I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,782 Blog Posts

Important weekly matters out of the way, here’s the 2nd of May NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight after continuing to slide lower for a bit following Wednesday’s afternoon sell-off.  Price dropped to a new 7-day low before catching a bid near last Monday’s (4/22) high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quad of Wednesday’s range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out weaker than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have durable goods and factory orders at 8:30am followed by both 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

All of the important tech earnings are complete for the week.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap up into the Monday midpoint.  Sellers were unable to fill the overnight gap during the opening two-way auction.  Instead price began working higher, pushing range extension up in the late morning but buyers were unable to test beyond the Monday high.  Instead we came into a balance formation and awaited the FOMC rate decision.  First reaction after the announcement was up, it took out the daily high by a few ticks but again could not test beyond the Monday high.  Instead we had a failed auction.  Reaction two and three to the FOMC rate decision were down and this triggered a liquidation that probed down near Tuesday’s low.  We ended the day near low-of-session.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7800 setting up a move to target 7831.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7732 which resolves the 4/22 gap at 7734.75 (we tagged this level during globex but not during cash)  and continues lower to 7728.50 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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