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Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

NASDAQ back above 10k, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until the increasingly popular 3:30am hour when buyers emerged and campaigned price up through the Tuesday high. They worked up into last Wednesday’s range before finding sellers who defended the curious support level from that day. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above yesterday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am. At noon Fed Chairman Jay Powell is set to give testimony for his second day on Capitol Hill, today he will meet with the House Financial Services Panel. Then at 1pm we have a 20-year bond auction.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a pro gap up, with open print being in a gap zone left behind last week Thursday. After a tight open two way auction sellers pressed into the overnight inventory and closed the overnight gap. Just a few points below the gap fill was a strong responsive bid and we formed a sharp excess low before pressing clean up through the daily midpoint. Price never went neutral though. Instead price churned above the midpoint for a few hours. Late in the session an attempt was made by sellers to press down through the mid, but they were ultimately thwarted during the ramping hour. We ended the day in the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and reclaim Tuesday’s high 10,001.75 early on, setting up a gap fill down to 9959. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 9916.25. Look for buyers down at 9890.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 10,038.75 on our way to a gap fill up to 10,083.50 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up through all time high 10,155.50 and explore open air.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Strong retail sales data adds fuel to overnight rally, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight poking up beyond 9900 before settling into a balance along that level. Then at 8:30am retail sales data came out much stronger than expected introducing more buying. As we approach cash open, we are hovering just below 10,000, in a slippery gap area left behind last Tuesday night.

Also on the economic calendar today we have business inventories and housing market index at 10am. At the same time Fed Chairman Jay Powell begins his testimony to the Senate banking committee. We have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a sizable gap down. After a brief open two-way auction saw price poke a few ticks below last Friday’s range, buyers stepped in and controlled the tape for the rest of the session. There was a bit of back-and-forth after closing the overnight gap before buyers resumed their campaign higher. Late in the session news came out of the Fed that they would be buying a broad portfolio of corporate bonds on the open market. This introduced a fresh leg of buying. We ended the session along the highs, but still below last Friday’s high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 10,013 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to close the gap at 10,083.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9792. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 9774. Look for buyers right around here and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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On to the September contract, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first full week of active trade on the September front-month contract down a quick -100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price came into Globex Sunday evening gap down and mostly held balance until about 1:30am New York when sellers became initiative and drove price lower. Sellers traded down intot he 05/27 range and chopped inside of it until 3:30am when the first Americans started coming online and working price higher. As we approach cash open, we are back inside of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week kicked off without a gap. The NASDAQ found a bid early in the week and began working higher while the other major indices were flat. The sideways-to-upward action came to an end Thursday morning when a strong gap down was followed by a trend down. Friday was gap up across the board and sellers quickly erased that gap and achieved new lows by Friday afternoon. a late-Friday ramp returned price back near the respective midpoints of most indices Friday ranges before we called it a week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up above Thursday’s midpoint. After a brief open auction sellers stepped in and drove lower, closing the overnight gap and taking out the Thursday low by a few points. Buyers sharply responded here and sent price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the midpoint and worked down to a new daily low before responsive buyers again drove price back to the midpoint during a closing ramp.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and work up through overnight high 9585. From here we continue higher, tagging 9600. Look for sellers up at 9700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 9368.25 setting up a move down to 9300. Look for buyers down at 9254.75.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9100. Look for buyers down at the 9096.75 open gap and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Selective short selling is the plan this week

Sunday research is complete. IndexModel flipped bearish:

According to my trading plan, I am only allowed to short sell in the NASDAQ futures market when this signal is engaged. But I do not particularly feel comfortable pressing shorts this week. I will be taking small scalps off of market profile levels identified in the morning trading reports, looking to capture 10-15 handles at a time.

That is about all I care to discuss right now. It is my birthing day and I must be attending to all my hedonistic desires.

Good day.

Raul Santos, June 14th 2020

Exodus members, the 290th edition of Strategy Session is live. Check out those wild context charts in Section IV.

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Summer drift into Monday, here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second week of June with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume and range. Sunday evening kicked off with price drifting higher, eventually making a new record high and topping out around 9pm New York before making a gentle rotation lower that found buyers up in the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quad of last Friday’s range, a few points above the closing print.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 1-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week the Russell 2000 charged out in front of the other major stock indices and continued to lead all week. The other indices short of chopped along until Friday then rallied hard. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday we printed a double distribution trend up, sort of. The day began with a gap up and after flagging along the highs for about an hour a second leg higher took shape. We then chopped along the highs into the week’s end.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to trade up through overnight high 9875.50 setting up a tag of 9900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 9973.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 9785.25 setting up a tag of 9700 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Obey the robots

The nationalists like to conjure up this image of an evil New World Order where one power controls every region on the globe. It is a scheme, they claim, organized by the ultra-rich in an attempt to like, assert dominance or something.

These are often the same people who believe 5G internet caused corona virus.

They are very special people.

Anyhow, I put my life in Google’s hands long ago. They know every intimate detail about me. Everything. And they are quite omnipotent. I would quite prefer them being our One World Government over nations. Nations and nationalism are precursors to racism and hate.

As you may deduce, my mental wiring is great for trading the stock market. I pull millions of bits of raw stock market data into software, run some statistics and generate trading signals. From there on, my job is simply to do what the robots tell me to. I do this for a few hours a few days a week. Then I can spend the rest of my brief mortal existence living life, making art and doing stuff to make other people’s lives better.

I am spending less and less time on the internet lately. And lately I haven’t had the mental drive to trade. I suppose I will need to reengage soon, but for now I am just sort of drifting around outside.

Models remain bullish. It is roll forward week and there is an FOMC meeting announcement due out. Best to remain sharp.

Back to work.

Raul Santos, June 7th 2020

Exodus members, the 289th edition of Strategy Session is live. Go check it out.

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NASDAQ continues to advance, record highs about +50 points off, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range. Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond the current swing high before coming into a balance. We are still working up into the February 20th range, and as we approach cash open, price is hovering up above Tuesday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a slight gap up. Sellers resolved the gap with a drive down on the open. Buyers made an early campaign up through the Monday high that was quickly met with responsive selling. Sellers probed one point below the Monday low before the auction failed and reversed higher. The rest of the day was spent campaining higher, with price eventually ramping up into closing bell and closing on the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work back down into Tuesday high 9648.25 then continuing lower, down through overnight low 9635.50. Look for buyers down at 9600 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers tag 9557 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers reject a move back into Tuesday range 9648.50 setting up a run up through overnight high 9697.75. Look for sellers up at 9713.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ drifts higher, record highs in reach, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the upper half of Monday’s range until about 2am New York when price began a campaign higher, trading up into the upper quadrant of the February 20th range, a range price has struggled to regain many times. Globex also marked a new swing high, ticking up beyond the last one printed on May 26th. As we approach cash open, price is hovering up beyond Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 42- and 119-day T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down in range. Buyers quickly resolved the open gap after a brief open two-way auction. Then, after taking out last Friday’s high by a few ticks we settled into a really mellow balance, eventually kissing the daily midpoint a few times from the topside before extending the day’s gains a bit. We flagged along the highs into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 9670 on their way to tagging 9700.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to new all-time highs, probing beyond current high 9748.75. Look for sellers up at 9784 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9596.50. Look for buyers down at 9550 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Bobbing near all-time highs, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first day of June with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, initially selling down through last Friday’s midpoint before the auction reversed and came into bid. From there price reversed the initial selling and briefly poked up beyond last Friday’s high. We are off that high since about 4am New York and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing index and construction spending at 10am. Then 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was holiday shortened. We kicked off trade on Tuesday gap up across all major indices. Sellers immediately pressed down into the gap. The rest of the week featured a soft NASDAQ while the S&P and Dow were bullish divergent. The last week performance of each index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a slight gap down that buyers quickly resolved during the opening auction before a strong sell push moved in and took out Thursday’s low. We chopped along this low for a bit, briefly going range extension down before buyers worked price up through the daily midpoint. The majority of the day was then spent chopping along the midpoint. Two attempts lower by sellers were quickly absorbed, eventually setting up a ramp to neutral and a close of the week on the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9577. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 9588.50. Look for sellers up at 9599.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 9600 setting up a move to close the open gap at 9625 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 9450.25 setting up a move to tag 9400 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Dialing back into the markets

Good morning, I hope this message is receiving you in good health and safety.

Part of me is a provocateur of chaos. It is a wild streak that runs through me and as I become older and accumulate more greys in my mustache and beard I’ve developed healthier outlets for these energies.

I dig. I dig and dig and dig like some OCD psycho. I clean the same way. I’ll pull out the stove and vacuum up any old bits of food that have fallen into this mysterious cavern in my kitchen.

What my wild streak really wants to do is help these youths properly riot. Detroit filed one of the most peaceful protests in the country last night. No looting of any kind occurred. Which is a good thing. I am not here to advocate for crime, nor do I think it helps progress the important systematic problems faced by our black community. But these protestors all gathered in the wrong area to do any damage. Down on Jefferson where most every building was designed in the shadow of the 1967 riot. They are cement and windowless. You cannot cause much havoc here. Mayhem must occur up town a bit, where Brooklyn hipsters have carved out little store fronts selling 900 dollar watches and whatnot. These facades can be shattered, looted, lit on fire and so on.

As for overturning cars, a good lever bar will go a long way. Some Archimedean basics can immensely improve you ability to flip cars and bust up cement. Yes, a concrete saw is nice and can split a Buick clean in half, but these conditions call for run-and-gun style mischief and improvised tools.

Again, I do not condone this behavior but a wild streak exits in me that loves chaos. It is not something to be proud of. Thinking about it too much makes me sad. So I garden instead. A garden can be a protest in itself. We can resist the system by growing our own, nutrient dense food instead of buying all that poison at the store. We can live longer, organize, overthrow the patriarch via democracy. We can lean on the justice system to be better. We can boycott places out of business.

On Friday I could not trade I was far too disturbed. The nice thing about my approach to trading is that it does not require me to plot my extremely well developed butt down in front of the computer and stare at charts all day, every day. I go to cash by lunch most days, then I sashay around the yard making my playground more hedonistic and private. Then I made delicious food and take naps. I don’t have steel nerves all day, every day. I can trade well, quite well in fact, for about 2-4 hours a day. If I am maintaining my sleep and excercice and don’t have too many open projects, I can do this five days a week. Right now, it seems I can muster up the mental energy to trade one or two days a week.

Maybe this will change soon. Any long time reader of this here humble Raul blog (hRb) knows that June is MY MONTH. It always has been. It always will be. I look really good in a bathing suit. Like my skin is just slightly olive from having an Italian immigrant for a father, but I am tall and muscle-y because he married a big strong American girl. My mom could pry a cows mouth open and pull its tongue out. Anyways, I also have the perfect amount of body hair. Enough to cover my upper chest and belly a bit, but not so much that my forearm muscles are swamped out by a curly tangled mess. I also am a vegetarian so I don’t carry any unnecessary mass. All of my body is here for a purpose, to work and resist this sick society I find myself surrounded by. June is about being naked and that is part of why it is my month. I look really, really, extremely good naked.

Also June is a big month for gardening up here in the murder mitten, and I happen to be one of the most advanced garden designers in the country.

June is also my birth month.

You cannot beat me in June I guess is what I am trying to convey.

So when May ends so cleanly, on a Sunday, and June kicks of on a Monday, you have to imagine I am a bit excited. I am ready to work. Models are bullish until at least the end of Tuesday. From then onward, we improvise.

I just completed the Sunday research. The NASDAQ Transportation Index is telling a story. I am ready to turn off the news flow and focus back on cold, dead data.

Back to work.

Cheers,

Raul Santos, May 31st, 2020

Exodus members, the 288th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check out that NASDAQ transportation index chart, and to a lesser extent the PHLX chart. Let me know if you have any questions.

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