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Twitter winter is ending

If you’ve been accumulating shares of Jack Dorsey’s Twitter alongside me throughout the entire winter and paper handedly sell at the first sign of winter ending I can’t help you. Investing isn’t for you. Seek W-2 service at a corporation willing to start you at $15/hour or obtain some low-level bachelors degree and a starting salary of $48,000.

If you intend to maintain financial independence you have to know how to milk a winner until it is done giving. Then sit through another winter, accumulating, eating apples over the kitchen sink, until summer comes again.

Patience. Now is the time to do nothing.

Raul Santos, March 1st 2021

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Bunker Buster Alert: IndexModel calls for acceleration to the downside

I like the timing of this signal. Right into February. Right into a Monday where most americans are operating at seventy percent, slowed down by their big man appetite for jalapeño poppers and footballs. It is a good time to catch the drunk american flat footed.

The coronavirus was nothing compared to an IndexModel Bunker Buster. This signal hasn’t fired since 06/02/2019 and the signal before that was way back on 12/23/2018. The signal calls for price to accelerate to the downside. This can look a few different ways.

A huge gap down Monday that is accumulated all morning, marking the low for good.

The selling begins in earnest during regular trading hours, sucking in some dip buyers before the real sell hits—NASDAQ down at least -250 intra-day, likely more like -400. This sets off a multi-day sell spree. Fuckers take to CNBC entertainment news, providing the teevee audience all sorts of reasons.

Meanwhile, over here on the humble Raul blog. We simply chalk it up to the Sublime Harmony of Mathematical Precision aka S.H.O.M.P. —-a term coined by none other that SENOR TROPICANA.

I am not such an ego maniac that I will make these dire forecasts without the caveat that I may be wrong. After all, these are the roaring ’20s lads, a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living being has ever seen. The drivers are Big Tech and their fearless leaders who would never doubt their vibes. Leaders who are generating GDP via autonomous flywheels that spit off money at margins in excess of anything those titans of industry could ever believe possible during the last roaring ’20s.

Anyhow the plan is simple. Don’t get cute. I will play for lower prices if we DO NOT start the week with a major gap down. I will not try and time the swing low. Instead I am going to deploy some fresh capital throughout the week, adding to my favorite stocks (TSLA, TWTR) and making an allotment to the RRF Motif.

Yes you heard me right, I am going to buy more Tesla. If you don’t like it, don’t look. You guys can mess around with ghetto coronavirus stocks, holding them for 4 days or whatever. I only buy thoroughbreds and I do so with no intention of selling ever, or at least not anytime soon.

I will sell some shares of TSLA at 1,000 but only because I want a solar roof.

You have, all of you have reasons why you invest and trade. I seriously doubt most of you dig deep into the reasons. Money, yes. Freedom, cool. For what? What will you do with it? Why?

Anyone reading this, trade’em well. This first week of February is setting up to be a real bear.

Raul Santos, February 02, 2020 (02/02/2020)

Exodus members, the 272nd edition of Strategy Session is live, be sure to check out the section on semiconductors. The picture on the PHLX is pretty clear and how we behave at the next signpost is likely to tell a story for the whole market.

 

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Second quarter allotment secured

I shouldn’t have to announce every time I buy more Tesla because timestamping my entries doesn’t matter—these shares I’ve been accumulating for years and years and years will either achieve a 1,000 handle or trade to zero.

When I choose to make my quarterly allotment is of no concern.  If this tree grows, we shalt not know until halfway through the roaring ’20s.

Next quarter we likely won’t be having a blogger/reader experience.  I’ll just buy more Tesla, hopefully for less than I paid today (about 240 bucks), and go back to working the NASDAQ.

Henceforth, as prior, let this post serve as a reminder that I am a long-term Tesla investor.

::waves from Mothership::

Raul Santos, May 2nd, 2019

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“Overplay for the underlay” on semiconductors

Yesterday we looked at the pivot level the NASDAQ transportation index is trading at.  Transportation bears are being pressured today after buyers received newfound conviction from the $CSX earnings.  Now let’s turn our attention to the real driver of stock market gains—the PHLX semiconductor index.  It has the classic overplay for the underlay* set-up.

BEHOLD:

After successfully setting up the overplay for the underlay, semiconductors are catching a bid off the old triangle consolidation.  Pretty straightforward stuff here folks—if buyers defend here we are likely to see a sharp move higher.   If not, probably more chop.   My gambles and bias say we go higher.  Yours should conform to your own damn research and bias. Trade accordingly.

kiss kiss

-RAUL SANTOS, JANUARY 17th, 2019

*Writer’s note – you will not find the ‘overplay for the underlay’ trade setup in any published books on technical analysis.  It is a term taken from the streets of Detroit, for when a dude pretends he’s not interested in something, like a real thick girl, until everyone’s attention has moved away, then he sweeps in and presents himself as a beta cuddle/sex slave.

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Averaged up on CRISPR

I was going through my archives and realized I haven’t messed your mind up with my CRISPR immortality chatter since April 2017.  Back then I was way out on the fringe of society, living in a van, preferably down by a river when possible.  My exuberance has been tampered several times since then.

I remember being on the final leg of a ski bum road trip across the west, meeting up with some corporate friends at mammoth mountain, who had ridden that nice Italian-sounding CRISPR stock, Sangamo, higher with me since around 3.50.  They were of course stoked to see me, first because they’d caught a fresh dumping of powder out on Chair 9 earlier in the day, and next because there we were, toasting our commanding of the financial markets with fireball and mountain ale.

I had been to seven other mountains before then, including two days at Jackson Hole, having caught powder on all of them, and was thinking with a clarity reserved for the truly satisfied mind.

They wanted to buy more Sangamo.  Whatever, this sounds like a brag at best, a downright fiction at worst.  I told them to instead sell a third or their position from 3.5o and lock in the profits.  I did the same a few days earlier, selling a third of my original position from inside the RV.  Look at this freaking chart:

We scaled 1/3 of our position at swing high.  Santa Lucia, say what you will about charts and timing and technical analysis guff—the right ingredients and you can think clearly, man.  I said to him, a Santa Barbarian mind you, I said, “We know very little about CRISPR science.  All we know is the rich have aspired to immortality since hording religious icons in Byzantium.  They have good reason to live.  Life has been good to them, they have complete command of reality and want to enjoy here on earth the fruits of their power.  That’s all we know.  Scale a third.”

It was a hard sell, selling them on selling but I had been targeting $25 all along. Old swing highs.  Not rocket science.

Anyways, clearly these people harp me as they see their net worth wither away, watching their papered gains on the remaining 2/3rds dwindle away, along with their aspirations for Tesla cars and coastal real estate.

What do we do now, RAUL, you fucking cave dwelling fuck?

I couldn’t care less.  I can live off of canned fish and river water.  Probably longer than a person subjected to the stresses of corporate servitude.  But I like CRISPR…I like selling rich assholes the promise of immortality.

So I would tell them.  I’m holding off until November.  This wasn’t some prophetic vision.  I just feel like I have/had a sense of the overarching sentiment surrounding this whole CRISPR situation.  Money changes people.  It makes them confident.  Which is fine.  Sometimes it makes them overconfident.  Which is fine too, but overconfidence opens up space for a scrappy and resourceful competitor to take.  There is a real balance to nature.

The bill always comes due.

Enthusiasm had returned to science, to immortality, to CRISPR—to the stock market in general.  This chart is quietly passed around by a small circle of traders:

And as you might imagine, I sensed it when people started to panic about Sangamo.  A fall from $25 to $16 in two months (March-April 2018) puts some panic in people.  Hahaha, funny humans.

Anyways, I figured we had to make panic lows.  After which there would be a violent bounce higher before making another new low, which meant another long, bitter, shitty stretch of discouragement was in the cards.  So I figured wait until November, then take it from there.

I pay attention to things most of yous overlook.  It’s a product of consuming raw inputs as opposed to cooked up media bits or other foolishness.  Raw stock market interactions.  That is how I measure the temperature of the collective human mind.  Say what you will about my school of thought.  It lets me slide through the financial complex like a fox, snagging meals along the way.  No ones master.  No ones slave.

Anyways, something caught my interest on last Sunday’s strategy session.  During our first material bounce of the Great Bear Market of 2018 [sarc] the Health Care sector turned out the best 5-day return, look:

So I’m sitting here Monday, trying to take the week off because my signals were crossed, and the stock market is being obliterated.  I remembered the conversation I had with one of my closest confidants, ROBERTO BREGANTE, and how I had informed him that I had begun stalking SGMO—since it was now November and Sangamo was having its shit tossed last week.  I told him resting bid at 10, resting bid at 10…might inch up higher if buyers step in before then.

The truth was I had no resting bid.  I never rest bids unless I absolutely have to.  I was here Monday morning, sending emails and pacing around Mothership and preparing morning trading plans and shit.  When I dialed up a quote on the NAS100 futures at about 11am I was surprised at what all of you had done to the stock market.  I didn’t look for a reason why it happened beyond a cursory scan of Twitter.  I realized nothing horrible had happened, aside from a shite tonne of primitive missiles being fired from the Gaza Strip, a variety of shoddy ballistics fired towards the citizens of Israel.  This is like the Holy Land equivalent of a mass shooting in America.  It has almost zero likelihood of needing to be priced into the stock market.  So I directed my attention back to the NASDAQ futures.

I went long 6833 despite it being my week off.  I was in a jovial mood so I live tweeted the trade.

Since I was back at the trading turrets on Mothership, I dialed up Sangamo.  And there it was, back at 10, right where I wanted it.  While capturing 65 nasdaq points, I watched to see if buyers would step into Sangamo at $10, and when it seemed they did I added to the position.

This is my first SGMO buy since about 3.50.

I hope this blog entry doesn’t come off as some kind of brag.  I also hope you do not take action based off this blog post.  All I am trying to do is expand upon my thought process when investing.  I feel like you have to bring a unique perspective to a game as competitive as speculating if you intend to produce unique returns.  That being said, everyone is different and their ability to dedicate resources to their way of life or their mind or investment process is different.  When I was a younger lad, I scoured the internet for real people who operated inside the financial complex, starving for information on how they do it.  That is why I blog.  I blog as if leaving a bottled message for 21 year old me.

Godspeed old sport.

Hopefully an entry like this gives you some insight and makes some light bulbs emit lumens into a dark corner of your own mind–expanding your investor mind.

Or not, whatever.  I am longer CRISPR as of today via more shares of that nice Italian sounding CRISPR stock SANGAMO.

ciao ciao kiss kiss

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The hardest simple trade of the year

I do not like discussing the trading signals generated by Exodus outside of the paywall.  But we are flagging hybrid overbought.  The signal became official on close-of-business Friday.  That means everyone reading this very free and public blog has just as much opportunity to engage this trade as anyone who pays for an Exodus subscription.  If you are an Exodus member, and this is annoying to you, reading my public announcement, you may want to consider channeling that energy towards actually trading this signal correctly.  Because in my 1-on-1 talks with nearly 100 different Exodus members, I’ve yet to find someone who tells me they trade this signal the way you are supposed to.

First mental roadblock—it is called hybrid overbought.  That seems to mean the system expects lower prices.  Perhaps when the signal was designed, that was the intention, to identify a stress point from which lower prices would follow.  And perhaps in the future, if we are in a prolonged downtrend, it will be useful at identifying a selling opportunity.  A good way of knowing what the signal currently suggests you do (if you want your trading process to be driven by statistics) is to look at historical activity from all the other times the signal fired.  My main takeaway is that 83% of the time the SPY was higher after 10 trading days:

I actively trade NASDAQ futures, not S&P futures, so I prefer QQQ (actually TQQQ) as my instrument for playing this signal.  What I will do is simple—come Monday, when the stock market opens at 9:30am eastern, I will buy TQQQ.  Then, near end-of-day Friday, July 20th (10 trading days later) I will sell my TQQQ.

Simple. So simple.  Will I make money?  That is, as always, to be determined.

What is not to be determined is what I need to do when Exodus flags hybrid overbought.  I need to engage the long side.  There.  I have led you, fine horse, to water.  Feel free to stare at the glittering blob or have a drink.

This is an uncommon signal.  The last one happened on January 5th, 2018.  I traded it, made money, then went up in the mountains for many weeks.  This was the performance shown by each major index during the last overbought cycle:

Speaking of travel, a programming note:

I am headed to Hawaii this Saturday to explore the island of Kauai which I am told is in rough shape.  Many trails closed, beach gone, etc.  It could also be wet.  Therefore I am not bringing a laptop.  This means there will not be an Exodus Strategy Session next Sunday.  This will be the first Strategy Session I have missed in 190 consecutive weeks.  I feel like a jerk for leaving you guys without my research but I have no choice.

I will still be in Hawaii, but on the big island on July 20th.  Hopefully I will find enough internet to close out my TQQQ position that I intend to buy tomorrow.

I have never worried about talking my trading edge in public because I know 99% of people aren’t going to do the work.  Or even if they do, they will find ways to sabotage themselves, tilting off the plan and reducing their decision making to base survival instincts.  Instincts hard coded into the sapiens DNA that are effective in many circumstances, but not too useful (and often harmful) in the world of money management.

These blog scribbles are for 21 year old me, who was starved for useful information and had to scour the internet for information on trading the stock market that wasn’t either a. generic SEO optimized shit b. charlatan/lifestyle watch and car shit or c. pure unadulterated garbage.  Working closely with Exodus, and the fact that Exodus subscribers have invested in a platform that I truly believe anyone can build a consistent trading approach from, it seemed important to emphasize the hybrid overbought signal and how to trade it.  So I will repeat:

Go long Monday morning, July 9th.  Close said longs end-of-day Friday, July 20th.

I suggest broad market exposure via an index ETF.  If you want to try your luck at stock picking, by all means do it.  That ain’t my game.

Many decisions can be made simple.  Given the right information any sane person should be able to arrive at the same conclusion and behave accordingly.  Horse, water, etc.

This blog entry has been filed under the Category: Spoonfeeding

Most distinguished members of Exodus, the 190th edition of Strategy Session is live.  Go check it out.  Sorry in advance for missing the upcoming strategy session.  I will have to update the model data points after-the-fact, which in my mind tarnishes the objectivity of the results, but I promise to do so as honestly as possible.

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Nukes are more fun to watch then fireworks and my new alternative energy investment

I could have been trading NASDAQ futures this morning or sending important emails or scratching a few tasks off the old ‘to-do’ list.  Nope.  Instead I watched fifty or so nuclear explosions uploaded by the Lawrence Livermore national laboratory.  They decided to digitize the footage from about 200 nuke tests.  I just kept watching nuke-after-nuke.  Here are some stand-out nukes:

It could be all these weak ass fireworks going off around me that has me on a nuke bender.  My neighborhood is a mix of pickup truck loving Americans and old country Italians.  I venture you can guess who is blowing shit up.  Or it could be my recent obsession with dark forces and superstition, which is a close relative to faith.

Along the lines of faith, I initiated a new long term stock position late last week in Terraform Power, Inc.  I say long term but I need to learn more about their management and we need to break up-and-away from this wedge otherwise I’ll be forced to shift the funds into Tesla instead:

Because the position is based on faith in my One True Leader, Elon,  The belief being that Elon (Praise Him) and his team of scientists and engineers are Mankind’s Last Hope, and that they will succeed and save us from the destructive powers of big oil.  That they will continue to accelerate the adoption of alternative energy and electric cars.  And that some alternative energy stocks will grow rapidly as Elon leads us to greener pastures.  All the other car companies will of course stagnate.  They won’t perish through.  General Motors is to big to actually participate in real capitalism.

Faith keeps me tethered to Tesla.  I am not thrilled with the current share prices.  I would love to see it come down to $100 or so, allowing me to accumulate shares through my mid-30s at a discount rate, before they ultimately become the biggest company in the world while I become an old man.

So I am investing in some ancillary plays for now, based on the same immutable faith I have in Elon (Glory to The Leader).

We need to blow another nuke off.  All the old footage is weak.  We need to use those high resolution, slow motion cameras to really see the obscenity of a rapid nuclear reaction in full HD.  Just one.  And set up lots of good props.  Like if we are going to do it let’s do it right.

 

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Hope For Science: CRISPR Stocks Finally Catch a Bid

Those crazy scientists want to have a word with your god about immortality.  They are tinkering with ‘His’ DNA in the name of science.

Smart people from UC Berkeley and MIT think they can cure diseases, and several of them have formed pre-revenue public companies.  As you might imagine, this is an overlooked space.  Your average hairless ape no longer trusts journalists, doctors, scientists, the intelligence community, or anyone considered to be a cuckold.

They’re all limey bastards, right boys!?

Several of these stocks are putting up big numbers Thursday:

A cursory scan of my premium news feeds* shows only Sangamo is hustling this week, but they merely announced an ‘orphan medicinal product designation’ happened, and the announcement was early Wednesday morning.

*Writer’s note: I do not read peasant news unless it is filtered to me via a credible source, like iBankCoin.com or a Russian diplomat.

Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. ($SGMO) and Pfizer Inc. ($PFE) announced the European Medicines Agency has granted orphan medicinal product designation to SB-525, a clinical stage cDNA gene therapy candidate for hemophilia A. The designation provides incentives to advance the development and commercialization of orphan medicines.

So the move happening Thursday is pure, news-free buying.  Put simply, investors are giving a vote of confidence to CRISPR.

It has been a rough couple of weeks.   The stocks ‘needed’ to catch a bid.  The action has been discouraging, even sad.  Like Lana Del Rey levels of sadness.

And while the price action is still quite discouraging, and yes, this idea may end up ultimately failing quite soon, today’s action—the sharpness of it—inspires hope that the war against science may be nearing an end.  Perhaps one day soon investors will crave CRISPR science much like they desire Elon’s (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) electric creations.

Once CRISPR delivers, the science community will help all the sick and demented live much longer.  These 150 year old citizens will need tasks, even self-imposed ones like thinking they need to keep up with political theater, or else the low IQ masses will turn against us again.

Sooner, rather than later.

Long live science! Long live discovery!  No more living in the past in summary!

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More Selling Pressure in Nvidia; Target Achieved

Last week a short-term trade opportunity arose in Nvidia Corp after earnings prompted a sharp sell.  Large rotations are rarely a one-off experience, and with the help of our good friend Leonardo Fibonacci we can establish and shoot for a target in a simple manner.

NVDA_02132017

Nvidia has had an incredible run over the last few years, and while a bit of selling pressure is coming into the name, the long term chart has a long way to go before it merits reason for concern.

 

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BEHOLD: The Entire Exodus Strategy Session, Hot Off The Press

Since we are running free trials this weekend of Exodus, the entire 115th Edition of Strategy Session is publicly presented below.  This report is designed to build context and bias for 5 trading days—nothing more.  It gets through the week.

It has become an indispensable part of my own trading, and I’m grateful to share it with you guys.  It can come off as esoteric, but I have eliminated as much chaff as possible to focus only on what has shown value in predicting 5 trading days.  Regardless, if you have any questions, ask away.

Also, if you want to dig into the retail space (like I did below in Sections II and III) you can take a free trial of the software until midnight by clicking here.

Heading into Chinese New Year, this is my forecast:

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.20, Neutral*. Expect the low-volatility environment to continue this upcoming week, with index prices drifting along, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Focus on retail and whether we rotate into the industry-group as investors transition away from Healthcare and Financials.

*Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses e(RCS) bullish bias triggered, see Section IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Week three of 2017, NASDAQ drifts higher, the Russell lower, Dow and S&P mark time.

For the week, the performance of each major index can be seen below:

01222017_IndexPerf

Rotational Report:

Rotations start to trend toward more cautious sectors.  The Financials take a hit after many weeks of outperformance following the November election results.  Healthcare hit hard.

Slightly Bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

01222017-Sector-Performance-iBankCoin

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Buying one or two retail stocks was on the agenda last week.  I chose Dick’s Sporting goods [TICKER: $DKS].  This was based off a study shared by Jeff Macke on Twitter.

Other names of interest in retail are: TJX, CVS, ROST, GNC, SHW, and COST

Concentrated money flows were slightly bearish.  More industries populated the negative side of the ledger than the positive.

Slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

012252017_IndustryPerf

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Fundamentals to back up a long term position.  When looking for long-term holdings, I want to see a track record of excellence.  This means consistent growth of both the top (revenues) and bottom line (earnings).

When I scoured the retail landscape, only a few (of the 100s) of companies were doing a good job of growing their business.  Dicks was one of the best, see below:

DICKs-fundy

Compare those two charts to some of the other names out there, like Target (flat, stagnated growth) or Bed Bath and Beyond (top line growth, earnings trending lower), or Abercrombie and Fitch (fucked all around).

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently March 2017) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

01222017_BiasBook

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

01222017_BiasBook_lstwk_Results

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

01222017_BiasBook_counter

Compression Watch: Transports continue discovery up, Semiconductors too

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports made a big gap up off of the former resistance level we have been monitoring, leading me to wonder if the discovery mode up will continue.

See below:

tranx-01222017

Semiconductors just keep chugging higher.  The chart is ugly, and stretched, but still in an upward ascent.

See below:

01222017_PHLX

Bias Model: Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

Third consecutive week of extreme RCS, meaning, expectation for a calm drift with slight upward bias.  But, it is barely e(RCS), a few basis points lower and we would have a bearish signal.

The signal keeps me cautiously expecting upward drift, but it would not surprise me if volatility creeps in next week.

Here is the current spread:

01222017_Biasspread

V. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“At a certain point, if you chase two rabbits, you lose them both.” – Taylor Swift

Trade simple, one trade at a time, the one in front of you now

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