Rumors of Rumors

Nasdaq futures are coming into the new week (and new month) gap up. The globex session featured an abnormal range on high-end normal volume. The defining feature of the session was a large rotation up, nearly 30 points, that occurred from about 7am to 7:45am. The move is being attributed to rumors of a Greek accord coming out.

We had Personal Consumption data out at 8:30am which came in softer than expected. It introduced a bit of selling into the market. We also have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and Construction Spending/ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

Last week was a holiday shortened week. We came into Tuesday gap down and trended lower most of the session before finding buyers in the former resistance zone from back on 5/8-5/13. They worked price nearly 30 points off the lows Tuesday which led to Wednesday when buyers became initiative and trended price higher all day. Thursday and Friday we chopped about in Wednesday’s upper half range.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory. The push to green was rumor driven and may stick, but I will look for sellers to attempt a gap fill down to 4516.75. From there I will look for buyers to come in and work higher to target the open gap at 4543.25 then a test of Wednesday’s high 4547.50.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out the gap up at 4543.25 before stalling out and rolling over to chop around 4520.50 for the rest of the session.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, take out and sustain trade above 4543.25 to set up a leg higher to new swing high. Measured move targets are 4557, 4560.75, and 4565.75.

Hypo 4 sellers fade the overnight move, take out overnight low 4506.50 and undo Wednesday’s trend day by testing below it 4497.25.

Levels:

I am back from my mini adventure. Truthfully, I was back Friday evening, as I could sense the rains coming. Looking back on the marketplace it seems avoiding the control panel was a wise choice as Friday turned out to be a real chop-fest.

The late-spring conditions created river levels high enough for me to kayak deeper into the woods then I even have. In the serenity of nature, a symphony of sounds, I proceeded to inebriate myself drinking in all the colors and sights around me.

I watched a red winged blackbird hop from one cattail to another until finding one that bent him right down to the river water, slowly. I noticed how much like a blade of grass, the tops of towering trees gently stretched large distances in the gusts of wind. Each gust loosened more helicopter seeds into the sky that glided down for what seemed like hours before landing in the river where they accented the water’s gentle current.

Nearing my 30^th year I finally pieced together how clever the makers of Play-Doh were, how the toy allows us to form crude renditions of real-life things—just like the fiery shadows in Plato’s cave.

Then I returned, refreshed, covered in mosquito and spider bites, and put in some heavy strategy sessions. TWO MATES, like a fork in the river, Weekly & Exodus Strategy Sessions. As soon as next week the two rivers will converge into one, great river.

Subs, the latest reports are out. There are signals-on-signals and I do my best to keep all the currents untangled and simple to understand.

One last note, on how my friend the bald eagle soars, his wingspan so wide it touches the tree tips on both sides of the river. He always makes the soul burn with patriotism.

I have abandoned my tanning machine of an office (4 screens) to be back in focus with nature. You people and your incessant needs, does the electronic world know no bounds?

Apparently not, as this iPhone is still LTE:::IRRELEVANT!

I did heinous things to the futures market Wednesday. Gains so big dicked, I need a wheeled barrow. Then Thursday I tacked on some ancillary whilest teaching people of the Middle Ages how to use a computer.

One day you’ll run your stats and find thing out about yourself. Your boy raul, when he’s put a hurt on the financial complex all week, tends to give half his booty back to the stock good gods on Friday, a penance for his greed.

Patterns lads, they show up on more than just price charts. These kind are called habits, or fate if you believe in such nonsense.

The only certain fate we have is the slow rot of this sack of fluid we call a body.

BOTTOM LINE – you’ve already woken me from my nap in the moss. Know this, I am balls deep into the bull camp. I’ll be back manning the gates of Exodus this weekend, issuing the second edition of Exodus Strategy Session. Until then, the only thing you should attempt to know is that you know nothing at all.

Life is all about patience, not sticking your neck out too far, but still picking your spots and working the probabilities. We have quite the compression across the indices as we head into the witching hour. Bulls have a shot as long as we trade above 4335 on the Nasdaq.

Stats say higher, cycles have an essence to them, and we’re heading into the best month of the year. There may still be some tasty mushrooms on the forest floor, if I’m lucky.

May you all have a move like DDD in your book tomorrow and a warm loaf of bread for your table.

Nasdaq futures were balanced overnight, trading normal range and volume within the upper quad of yesterday’s trend day. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came in solid with Claims holding below 300k for the 12^th straight week. The initial reaction to the news is muted.

Also on the calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, Natural Gas Storage figures at 10:30am, and Crude/Distillate inventory at 11am.

Yesterday buyers came in early and put together a trend day. The action was successfully in traversing the entire developing value area. The day prior (Tuesday) we traversed the range in the opposite direction. We managed to take out the lingering naked VPOC at 4543.50, a reference point left behind on 4/27, the day we hit contract high. Price went slightly beyond the reference point before stalling out ahead of contract high.

Heading into today, my expectations for index moves are low. I am looking for action to slow down and grind with a slight upward bias. Look for buyers to sustain trade above overnight low 4531.25 and set up a push to take out overnight high 4543.75 and test above yesterday’s high 4551.

Hypo 2 sellers continue pushing, take out the overnight low 4531.25 and test the LVN at 4520.50. If buyers cannot defend then we continue testing lower target the MCVPOC at 4508.25.

Hypo 3 buyers try a push higher, stall out around 4540, failing to take out overnight high, setup up a move lower to revisit the LVN at 4520.50.

Levels:

Hesitant to buy up here? I bet. Everything seems expensive now. An astute reader may have cut through the rabble and noticed we flagged oversold yesterday in Exodus. Members had the benefit of seeing the signal take shape late yesterday afternoon, about 30 Nasdaqs into Tuesday’s hole.

But that was yesterday, today was today, and tomorrow is tomorrow. How will you make money tomorrow, right? If you’re anything like me, you don’t know where your next meal is coming from.  Always stay hungry.

What if I told you any long entry into today’s tape was risk free? Would you go long then? NO! Probably not even if I knocked on your shit office door and pointed you right to the honey.

Nevertheless, let’s fall back on our market profile logic and KO anyone who had too many carbs for lunch. Theory states any entry during a trend day, in the direction of a trend, is a risk free entry into the following session. That means, almost always (the world is not so perfect lads!) we will exceed the trend day’s high, IF ONLY BY A TICK, the following session.

Yes, yes, but what does it all mean?

It means the real money is made tomorrow. So you can either curl up under your desk like a little babay, suckling your thumb, or you get out there and buy something.

One last thing before they rescind my headline status. I shouldn’t even be showing you this, but what the hell? This is one of the many powerful tools inside Exodus—it’s called the Risk Appetite Index. Do you know what it has been saying since February? Since that insufferable range? RISK ONN, MUTHA FUCKAS. See below:

Email me [email protected] if you are curious about how Exodus can help you.

I know most of my trading cohorts, intelligent lads fueled by statistics and logic, decidedly booked their monster DUST and short NUGT victories. They’re adhering to the timetables and average returns set forth well in advance by our super computers.

And I might do the same at some point today. I do not blow about the world by the winds of impression, but I will bend like a blade of grass. In either case, I could sure like to see more acts of brutality visited upon gold bulls.

They’re vile citizens, reclusive in nature, no less a man than me, but morose on the future. I’d rather throw my hat with someone who is objective about reality, but also pursuing ways to make it better. Not some goldbricking naysayer living in the woods.

Naturally, this means I am long TSLA, forever, and if I had the means to do so, I’d be short gold, forever.

Everyone needs their go-to power move if they intend to survive and grow as a trader. Mine is working single TPO prints on the Nasdaq.

This is the second successful pole climb I’ve managed to ride in the last three weeks.

If it wasn’t for these, I’d be a busker, hanging out at my local park, doing human statue for dollars.

Feast your eyes on the latest pole climb, good for forty plus Nasdaqs:

Let’s say, hypothetically, you weren’t a dip buyer yesterday and also you didn’t buy into the gift gap fill offered early this morning.

Maybe you’d rather grow a beard, or something, instead of pursuing coin. Fine, so be it chum.

If you’re in the sell IN May camp, meaning you’re riding your gay motorcycle around town all summer, cash heavy, perhaps I can still interest you in a few slow plays?

I offer you DRII and NRG. One is a hot hotel chain and the other an electric utility. Both come with gleaming endorsements from Exodus.

Now go shave your fucking face and come back to real world.

Nasdaq futures are trading a touch higher as we head into US open. The overnight session kicked off atop a 30 point afternoon bounce that buyers managed to put together after facing heavy selling most of the session. Range on the overnight session is normal on a normal amount of volume.

The economic calendar is open today. Overnight the Bank of Japan released the minutes from their April 30^th meeting. It yielded little reaction from US equity futures however it has put continued upward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. We also had MBA Mortgage Applications at 7am this morning which came in a bit worse than expected and also yielded little reaction.

Yesterday we came into the holiday-shortened week gap down and had an open auction outside range before failing lower. Selling pressure was heavy throughout most of the morning and attributed to news about the Europe/Greek situation.

The nature of the move calls it into question. It was news driven and left behind a string of poorly auctioned prices. If the move is legitimately the start of a correction, then we likely won’t spend much time above the overnight high 4490.50.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap to 4481.25 and a continuation lower to push into yesterday’s bounce. I will look for signs of buyers at 4470 who work us back up above 4485.

Hypo 2 is buyers push above the overnight high 4490.50 early and we begin “climbing the pole” up to 4525.

Hypo 3 is sellers push but struggle to close overnight gap before buyers step in and we begin the pole climb.

Hypo 4 liquidation continues. Look for buyers around 4460 who ultimately are overrun and we continue exploring lower prices. Stretch target is the open gap at 4424.25.

Levels: