NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up a quick +100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price slowly pressed higher overnight, working back to the Wednesday midpoint and then exceeding it as we came into balance. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out twice as bad as expected. As we approach cash open, price is churning along the Wednesday midpoint.
Also on the economic calendar today we have durable goods orders at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down near a new weekly low. Buyers were first to act after the open, nearly working back up to the composite VPOC at 7700 before sellers stepped in and reversed the auction. The rest of the day was spent working lower. Maybe the day type could be classified as neutral extreme down, but given the range covered and overall structure of the profile, it more resembles a double distribution down. The day ended down near last Wednesday’s low.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7437.50. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7433.75. Look for buyers down at 7357.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 7216.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 7596.50 and tag 7612.75 before two way trade ensues.
Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:
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