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Curious Thoughts

Today’s FUCK Is Brought to YOU by the Letter $CREE

You are dealing with a very jaded trader, folks.  It really takes something big to rustle my jimmies.  Being fired from iBankCoin was like coming into my home and kicking my dog.  That just brings out an entirely nasty side of Raul that NOBODY wants to be around.

So here I am, losing twitter followers daily, picking my cursing back up, flipping a middle finger to slow drivers in the fast lane, and BANKING COIN AT ALARMING RATES.

iBankCoin is the ONLY website I’ve trusted to be a beacon of truth for the last four years of my life.  I thought I found my people.  Pirating, profiting badasses.  Then I got fired while pounding the table on winners.

Do you have any idea how bullish I’ve been on CREE?  I’m not going to fish through my archives, Fly’s comment boards, The PPT, and twitter to show you.  Instead I solemnly swear that what I tell you is truth.  I trade real money and I love it.  I’ve blown up no less than three accounts in my quest.  I’ve penned horrible blogs, and good ones.

All I can do is continue down this rabbit hole to wealth and decadence.  There was a day when hitting grand salami’s at a high average earned accolades and a respectful seat at iBankCoin.  Now it earns you a cold cup of soup and a back-alley dick punch.

Yet still, here I am, grinning ear-to-ear.  Back to trading.

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Eating the Bears’ Honey

What a fantastically well day to be long the stock market, fine chaps.  Chip, chap-a-rue!  Looking at all of the indicators on the indices, and the profile development, you may have thought we would see some weakness today.  Certainly the extended nature of the markets as we entered a new month could raise concern.  However, the stock gods (no Buffet) would not have any part in a red Monday in March.  As a matter of fact, they saw fit to make it a rather green day for all the leprechauns peering at the sunrise.

Speaking of sunrise, did you catch my morning thoughts?  I’m sure most of you didn’t and that’s super great news.  I’m really not sure why I share such sage knowledge with you untidy troglodytes.  You’re better off being shown how to maintain proper hygiene, for instance, more than you should be taught anything else.  Anyhow, if you missed it, the plan was to cut long exposure if we traded south of 1509 on the S&P March future contract.  We didn’t, so I didn’t.  Actually, let’s look at what I did today.

Bought and sold RGLD, losing a dollar per share but nothing more

Bought some TRLA around 11am

Scaled some profits in ANGI amidst the HOD spike #flawless execution

Scaled some profits in ZNGA but retain a ½ position #readyformore

Bought CCJ down here on deal, per Premier Obama electing a #nuclear czar

Scaled some profits off on RH, the stock I bought near the LOD on Friday, easy five banger

I must say, all of that action was rather rewarding but at the same time left me parched.  Much water had to be consumed.  I walked to a cool river and drank side-by-side with a grizzly bear.  I noticed he caught a fish, a very tempered fish.  I slapped said fish from his mouth, setting it free into the river.  Then I mounted his fat body and demanded he become my transportation.  His stupid-harry head hung in shame as I rode him back to my trading terminal.  It was a good Monday.

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Piling on the Victories as De facto Cast Away

I’m chopping away at the market this morning, zipping through the internet like an invisible ghost.  I’ll tell you something, I prefer it this way.  Fuck attention I only want to trade well and bank coin.  This site, this site right here, that you’re on, iBankCoin, this site, it was the beacon of truth.  In my eyes, there wasn’t a more pure place for people of the internet to gather and discuss the important matter of accumulating wealth and comporting yourself as a gentleman.

Now, I don’t even know.

Sure, rules were set at the beginning of my interim position.  And no, I did not meet the 3% goal for earning a tabbed home on the site.  Nobody did.  What did I do?

Propel my portfolio to all-time highs

Tell jokes

Spoon-feed winners

Get to the point

And now let me get to the point once again: I’m not going to change my style for internet attention.  I’ll keep writing here or elsewhere, and I couldn’t care less about who reads it.  It makes me sharper, talking to you cretins.

This morning I bought some TRLA and RGLD.  RGLD is already a loser and I’ll be selling it soon.  I told you I don’t like knife catching.  I had a plan based on the most recent swing, it didn’t work out, and I’m looking for a graceful exit.  Note that I used a tiny 1/3 position because I accepted the low probability of success.

I took a loss, BOOM!  It happens.  The key is limiting the downside.

What else?  I took a scale on ANGI during that REDICULIOUS spike up to $18.34, and reported it real time.  Get it while it’s here boy.

Now it’s all eyes on ZNGA.  Adios homos

 

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Raul Is In Limbo

Devote readers, you may have a difficult time locating the Raul blog temporarily.  I have been cast into the Twilight Zone by The Fly.  This is likely due to my insolence and reaction to getting fired while making boss market calls.  As traders we always need to temper our emotions, especially those of the reactionary nature.

Futures are down a bit, but absolutely nothing to get your panties in a bind. I’m looking for a Buffet bounce early Monday. I’ll have specific values and observations manana.

An observer was able to capture this video of me, floating through the internet:

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Bad Seasonality Gambler: HERE’S HOW I MAKE IT UP TO YOU

I went back to the seasonality analysis I performed at the beginning of February to reexamine how wrong of a conclusion I was able to draw from it.  I knew it was going to be ugly because my top pick from the data dig was ANR.  Have a look at ANR’s February performance:

ANR_FEBseasonality

I actually lost some money on that play, taking my third and final attempt at buying ANR as it tried to negate the head and shoulders pattern.  I sold around February 8th aka the trough before their earnings announcement spike, then subsequent melt lower.

The wrongness of my analysis extended further when I predicted it would be a “very shiny February” because my seasonality interpretation supported the idea that miners would be strong in February.  BIG TIME WRONG, check out how awesomely wrong I was on this call:

miners_Febperformance

Fortunately, I never committed any money to this call, I simply observed the play.  Every single chart in the space looked weak which made it easy to avoid.  ANR at least had a semblance of hope setting up in the price.  If you have a dog’s brain worth of technical analysis understanding and aren’t a long term investor, you would have stayed out of the miners this month.  You downright love losing money if you parked your stupid money in EXK for the month.  F-

Please accept my apologies if my seasonality data put a bug in your ear that was whispering false promises about the miners.  If you read along you would have stayed clear, but I understand how people can make rash financial decisions based on other people’s internet decisions.  Don’t do it.

With all of that in mind and because my access to The PPT has been revoked, there will be no March seasonality data dig.  This is likely better for everyone.  I don’t like to waste my time or yours by not adding value to your trading day.

I can’t tell you what will happen tomorrow, and I most certainly can’t predict what will happen over the course of a month.  I work in probabilities.  My probabilities are most reliable in the intraday to 3-12 day swing environment.

I posted all my thoughts on the #socials and their charts if you want some value added.  If you’re over 47.5 and don’t see that the word #socials is a hyperlink, let me be the first to tell you that if you click it you will be taken to a spectacle of charts.  Get excited you fossil.

Finally, I am not a huge fan of knife catching, but the rubber band is stretched out more than my nephew’s tee shirt after a trampoline wrestling match on a few of the miner charts.  I may dabble in the circus arts this week.  Similar setup on both of the following charts (click the charts to HUGE size them)

EXK_MAR2013 RGLD_Mar2013

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Don’t Get Attached To Winners (or Losers)

One of the most damaging mistakes trader can make is becoming too attached to a position.  Maybe they’re fan boys, maybe they hate the person on the other end of the trade, or perhaps their research is so awesome they can’t accept the fact that it was noise.  Whatever the case may be, I think it’s paramount you take on a trading flexible trading style for supporting your thesis.  For me, flexibility comes from scaling out of positions.

Let’s take today’s winner for example.  I put a position on this morning in Zillow.  I wrote a piece a few days back explaining my thoughts on trading this name to the long side.  When the market confirmed my plan with buy flow this morning, I put my position on.  I’ve learned the best trades are hard to grab ahold of.  That was the case today.  I was stalking, and as soon as I saw what I liked I had to jam the order in fast.  The position worked right off the rip, and before lunchtime we are already at my first target.

At this point your mind starts messing with you.

I was expecting this move to take a bit longer than two hours to reach my target, obviously there is a strong demand for shares of $Z, so my mind says, “Aye, take your target and shove it in your cannoli hole.”  My internal dialogue is always in an Italian-Brooklyn tone.  This is me getting attached to a position.  You know what comes next?  A shameover © when the peak forms.

But I’ll be the first to tell you missing additional upside because you’re trigger happy can feel worse than a losing position.  That’s why for me, the best methodology is to scale profits along the way.  Everyone is different, but now I’ve already put bread on my table.  If I want to stick with the position, my cost basis is now lower. Plus when this stock screams higher, I’ll keep getting paid.

I think most successful traders scale, but you don’t hear many of them preaching it.  Define your levels, use the charts, and build and scale your position accordingly.  This will remove any attachment to a single price level, and will keep your mind clearer to make better decisions.

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This is What Makes a Market

There are busloads of chartists and technicians being dropped off daily at the exchanges and they all have their favorite setups they trade.  What’s interesting is how two people can look at the same chart, two people with the same background in technicals, and see a different setup emerge.

It is a constructive exercise to consider what your opposition is thinking, and that is what I’m highlighting in this post about one of my current longs, KORS.  Where I see a buyable dip, another could certainly see this bear flag forming and could be either stalking a short on the break or positioning for such an event.  This is what makes a market, place your bets:

KORS_02282013

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Drinking The Kool-Aid

Ladies and gentlemen I’ve done it again.  The session is wrapped up, the best day of the year for the Dow-as a matter of fact-and looking at my portfolio’s gains you would think I was levered long.  I gained 2.4% today even though I started the day with 50% cash.  Bananas, I know.  I had a couple monsters in my port though.  They did horrible things to the shorts today.

I was in a rather gregarious mood from the moment I woke up today, mostly stemming from the fact that I recaptured my raw tick data on the S&P March future contract.  When it was taken from me last night, it felt like the time my Spanish teacher took my magical deck of cards away.

He caught me shuffling one handed while we watched Salina and snatched the cards cold out of my hand.  I met him after class and kindly asked for the cards back since they were a gift from my parents.  I explained how they traveled to the mystical lands of Las Vegas for the cards, and how it was quite the journey.  I did not get my cards back, but was instead shown the trash bin, where he proudly displayed his work: he had cut each and every card in half.  I learned that day to never trust a Spaniard.

Anyway, with my data in tote and a fresh coat of snow on the ground, I smooth cruised (No Triumph) into the office.  As the day progressed, I started hearing the pump whispers.  It was time to throw out a few #trampstamps:

I was in a gregarious mood then, it carried throughout the session and before I knew it my 50% cash became 30% and I had many more shares of CMG, ZNGA, ANGI, and CREE.  Hell I bought some KORS too, hoping to get elizamae back hooked on that crack.  Now I have a bit of a shameover © because a few of the names lost crucial ground at the bells.  But like a proper bad influence I have BIG Ben handing me a fresh cup of kool-aid, telling me, “ga’head, speculate on the GOOD stuff.”

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No More Bullish Morning Posts

mullThe newest trend sweeping across my blog is the bullish morning post followed by a swift and smooth distribution in stocks.  I step up and buy something in size, like FSLR, wholeheartedly embracing where we are in this rally, and I get wet noodle slapped by the determined sellers.

There is never a reason to fight the market.  There is NEVER, a reason, to fight the market.  Just go with the flow, Joe.

Well you would think my portfolio was getting shredded to bits, given this 20+ handle move lower, but I seem to exist in some kind of microcosm.  I have a few winners buoying me into a nice green day.  Zynga of course helped immensely, I rang the bell and cashed in on some of that.  But I also have TPX aka the memory foam bed.  SIDE NOTE: these are nice beds.  RETURNING TO BANKING COIN: TPX is putting in a solid day, it needed to today or I was cutting the full size position out of my portfolio.  But here it is, going “onward Christian soldier” while the rest of the market dies a pagan death.  That’s quite curious because you get to wondering what this stock could do if a turnaround Tuesday develops.  I may make this a plus-sized model position by feeding it my DNKN cash from last week’s sale.

 I’m not being stopped out of anything yet, the day is still young.  But my least favorite position is Goldman slacks.  I already banked sic [sic] coin in this name.  I should just move along and plow it all into BX.

Sellers have done well.  They haven’t done great until the close us on the lows.  Otherwise, buy the dip mentality steps in.

UPDATE: Sold GS a few ticks > $150 – still feel like a boss.

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FACE NUMBER INTO THE WEEKEND

There you have it folks, this entire week was simply a warm up exercise to get everyone ready for a big pump.  I personally never stretch before a pump.  I don’t think you’re supposed to, but you may want to check with Rhino or Marc David as they actually know how to lift heavy metal.  I don’t stretch before lifting weights because it turns women off.  They don’t want to see your ugly man body stretching.  Stop it, gross.  Grunting and spitting mid lift, of course, is a robust mating call and will cause a flock of zombie-like women to ascend on your person.

We were buyers all day in the house of Raul3.  We bought a little over here (CREE), we bought a little over there (BX and GS), and we bought a little bit everywhere (CMG).  Being long MCD’s Chipotle in a world with Cool Ranch YUM tacos is HIGH RISK.  I don’t advise you do as you see here.  Before you know it our world will become overrun by packs of ravenous zombie people, raiding Taco Bells at 3am for five or six Cool Ranch taco treats.

Yes, I sold a little ZNGA today at 9:50am.  But how was I to know how the day would progress and complete?  That’s the essence of getting it while it’s here.  It is what gave me confidence all day.  Many people need alcohol or cocaine for confidence.  I need to trade well ONLY.  That doesn’t even mean make money, you dig?  Plus I still have a decent sized position for next week’s pump.  Now I go crush all weekend.

It’s been a fun week.  I hope yours was too.  Now we go into the weekend like good consumers.

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