Victory lap bulls, here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price briefly set a new all-time-high overnight before peaking out around 9:30pm New York. From then onward we steadily rotated lower, trading back down into Wednesday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Wednesday’s high, up in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have Flash PMI at 9:45am followed by existing home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a gap down below prior day range. After a brief open two way auction buyers stepped in and drove higher, closing the overnight gap and continuing into the Wednesday range, tagging the Wednesday midpoint early on and pausing briefly before continuing to campaign higher. Price flagged for about an hour just below prior all-time high before continuing the campaign up to new record highs and rallying right into closing bell.

Trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,478.75. From here buyers continue higher, tagging 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out overnight high (ATH) 11,524 on their way to tagging 11,550.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 11,407 and tag the low volume node at 11,383 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price dropper lower overnight, trading down to a new weekly low before catching a responsive bid. Said buyers steadily worked price back up into Wednesday’s range. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed and as we approach cash open sellers are attempting to reject price out of Wednesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Major chip maker and NASDAQ component Intel announced a $10 billion dollar share buyback program this morning. Share are up about 2.75% in premarket trade.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap down which was resolved during the opening auction. Then sellers pressed lower, tagging the 11,333 volume profile level before finding an early low and beginning to campaign higher. Buyers eventually took out overnight high by a point. Overnight high was also the current all-time-high. Then the auction failed and we saw a sharp sell down through the midpoint that eventually pressed neutral. Sellers defended a check back to the daily mid and we ended the day near session low. Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject price down away from the Wednesday range, sending price down through overnight low 11,221.50. Look for buyers below at 11,212.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory, reclaiming Wednesday low early on and sustaining trade above 11,324.75. After taking out overnight high we discover sellers around 11,370.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 11,400 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, exceeding the Tuesday high for a while and making a new record high print along the way before settling back into the Tuesday range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 20-year bond auction at 1pm and then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Major chip maker and NASDAQ component NVIDIA is set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up and after a brief open drive higher responsive sellers stepped in. Said sellers closed the overnight gap and exceeded it by a few point before discovering responsive bids. Buyers were in control for the rest of the session, first by forming a sharp excess low, then by reclaiming the midpoint, then finally by slowly campaigning higher for the rest of the session and closing at the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,409.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 11,437. Look for sellers up at 11,450 then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 11,374. Look for buyers down at 11,333 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher overnight, unidirectional rotating upward to new all-time highs.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at record highs.

There are no economic events today.

Walmart earnings came out before market open and were better than expected. Shares of Walmart are slightly lower in premarket trade.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up near record highs. Buyers made a slight move higher after an open two way auction. After spending the morning marking time above the daily midpoint, buyers drove a bit higher in the afternoon, eventually tagging the 11,300 level near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tagging 11,350 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 11,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,289. Sellers continue lower, tagging the naked VPOC at 11,247 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up beyond Friday’s range after an overnight session featuring normal volume and extreme range. Price has steadily rotated higher since Globex trade opened Sunday evening. The unidirectional rotation higher took out the Friday high around 7am, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have housing market index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week essentially marked time across major U.S. indices. A bit of selling early in the week, a bit of buying late in the week. The S&P was divergent strong throughout it. Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up in range. There was an open two-way auction off the open which served to fill the overnight gap, then sellers continued lower, taking out the Thursday low and briefly pressing range extension down just after 10:30am. That would be all the seller control for the rest of the week because shortly after going range extension down responsive buyers stepped in and worked price back up through the daily midpoint. We walked back down over the midpoint late in the afternoon but never made a new low of day. Instead we ramped back to the midpoint near settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 11,233.25 on their way to probing beyond all-time high 11,266. Look for sellers up at 11,300 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 11,324.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 11,130.25 setting up a tag of 11,093 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Not much to report on this fine and dewy Sunday. Models remain bullish and continue to call for a calm drift, much like we saw last week. There are some interesting tweets out over the weekend, highlighting super bearish bets taken in the volatility markets last week and others just plumb calling for 50% corrections.

Their sentiment has been noted, and this here humble Raul blog is by no means calling those bets and tweets wrong. But there is certainly no intention to take action based off their tweets. The only tweets that could put a feller like me in action come from either Noble Jack Dorsey or Mankind’s Last Hope our daddy Elon Musk.

Everything else is noise and boy-o-boy is the volume about to be turnt up on the useless noise. Let the games begin. There were two stations around Mothership late last week, set up with large tour buses and hundreds of political signs being handed out, and get this, people were actually taking the signs.

I come from the school of thought that life is too short to allow anyone to hang their sign on me. I’d rather wind up and kick a rock with all my might then hobble over to the ice machine and dip my toes into a cold bath.

Anyhow, there are going to be a lot of people and resources dedicated to breaking through our attention barriers and persuading us to vote for some bullshit that sort of matters but in the grand scheme of things really doesn’t matter at all. I’ll vote, but everything is already predetermined. Our fate was written long before our existence. It is merely our job to maximize pleasure and make stuff look cool before we perish.

Anyhow, I am going to die soon but first I am going to finish digging this kick-ass hole I have going in the back yard.

Cheers to your Sunday. Have a hug and be nice to everyone and I will too.

Raul Santos, August 16th 2020

Exodus members, the 299th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price chopped sideways overnight, chopping along the lower half of Thursday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Thursday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am, followed by both business inventories and consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The session began with a slight gap up and open drive higher. Buyers had price range extension up by mid-morning and defended a lunchtime test of the midpoint. Then they made a new daily high but stalled before taking out all-time-high. Instead responsive sellers reversed the entire morning move and pushed neutral. Said sellers eventually closed the overnight gap before late afternoon action took price back to the midpoint. We ended the session a touch below the mid.

Neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,174.75. From here sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,138/ Look for buyers at 11,100 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 11,237.75 and tag the Thursday naked VPOC at 11,247 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers take out all time high print 11,271.75 and tag 11,300 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was slowly working higher for most of Globex, and even took out the Monday high by a few ticks around 6am New York before tumbling lower. Since then, price has slashed down through the Monday midpoint and as we approach cash open, price is hovering below the mid.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The da began with a slight gap up that was resloved during an open two-way auction before sellers stepped in and drove lower. Said sellers took out last week’s low and nearly tagged the weekly lower ATR band before discovering a sharp responsive bid. We ended the day back above the midpoint, chopping along its topside.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,069. From here they continue higher, tagging 11,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up through overnight high 11,157.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 10,986.50 and tag 10,972.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, grinding along the bottom-side of Friday’s midpoint. As we approach cash open, price is still hovering below the Friday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week kicked off with a gap up across all major indices. Then after a few days of sideways auction price rallied hard Thursday on the wings of Big Tech. Friday we experienced some selling across the board except for on the Russell, which demonstrated divergent strength into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap down, still well up into the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range. After a two way auction buyers closed the overnight gap and even pressed range extension up late in the morning. Said buyers could not, however, extend their gains beyond Thursday’s high. Instead a strong wave of responsive selling pushed in and erased all the day’s gains and pushed us into a neutral print. Sellers rejected an attempt back up into the initial balance and this introduced heavier selling, selling that reversed all of Thursday’s range and eventually tagged last Tuesday’s naked VPOC nearly to the tick. We ramped into the bell but still closed in the lower quadrant of Friday’s range.

Neutral extreme, barely.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 11,156.50setting up a move to tag 11,200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 11,073 setting up a tag of 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 11,023.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Make no mistake, any position bought in the stock market or cypto land with the intent of being sold in less than 10 years is a gamble. It is gambling and if you do not take it seriously then it is at best an expensive hobby. There will be little flashes of glory, but those will be overshadowed by the long and bleak cloud of degradation and waste. Most of the waste will accrue in the form of time. The time you wasted losing your money, when you could have just set up the slow cooker then gone about more better money making affairs, man.

I dunno what you, the reader, what your purpose is. Mine is to extract as many fiat american dollars out of the global financial complex as possible. Said funds are then to be converted into real assets like land and cement and elaborate plumbing. Greenhouses and irrigation and means of production that cannot be stripped from me. My willingness to work hard cannot be taken. Only if my flesh and bones wither and my body is rendered lame. Only then will these real assets lose their luster.

That is why, beyond building now while I am extremely strong of constitution, my purpose is to automate as many tasks as possible or otherwise build them so effectively that an 85 year old with a bad back and hip can maintain them without undue suffering.

Me I like to suffer to a certain extent. I seek pain and discomfort. All forms. Mental and physical. I am a student of discomfort and the information it carries.

Goodness, another Humble Raul aside has been typed. It is a wonder anyone reads this derelict blog.

Anyhow, every model that helps me decide when and how to gamble is telling me to press my longs for at least five more days. And that is how I build my entire strategy. From the top down then from the bottom up then from the top down again.

On Sunday I do my best to forecast the next five trading days. Every morning I do my best to envision the next few hours. Every time I enter a trade I do my best to define my targets, when the trade would be proven wrong and whether the reward for assuming such risk justifies my SPENDING TIME taking it.

I work too hardt but you know what? The harder I work the more opportunity just seems to appear. There is nothing to envy here. No hustle porn even. Just consistent work.

You don’t want to work? That is fine too. I don’t want to work. I am all about Universal Basic Income. I’d sit around all day building fountains and waterfalls and listening to the sounds they make.

But for now we live in a fake capitalism and the path of least resistance is to out work your competition when you are of stronger constitution then them so you can sit back and spend your time writing and building fountains when you’re old and weak of flesh.

I am going to die soon but for now I work.

Raul Santos, August 9th 2020

Exodus members, I really loaded this week’s strategy session, the 298th edition. I think I’d be a good idea to check it out.