Well well well, the model has shifted bullish. But not china shop, busting cases full of dishes, rambunctious bullish. Just drift. Summer drift.
Summer has certainly rounded the bend. Anyone who regularly watches the sunrise knows daylight hours have drastically shortened. I find myself halfway through my AM rituals before the great power plant in the sky rears up from the horizon.
“Day by day, tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow, life creeps on at its petty pace.” The passage of time.
There are cues of the insect variety also. Cicadas and crickets by the thousands have emerged across my small patch of the American dream. They’re chirping, and if you listen carefully you can hear what they’re saying, “Winter is coming. Chirp chirp sucka.” The university campuses are heating back up. Hungry minds seeking knowledge. Good for them.
Out here on the internet, inside the machine, it’s still about kill and eat. The same game we always play. My heart…
Meanwhile our private equity Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be meeting with other ballers out in Jackson Hole starting Thursday to talk economics and hopefully fill their lungs with fresh mountain air. They need to stay clear headed as they attempt to invisibly guide an economy that is working, and picking up speed. Nobody knows how this is going to end but damn does it feel good.
The bill always comes due.
We made it though another round of earnings. The biggest players saved the market every time it started to look a bit weak on the charts. The thing is, a price chart cannot entirely bake in the power of economic expansion. As long as the huge companies are showing growth (Walmart, Apple, Google) it means we are expanding. That means up-and-coming businesses (like Tesla) can continue to succeed, and the stock market can continue to post gains.
Have you ever played Monopoly? The game was designed to teach a lesson about capitalism. That in the end one person controls everything and everyone else is left to be poor. It is a fun game. It is the power of vertical integration and economy of scale that we must inevitably face. As far as I can tell, there is no better social simulation. It fits the human nature best.
Greed is good.
Greed isolates the extremely successful capitalist. Whether or not that’s seven digits in a bank account and another 100k in the safe is for you to decide.
What drives most people doesn’t make me blink. Wealth is freedom of time and a better life for the kids. How many sequoia trees you own?
So when these finance bros flash boats or exotic cars or mansions, good for you. I will not be made to consider you dominant.
Let’s cross paths in a boreal forest and see who has bitch in their eyes…
But we can all work as a team. We have no choice. We’re all in this together. There is no reason we should be driven by the same desires.
Models are signalling a calm drift during this final full week of August. A beautiful month it has been. As we round the bend, I can feel how much progress I gained on my competitors during a month filled with distractions.
Let’s harvest some rotations from the market this week and replenish the grain storage. Winter is coming.
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