We quite possibly just saw the high of the session, but I am busy today.  I only had a small window of time to trade and fortunately we pressed into one of my morning levels while I was in attendance.

Nothing fancy here, just took about 7 handles out of the NASDAQ barter and exchange off a homework level:

My standards are high and my expectations are low.  That is this week’s theme.

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after a globex session featuring normal range and volume.  The action was balanced overall while price managed to exceed the high print from last Friday.  Today is a market holiday in Japan–their Thanksgiving.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and Exiting Home Sales at 10am.

The market trended higher last week and featured two trend days, Monday and Wednesday.  Last Friday we printed a rare normal day which featured no range extension.  The session did manage to print a weak, double initial balance low at 4673.50.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4675.75 and test down through the weak low at 4673.50.  Look for responsive buyers at 4667 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push up and take out overnight high 4697.50 and work to take out close the open gap up at 4702.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4703 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4665 and target 4663.  Trade sustains below 4670 setting up a secondary leg down to 4653.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 buyers close the gap up to 4702.50, sustain trade above 4702, setting up a potential run to test above the 11/5 session high 4726.50.

Levels:

Price is set to gap up for the fourth consecutive day on the NASDAQ after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to traverse but hold the Thursday range during globex.

The economic calendar is quiet today.  The only item scheduled is the low impact Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up day.  Price held the upper quadrant of the Wednesday trend day up before extending up just beyond the 11/11 high before two way trade ensued.  Price closed at the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4659.75.  From there look for a move to take out overnight low 4652.25.  Look for responsive buyers around 4646 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press of the open, take out overnight high 4674.75 and press higher to close the open gap up at 4702.50 before responsive selling comes in.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 4674.75 but find responsive sellers around 4684 and two way trade ensues with a gap fill down to 4659.75.

Levels:

Futures are set to gap up over at the NASDAQ after a balanced session that featured normal range and volume.   Price managed to extend higher atop the strong up trend seen Wednesday. At 8:30am Philadelphia Fed data was stronger than expected and Initial/Continuing Jobless claims were worse than expected. The initial reaction is selling.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Leading Indicators at 10am. Energy traders will likely pay close attention to the natural gas storage data at 10:30am as temperatures continue to remain unseasonably warm.

Yesterday we printed a trend day up. Buyers were active ahead of the FOMC minutes, initiating risk, and their campaign continued after the 2pm announcement. The session ended with the market continuing to explore higher prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4651.50. From there look for a move to take out overnight low 4547.50. Look for responsive buyers around 4641 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers cannot close the overnight gap. Instead buyers step in at 4654 and work to take out overnight high 4674. From there buyers set their sights on the open gap up at 4702.50 before sellers are found and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 the market probes above overnight high 4674 and find little interest. Instead responsive sellers quickly knock price back into range and two way trade ensues that eventually fills the overnight gap down to 4651.50.

Levels:

For the second consecutive day the NASDAQ is coming into the session gap up. The globex session featured a slightly elevated range on normal volume. Price spent several hours grinding sideways along the low print set yesterday before a strong buying pushed entered early this morning. At 7am, MBA mortgage applications came in stronger than expected. Housing Starts at 8:30am was weaker than expected but Building Permits better.

Also on the economic calendar today is the Crude Oil inventory at 10:30am. Then we have the high impact FOMC minutes at 2pm this afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. Price started the day out strong but sellers defended the low from last Thursday. As soon as we entered the Thursday range price formed an excess high. After some big chop, sellers prevailed and pressed through session low to print a neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4570.25. Look for buyers to step in and two way grind to ensue until we hear the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 buyers use the gap up to go higher. Price holds north of 4580 and buyers take out overnight high 4589.75 setting up a move to target 4616 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers close gap down to 4570.25 then take out overnight low 4556.25. The profile is thin down here. Look for sellers to accelerate down through the low and trigger a liquidation down to 4514.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

A few months back I started working with Bookmap to better understand order flow.  This product does wonderful things for visualizing the order book beyond a basic depth of market or DOM.  It has made a huge difference in my performance.

Anyhow, despite operating without algos this morning I managed to catch this nice little consolidation break and work a long up through initial balance high, and I wanted to share what I was looking at.  Check it out:

This trade was one of the core ideas discussed last night during Jeff’s online investor conference.  Having this vital trading principle solidified last night already paid off handsomely. Thanks Heffe!

Also: I bought Walmart this morning for a long term investment.  The idea is the exact same as what you see above, only it is playing out on a 10 year chart, not a state-of-the-art order flow chart.  Different fractals, same core concept.  That is how I like to execute.  I booked my short biotech via BIS this morning also.  I hope to revisit this idea from about IBB $354.

The NASDAQ futures are priced to gap up this morning after an evening of balance gave way to buying early this morning. Range and volume are both slightly elevated above normal on a session that managed to push up and test the low from last Thursday. At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data came out slightly better than expected. The number brought in a small spurt of buying that was faded.

On the economic calendar today are a slew of low/medium impact events. At 9:15am we hear the Industrial/Manufacturing Production read. At 10am NAHB Housing Market Index, and at 4pm the Net Long-term TIC Flows. Keep in mind we also have FOMC minutes out tomorrow afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a trend day up. The session started flat and the early attempts of sellers to press lower were defended. Before lunchtime buyers were in control and they continued initiating higher prices through the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4561.75. Look for responsive buyer just below at 4557.25 who work to take out overnight high 4585.75 but achieve little more as the market enters a wait and see grind ahead of tomorrow FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go. Take out overnight high 4585.75 early and press up to target the HVN at 4603.75 before two way trade ensues north of the overnight high.

Hypo 3 sellers become aggressive. After closing the gap down to 4561.75 they set their sights on overnight low 4552. Below here are single prints which price accelerates into, pressing the market down to 4517.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels, note-the gods are testing me this week. Yesterday market profile was broken, today Multicharts is broken. I cannot make this stuff up:

NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap down to start the week after a globex session that featured extreme range on elevated volume. Price opened Sunday evening to a gap down and spent most of the session working higher. The market managed to push back into the lower quadrant of Friday before sellers reemerged.

The only economic event scheduled for today is MBA Mortgage Foreclosures at 11:30am. Keep in mind we also have FOMC minutes scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

Last week price worked lower for nearly the whole week. We had 4 gap down days, including a gap down to start the week.

Friday was a trend day down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory and target the overnight low 4455. Then look for sellers to tag the CHVN at 4450 before responsive buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work the overnight gap closed up to 4502 and stall. Sellers step in but cannot exceed overnight low 4455 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers close overnight gap 4502 then set their sights on overnight high 4517.50. Stretch target is 4533.75.

Levels, note my market profile charts went down this morning. I will update levels once I get them back up and running:

Price is set to open gap down on the NASDAQ this Friday after a globex session that featured normal range and volume. Price managed to press beyond the low set Thursday early yesterday evening before coming into balance. Around 6am a wave of selling pushed another small leg lower. Responsive buyers showed up right around the open gap left behind on 08/17 at 4564.75. At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out weaker-than-expected and the initial reaction is buying.

The only other economic event we hear today is the Primary reading of University of Michigan Confidence at 10am. I have seen the primary read turn the market in the past, especially during elevated volatility, so be aware of this number today.

Yesterday we printed a second consecutive neutral extreme down day. It was the third gap down open on the week and buyers quickly stepped up to buy it. Price managed to close the overnight gap before sellers defended the Wednesday range and formed a sharp excess high. From here they continued working through the entire range to break IB low and push us neutral. The selling continued right up to the bell giving us a close on the low and neutral extreme classification.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap up to 4586.25. Look for responsive sellers up at 4587.75 who work to target overnight low 4564. Look for sellers to target the Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft (AAM) gap down at 4552 before responsive buyers come in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers strong. Close overnight gap up to 4586.25 then take out overnight high 4590.50. Sustain trade above this level and then another leg higher to test the 4600 century mark. After some churn, buyers continue pressing and work up the thin profile to target VAL 4623.25.

Hypo 3 thin ice breaks. Sellers gap and go, take out overnight low 4564 and close the 4552 AAM gap early. Trade sustains below this level setting up a liquidation. Stretch target is the composite high volume node at 4530.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are priced to gap down into Thursday—the third gap down on the week. The overnight session featured elevated range and volume. It started out balanced then sellers pushed in and worked price down to a new low of the week. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out worst than expected. The initial reaction is selling.

After a rough week for oil we will hear the crude/distillate report today—a day later than usual due to Veterans Day. We also have a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. I examined it closely yesterday evening.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap-and-go down. Look for a liquidation run down to test the 4600 century mark then look for responsive buyers. Buyers attempt to work price back up into value above but struggle to regain 4624.75 which sets up a roll and continued move lower. Extended target is 4580.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and work up through 4624.75. Trade is sustained above 4620.75 setting up a gap fill up to 4631.75. From there look for a rotation back up to the high volume point of control at 4638.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close the gap up to 4631.75 early and work up to the top end of value around 4650. They set their sights on overnight high 4653.25 for a test above before two way trade ensues.

Levels: