Around 3:20pm, I sold three longs around S&P 1512-1513.

It was a slow reaction to a predetermined level.  Recall the recent past, my frustration with getting chopped.  I think I brought this frustration into the trading session today.  Even though I set the groundwork premarket, using my clear morning mind, I waited to pare down longs until several handles below 1515.75.  In hindsight, I see the active seller easily dictating price the entire session.  I have excuses, like getting pulled into a meeting.  My VPN went down also, forcing me trade VFR.  And as frustrating as that was, the connection has been spotty since last week.  It should have been corrected over the weekend.

I had a minor victory however.  I had buy orders lined up for RGLD.  Whether or not that trade pops tomorrow morning doesn’t matter.  It was a late play after a series of deviations from the plan.  If you’ve been following along, I also missed my scale in CCJ.  That means I have to eat KRO chicken instead of WFM.

I suppose that’s my observations of my performance.

It was a delicious and powerful countertrend move.  Come on, something had to be done.  The 2013 rip has been massive!  I can’t imagine being Scott Bleier during this, blowing gaskets.  However, it is only a countertrend liquidation so far.  It could be the start of something bigger.  However, diligent and methodical observation will tell us when that’s the case.

I plan to correct going off track much like American Hero Lance Armstrong who was and always will be a legendary athlete and cancer ass kicker:

http://youtu.be/RtZhG2kWVLY

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My portfolio is transforming into a tree hugger’s paradise.  Consequently, I am turning into a tree hugger.  As such, I will turn a blind eye to the black smoke rising from the CREE plant in China and only declare them to be beacons of hope in the corporate quest to save our planet.  I also hate coal especially much now.  Coal makes peoples lungs hurts and trees are like the earth’s lungs.  Therefore coal hurts the earth’s lungs.

Coal also hurt my book three times this year.  Those ne’er do wells at ANR, dastardly folk, refusing to adhere to their seasonality in a timely manner took a decent bite out of my portfolio.  Thus they are evil and hate Al Gore.  How could someone hate the inventor of the internet?

Some of my eco-friendly holdings, because I’m an eco-friendly kind of guy:

CREE, OESX, FSLR, CCJ, and FB

“Facebook!?” you may ask, yes.  They’re led by Mark, the patron saint of eco-consciousness.  He’s decided it would be best to build hundreds of thousands of server racks in Iceland, creating a landscape much like The Matrix, because he can use the cool outdoor air to chill his computer brain.  Never mind you the heat exhaust, we need to take our eco-minded approach only to the extent in which it benefits the businesses we trade.  May many others follow suit and carpet the polar lands with servers.

There are other names to consider.  All kinds of solar names are ripping diapers off the shorts today, exposing their soiled, naked bums.  Other heroes, like Elon Musk and his noble electric TSLA rides should be added to your book.  Vile shorts, when will you learn to love the planet?

I’m off for now to gather roadside trash to burn in my new incinerator furnace.  Raul3’s going green.

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The market is set to open near the highs of last week after a healthy overnight rotation began around 3am. If the bulls are serious about inflicting pain, I’m looking for them to capture 1520 early on and sustain it. That is the land grab required to take this tape on an exploration higher.

I kept my bias lines a bit tight last week to the downside. I gave a general area I wanted to see hold and when we got down to those levels, a bear flag below my bias line had me cutting a few names. In retrospect, and given the tenacity of this Bull Run, I cut the names too early. MOS in particular, I was caught in the rough chop. The trade is not dead. Therefore I’m highlighting a specific level, 1510.50, that I want to see the market close above. If going into the close, we cannot sustain this level, I will reduce long exposure further.

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I’m using my time wisely today, taking advantage of this non-market-but-still-work-to-become-better day to dig into the LED players I mentioned last night.  It is one thing to trade these stocks, but it’s another entirely to invest.  I went through the most recent earnings announcements and news stories from the stocks listed in my last post.  What an uninspiring heap of dung these companies are.

Besides CREE, the other names I mentioned seem marred with mismanagement and poor decision making.  $1.3M this quarter in R&D bro, really?  Who got a new Hummer out of that deal?  I’ve seen these types of operations before.  It’s like adding a biotech cock measuring contest to your business model.  No thank you.

If I have to hold my nose and buy one of these ancillary plays it will be either OESX or GTAT.  GTAT has earnings at the end of this month so I’ll be on the sideline with them for now.  Good chart pattern nonetheless.  OESX has new management in place and is curtailing their R&D foolishness.  Considering their leverage and precarious cash flow situation, if they can go ANDRE THE GIANT this quarter and “get it while it’s here boy” their stock could triple.

On the topic of ALB, they are very virgin to the LED game.  They are a huge chemical company and are kind of awesome.  They’re making the high purity metal organic products needed in LED general lighting application.  This could work out really well for them.  Whether or not it drives top-line growth over-and-above the rest of their business seems less likely but certainly possible.  It’s not as pure of a play on LED lighting.

Finally, I want to add PHG to the LED pool.  Philips is a huge patent holder.  They really bother me though.   A big part of what they’re doing is litigious hostility.  They are going to be on everyone’s ass making sure no patent infringements occur.  Obviously they’re doing this because they sell light bulbs, all kinds, to us and there is a huge margin built in.  It feels like they’re protecting their legacy margins by throwing a wet blanket on LED up and comers.  However, they are a big, “safe” play on LED expansion. I would only pay $24.00 for the stock if I was considering an investment.

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I came about this trade in an around about way.  Here’s the story.

I charted and ranked the seven #Japan stocks I’m watching over on chartpin.  Although going over the setups and getting an idea for how they trade, I’m not exactly dropping everything to build 20% of my cash into a basket of three or four ADRs.  However, a few of the charts are offering decent entries and they’re on my radar going into Tuesday’s trade.

But there’s a bigger play that continues to swirl in my mind.  I bumped into a small Italian man at the grocery because I was staring up and doing Rainman math.

I swam like the wind today.  You may wonder how exactly it is the wind swims.  As I sit here, gingery sipping a hot cup of Red Rose, the working man’s tea, I can tell you unequivocally, the wind swims well.  Swimming and pondering the world I could only think about lighting grade LEDs.  All kinds.

Obviously CREE is the best pure play as they drive the R&D train into the future.  They rock.  I took shares long the day after earnings to wet my beak and it’s run 18% since then.  I would like a dip to add.  In the meantime, these ancillary plays are offering ace entries:

ALB isn’t a pure play, but has a horse in the LED race.

LYTS is in a position to crush competitors and drive market adoption of LED retrofits.  They have several décor and signage offerings, but they tend to build out the design updates with LED lighting systems too.  They have proven the cost recapture and savings a business can receive from switching over. Winner.

OESX does high bay high power lighting and other commercial retrofit work.  They offer financing too, LEVERAGE.  RVLT is a similar idea.  Winner.

GTAT makes sapphire and sapphire making components.  The chart shows a possible inverse head and shoulder bottoming pattern.

LEDS is out there, trading in the penny range, but this company is pretty haggard.  Their website has spelling errors on it and could be a joomla template.  Their CEO even won the ASSHATE OF THE WEEK award.  Avoid and let die.

If you own a company and intend on staying in the graces of Premier Obama, an LED retrofit project is sure to keep you safe from drone attacks on your bullshit BMW 3 Series.

Go henceforth to the charts and get in on the LED action.

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The buyers showed up again in the final hours today to defend the coveted 1514 level. This time around, the price action formed a picture perfect bear flag on the intraday charts, just below 1514.  If you weren’t a bear up unto that point, it may have been enough to bait you in.  Unfortunate for any overeager bears (or shaky bulls), there was no downside.  Instead we saw a squeeze into the bell.

This was an interesting week as we made our way through the 7^th inning of earnings.  Individual stocks are trading all over the place, decoupling from the mild upside action in the S&P.  This is how a healthy market behaves.  Always keep the index in mind, but you must analyze the price action of individual issues.

Major news headlines this week included State of the Union and its minimum wage increase talk, a barbequed cop killer, the complete failure of Carnival’s Triumph, the $HLF meatloaf fight, and a galactic rock smashing into Russia.  No big deal, just another week in the world.  Did I miss anything?  Last summer any one of these items could have cost us 200 Dow points.

This week feels like it had two Tuesdays.  All the puzzle pieces are here.  The three day weekend (from the market, I always work) is an excellent opportunity to regroup and strategize going into the second half of my iBC interim position.  My best ideas come about 15 minutes into a mile swim.  Not at 5pm on Friday.  So I kindly bid you adieu, for king and country!

h/t @dvk1970 for cueing me to the parties responsible for holding up the market this afternoon:

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We had a bout of selling come into the market late this morning, pushing stock prices around a bit.  I raised my cash levels to 9% through the sale of American Apparel and a scale in Angie’s list.  I still like both names.

There’s serious strength today in Trulia and Zillow.  I’ll be keeping both names on my radar going forward.

We’re seeing mixed action in the solar sector.  My new FSLR long is getting engulfed in sell orders.  I’m not overly concerned as the chart continues to look constructive.

It’s interesting the Carnival cruise ship made news headlines today.  After watching the State of the Union last night, and admittedly being a little drunken from Guinness, I was thinking about how stupid we really are.  As a nation, we like to comport ourselves in a manner that exudes civility and order.  All these politicians sit in their fancy rooms and have clapping contests and we all get on with our lives like good first world class citizens.  But it’s all so delicate.  The only thing keeping us from turning into Afghani troglodytes is better weather and landscape.  Put 1000 average Americans in cave country without food and all hell will break loose, everything will become a toilet.  Disgusting.

It’s all pinky up until you’re punched in the face over a Cool Ranch taco.

I better bottom line this post.

BOTTOM LINE:  There’s been a bit of selling but we’re still above key levels.  House hunting apps are all the rave.  I have more cash on hand now than I did earlier today.  Top pick remains TPX.

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Here we are mid-February aka halfway through the first quarter.  Are you on track to earn your quarterly performance bonus?  February is a peculiar month.  It’s short, up here in the north it’s wicked cold and grey, it has the Super Bowl, and it’s a set-the-tone-for-the-year kind of month.  You may argue January sets the tone, but when month two grinds on and the bulls are still pressing the highs, you have to really step back and observe your surroundings.

I do my best work in February.  It’s always dark outside when I get to my office, and it’s dark outside when I leave.  I can drink with friends, but most of them lie dormant like bears most the week.  I could go to the bar, but really I can only expect vagrants and pickpockets.  So I work, then I go home and work.  And before I know it the sun starts hanging around a bit longer and my purse is larger.  It’s a good month.

I’ve made a generous sum of money thus far this year.  A great deal of it was made yesterday on ANGI.  I remained humble to the market and scaled off some profits.  I reinvested the funds plus some into CCJ and GNRC. I got the tingle to sell a little into the close today. Yet here I sat, into the closing bell, unable to part ways with any of my positions.  They all look so good.  Thus I’m riding into the State of The Union address with only 3% cash.  Ah, my lovely three, there you are.

I’m hoping the SoTU, put on by BHO, takes my SoTY, C, and rips it beyond HOD to HOY again TOMM.

Zynga absolutely destroyed chasers today.  It came back to where I added post earnings.  For any home gamers keeping track of where I stand on the name, half of my pre-earnings legacy position in the name is up 33%.  Plus I booked two wins in the name earlier this year (once from the back seat of a wild taxi cab ride), putting bread on the table for myself and my animals.  I feel like I have a good handle on the name this year, and yet, I need to make sure I don’t fumble this third go at the name.

I’m sitting on a big win in American Apparel too.  I suppose I’m mentioning all this winship because I’m concerned with the President’s speech tonight.  People often walk away from his speeches with binary emotions.  Love it, hate it.  And the market can follow suit.  My individual positions look good, the indices look good, the currencies look good, but this event can dick punch me off my high water mark.

So even though I abhor watching the teevee, I’ll have to catch tidbits from this talk.  I may get drunk.  Adieu.

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One piece of the market that is sucking wind today is last week’s high flying social stocks.  While many of these companies get the “privilege” of being at the Goldman Sachs tech and internet conference their stock prices are taking a (s)hit.

Aside from all that noise you need to be aware of how an instrument trades before you hop on board.  Take ZNGA for instance: if you’re surprised when the stock moves 8-10% against you in one day, you’ve never traded this wiry bastard.  Welcome to trading ZNGA, size your position accordingly.

Facebook continues to get the infidel treatment by the terrorists on twitter.  I love the sentiment out there, it’s one of the only things keeping me in this weak chart.  I may get shaken out of this name, or I may get larger, but I’m not yet willing to write this position off as a loser.  And if you recall, I’ve already booked solid gains from the first pump in the name.  Taking scales is what works for me.  I have booked profits cushioning this position.  Bring it on.

I can promise you this, the last place I want to be is holed up in some ugly banquet room, standing behind a table pandering to banksters.  I feel bad for the companies held in GS purgatory.  Many of the employees sent over would rather be enjoying their MJNA, reading comic books and writing code that will soon rule the world.

Except for CREE, they’re all business: buying hookers and cocaine for the GS bankers, making moves.

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Happy Fat Tuesday ladies and gents, seeing as resident trader extraordinaire RaginCajun has taken to the streets of New Orleans to partake in booze and debauchery, and rightfully so, I hope you find your way over to this humble blog.  I love how MCD has always been hip the Christian crowd during lent, offering the double patty fish fillet for all of the righteous gluttons needs.  Let’s get right to the profile and see what the participants are thinking, shall we?

The trading action into the close of last week was no doubt spectacular for longs, as buyers continued gobbling up equity prices like they were on fire sale.  Sellers simply could not keep up with demand without raising prices.  Then Friday came, we had a big storm coming, and all the market managed to do was squeeze some shorts in the AM then pretty much trade flat into the weekend.  Monday the index churned along, in balance, while allowing solar stocks to set up really well and a few social stocks rip rocket higher.

Last night the Japanese ministry reaffirmed their goal to inflate equity prices, and all the excitement led the S&P future contract to put in a very wide overnight range from 1508 to around 1514 as of this writing.

The profiles give us insight into the daily candles being formed.  The two most significant observations I offer you are the thinly traded range below, which could see a retest, and the level where I think we continue to pump higher.  Anything in between can be interpreted as balanced trade, which favors allowing individual equities with quality chart setups to rip.  So you have two scenarios leading to ripping stocks, and one that may give pause.  Decent odds.

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