Thursday, November 26, 2015
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I Trust My Money to Good Stocks: You Should Too

Ladies, gentlemen, please…allow me a moment to address the market.

You may not make it down to the Raul blog often, but I reside rather gingerly on the front page of iBankCoin.  I know that my continued existence in these hallowed halls amongst the finest strangers the internet has to offer depends on one very important matter: banking coin at criminal rates.

After exhibiting complacency two weeks ago Friday I have been on the receiving end of a severe bludgeoning via shares of PPC due to a salmonella scare.  I regret to inform you I was forced out of this position today and took a large loss.  Let’s talk about large losses.

This was a ten percent position and I stopped out at twelve and a half percent.  Math:


I lost 1.2% of my account value.  Part of me wanted to ride the stock into earnings for the glory.  I envisioned myself riding into town on a chicken-drawn chariot with plebs laying olive branches on the street.  Upon reaching to town square I would be handed the ceremonial staff to perform a blessing of the populares, restoring balance to the social classes.

But in a rather stoic manner I cut the shares loose.  Because the truth is public perception is fickle.  Many of you are simple, as am I, and lack the resources or time to give a company a full fundamental shake.  I know inputs to making chicken meat are down across the board, but so does anyone else who analysis this company.  Elon Musk set a new standard with his quick assessment and public response to the Model S fire and now I expect the same from all companies.  I get Old Wall Street silence instead.  So PPC and its shareholders can go fly a kite for all I care and I’m back in the sewers, hungry as ever.

I cut LEDS too.  Perhaps the critics were fiddling with their catalytic converters when I scaled 10% profits one day into my campaign.  That would justify tossing tomatoes in my direction when I cut my net position for a scratch.

Finally, I cut SCTY.  Let’s say you love bath salts but all you can find on sale is old fashioned Mexican speedball.  You decide something is better than nothing and in your constant urge for instant gratification you gobble like ten Mexican speedballs.  But since you want that bath-salt-bug-eyed rage fueling your body while you chew arms off hobos, you find the speed only providing an uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach.  That’s why I cut SCTY for a 3.4% loss.

My final move was buying a modest allotment of AMBA shares.  Morgan Stanly flip flops and the investment community dumps Ambarella?  GMAFB.  Well actually, you did give me a break because this was an opportunity to get back on board stock in a great company.  I liked it at 22, why wouldn’t I love it at 20?  I am a buyer of further weakness.

Now I have 22% cash power to buy some blood and a stable of stocks fit for an entrepreneur.  Largest-to-smallest friends, largest-to-smallest like always:

GOGO (huge), LO (+15% what?), ONVO, WLT (Walter), RVLT (a love/hate), AMBA (SAIL!), SFM, CREE, SLW, F, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and the big O

That is a hot look.  I like this basket of stocks.  I have a few names I want to add to the pot to get back to full long exposure but I am content to ride into tomorrow’s spooky trade with some cashish. The Fly’s ALJ has the look, FB is making ATH after hours, and YELP is at a slight discount.

FINALLY: YOU SHOULD COME INSIDE 12631.  There is a free trial tomorrow and Friday ONLY.  I do my best work in there with little-to-no shenanigans.  I would love to see some of my twitter buddies in there.  The password for the free trial will be released at midnight, so you vampires can come inside tonight and kick some ideas around and us normal folk will see you bright and early.

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I Drew The Line Here

This morning I highlighted my bias line and suggested you cut your weakling positions early. Yesterday demonstrated indecision and the gap below offered a tantalizing target for shorts. Heading into lunch the market began selling off and the market cut through the bias line. It’s understandable if you didn’t cut weak names at that point, but when the market failed to reclaim the price it was my sign to clear out weak names:


The action in the S&P was still constructive for the bulls and we found support in the afternoon and reclaimed the important 1420 level.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see bulls testing the sellers’ conviction into the weekend by pressing longs into the weekend.

These elections are too close to watch—I have much respect for all the candidates and their hard work up unto this point, but MAN do I want to win.  VOTE FOR RAUL3!  150th blog post HEY-O!

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Forged From The Financial Crisis

I read this site for over three years before mustering the nerve to comment.  It wasn’t fear of criticism or banishment, but rather respect for what I had found.  I was fresh out of college, had taken two jobs in the financial service industry, found each to be equally vile, and was desperately seeking someone to teach me something.  Academia won’t get you far in this game.  The sage words of battle-hardened traders will.  So I read backward to the inception, and have gone forward daily since.  Fly axioms began to stick.  Words from his wise elders like, “If it sounds too good to be true, it’s a fucking god damned lie.”  Still, I insisted on learning many lessons on my own.  In regard to trading stocks, most of the recent journey has been chronicled within the blogger network where I’m Raul3.  However, I wear many hats.

I won’t bore you with a lengthy autobiography, but will instead tell you who I currently am.  I am 27 years old and without children.  By day I am an accountant in a corporate setting.  Much of what was once tasked to this position I have fully automated.  Instead of touting my accomplishments to upper management, getting some bullshit raise and saddled with more meaningless work, I chose to continue appearing as if I do manual work to keep me busy.  This opens up my eyes to watch the markets.  They love me.  

Outside of my day job I own a business.  It’s more lucrative than my accountant gig and is almost fully automated.  My current and most ambitious project is the development of a portfolio of algorithms that automatically trade future contracts around the clock.  When you’re at home being a good father, I’m tinkering with these bots while listening to flamenco.  They are not HFTs of the dark pool variety, but rather order-flow scalpers using small position sizes of 1-4 contracts to take advantage of statistical arbitrage. 

I own many books, most of which I’ve read.  From the latest hot writers like Nate Silver and Tim Ferris to philosophic Greek scrolls heralded during Rome’s fall, I glean market knowledge from it all.  I’ll read a book on gardening and it will state something like, “A good tool holds its edge…” and I’ll think of my faithful EMAs.  My mind rarely deviates from the markets.

It all boils down to business acumen.  I won’t emulate The Fly like I did in my early blogging.  I will simply offer my views on the market, stocks I’m watching, and the reasons why.  I will toss in some Gaussian analysis of market profile, specifically in the /ES and /6e.  I will keep the opining to a minimum, and focus my efforts on objectivity as much as humanly possible.  Also, this will be my last campaigning post. Enough time has been spent!

Going forward, with our without a paycheck from iBankCoin, I’m going back to writing about what I love. 

Finally, an endorsement from any of the current iBC members would be a supreme honor.  If I’ve added value to your trading life, let it be known to your fellow readers.

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A Sales Pitch? Are You A Salesman?

Believe me, I’m a people person and jokes, oh I love jokes. The funny thing like telling a joke about a clown like Young Gun whose intent is to abandon her third-tier blog and shower us with long paragraphs and sappy R&B is the irony. Capital Overlook is running on a platform that says iBankCoin needs “fresh and new life.” Am I the only faithful reader who thinks iBankCoin is as fresh every visit as the blood spilled today by the fat-fucked investors in Darden Restaurants (DRI)?

Young Gun, I hope I haven’t lost your vote by calling out your subtle words of treason. When the polls open up on Thursday, be sure to cast your vote for a blogger true to the brand, true to the reader, Raul3.

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My Style on iBankCoin

When I’m riding a winner, I’ll mostly taunt the opposition.  For me, the taunts are a way of saying, “I still like this position, in case you’re wondering.”  When I’m in a loser you’ll know where I’m wrong way beforehand, so you’re not left holding the bag.  Case in point, by most recent beast win: PPC.

Pilgrim Pride was highlighted by Fly near the end of the summer.  The media had sold you the story that corn was fucked because news blogs saw how many clicks their corn famine stories received.  Then they did slide shows expanding the sites view count exponentially.  IT WAS A HOT STORY.  And corn prices shot higher and have mostly held the gains.  It was all enough for their stories to hold water, unlike the exhausted soils of corn huskers in Nebraska.

Pilgrim Pride was taken to the woodshed because they had a few tough quarters and with one of their input costs skyrocketing, it seemed a layup to short them into oblivion.  Short interest was high going into earnings.  I had a small position.  I play multi-quarter positions very small (2-3%) until they start to work.  What happened next?  They crushed expectations and the stock gapped up huge.  The shorts were all.fucking.trapped.  It was time to mock said shorts, and build a massive position.  The mocking has continued for weeks, and we may have finally seen the last squeeze today.  Yet I will retain a small, novelty position in the name to remember the de-cocking I partook in.  ARISE!

Some excerpts from Twitter:

It can be challenging to hold winners. Pressing a large position is one of the keys to earning money in the markets. Sometimes a sick sense of humor fits the bill for staying power. Sense of humor and a nine day EMA BEHOLD:

The coin was banked as is to be expected, and was done in the style of our founders: with honor and dignity for the fellow reader while crushing the spines of the opposition.

“I eat more chicken than any man ever seen, yeah” – Jim Morrison, Back Door Man

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Could There Be a Better Popular Vote?

iBankCoin is a beacon of truth in an otherwise thick canopy of click-whore campaigning by media monsters like @seekingalpha. It’s harmless to call out their blatant hack journalism because they add no value to our republic. However, one must take a softer approach to criticisms of equally ad hungry sites like Business Insider. Their staff is connected and adds occasional value to our site. Hence we may scoff their click hungry headlines, but respect the game. To even broach the question of iBankCoin’s loyalty to readers is grounds for immediate banishment, treason in the highest degree. Fly makes a point to kindly tell advertisers who attempt to “correct” his colorful commentary to kindly take their dollars elsewhere and fuck off. Show me a site matching such brilliance, I insist!

If you’ve resided in the mahogany lined walls of iBankCoin long enough, you know insolence toward the members will earn you a short trip to BANNED. This is by design. Through these actions Fly serves us all in building a place where ladies and gentlemen are held to their own merit; a Galt’s gulch of the interwebs but without the ad nauseum lectures on virtue. Instead we bump Mabach music.

Please consider this my formal request for inclusion in the tab battle.

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