at 4543.25 before stalling out and rolling over to chop around 4520.50 for the rest of the session.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, take out and sustain trade above 4543.25 to set up a leg higher to new swing high. Measured move targets are 4557, 4560.75, and 4565.75.

Hypo 4 sellers fade the overnight move, take out overnight low 4506.50 and undo Wednesday’s trend day by testing below it 4497.25.



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Day After a Trend Day

Nasdaq futures were balanced overnight, trading normal range and volume within the upper quad of yesterday’s trend day. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came in solid with Claims holding below 300k for the 12th straight week. The initial reaction to the news is muted.

Also on the calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, Natural Gas Storage figures at 10:30am, and Crude/Distillate inventory at 11am.

Yesterday buyers came in early and put together a trend day. The action was successfully in traversing the entire developing value area. The day prior (Tuesday) we traversed the range in the opposite direction. We managed to take out the lingering naked VPOC at 4543.50, a reference point left behind on 4/27, the day we hit contract high. Price went slightly beyond the reference point before stalling out ahead of contract high.

Heading into today, my expectations for index moves are low. I am looking for action to slow down and grind with a slight upward bias. Look for buyers to sustain trade above overnight low 4531.25 and set up a push to take out overnight high 4543.75 and test above yesterday’s high 4551.

Hypo 2 sellers continue pushing, take out the overnight low 4531.25 and test the LVN at 4520.50. If buyers cannot defend then we continue testing lower target the MCVPOC at 4508.25.

Hypo 3 buyers try a push higher, stall out around 4540, failing to take out overnight high, setup up a move lower to revisit the LVN at 4520.50.


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First We Cover All The Scenarios

Nasdaq futures are trading a touch higher as we head into US open. The overnight session kicked off atop a 30 point afternoon bounce that buyers managed to put together after facing heavy selling most of the session. Range on the overnight session is normal on a normal amount of volume.

The economic calendar is open today. Overnight the Bank of Japan released the minutes from their April 30th meeting. It yielded little reaction from US equity futures however it has put continued upward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. We also had MBA Mortgage Applications at 7am this morning which came in a bit worse than expected and also yielded little reaction.

Yesterday we came into the holiday-shortened week gap down and had an open auction outside range before failing lower. Selling pressure was heavy throughout most of the morning and attributed to news about the Europe/Greek situation.

The nature of the move calls it into question. It was news driven and left behind a string of poorly auctioned prices. If the move is legitimately the start of a correction, then we likely won’t spend much time above the overnight high 4490.50.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap to 4481.25 and a continuation lower to push into yesterday’s bounce. I will look for signs of buyers at 4470 who work us back up above 4485.

Hypo 2 is buyers push above the overnight high 4490.50 early and we begin “climbing the pole” up to 4525.

Hypo 3 is sellers push but struggle to close overnight gap before buyers step in and we begin the pole climb.

Hypo 4 liquidation continues. Look for buyers around 4460 who ultimately are overrun and we continue exploring lower prices. Stretch target is the open gap at 4424.25.



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