I have little by way of commentary to add to the current economic narrative on this last Sunday in November. Which is fine, less is truly more when it comes to investing.
The lot of yous would be better off fully investing your portfolios long equities and forgetting the pass codes to your brokerage accounts. But yet many persist, trying their hand at active management, shorting companies like Amazon and expecting the whole system to revert back to some symbolism of reality they perceive more true than the collective reality demonstrated by Big Tech valuations.
Which is fine, as long as you aren’t a dick. If you are a dick or jerk or whatever, that is fine too—the final outcome of such behavior ought to be no surprise though. People will drift away. Maybe that is fine too.
Oh wow this blog entry has taken a morose turn. Listen, we are from the school of thought here on the old Raul blog that people are in general good. And since humanity, despite their blood lust and greed, is in general good, that means their creations will continue to grow. Big Tech is their most impressive creation to date.
It was not long ago, not long ago at all that World Wars were a thing. Marching by foot and horse into foreign lands and claiming them as your own. Now the war is economic. Which is much less violent but a war nonetheless. Less blood lust, same greed. To gain control of foreign lands, all of them.
The war is being won by companies like Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet, Inc. Because they have no sworn allegiance. They have a seat at the proverbial “table” without the messiness of being public servants of tyrants. Their only obliged responsibility is fiduciary. Economic warfare. War for moneys.
And while we call the entire notion of money into question with bitcoin and barter systems, there is no denying that this Grande Illusion has served to placate some of the most restless factions of our society. Money and drugs.
This is all fine. The economy is strong and owning capital goods like property and stocks and bonds and classic cars is a decent way of participating in the economic expansion.
So as we near the end of the decade, I am inclined to channel my own hedonism into making good food, enjoying spirits with family and friends, and allowing my investments to work while I idle around town spreading holiday cheer.
What is your plan this holiday season?
Final note—models have all flipped neutral into this last, holiday-shortened week of November. With no systematic reason to push bets, the plan is to scalp key levels and otherwise chill.
Raul Santos, November 24th, 2019
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