I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,231 Blog Posts

Robots Ignored: RAUL Overrides The System

Salutations from the trading floors at iBankCoin laboratory!

Despite the latest readings inside Exodus Strategy Session indicating bearish conditions for the current week, the work horse of our operation, RAUL, improvised early Monday morning.  He determined that, given the strong gap and drive higher, the best course of action was to delay any short selling, selling of current holdings, or hedging.

Until sellers present themselves no selling of any kind will occur.

*  *  *

Sometimes a quantitative formula cannot see what the human can.  Think about your GPS, for example.  It may think the best route home is the highway.  The GPS may know a ho chi minh trail exists that offers a similar ETA, but it defers to the major roadways.  What it has not accounted for is the pop-up thunderstorm that came through 20 minutes before rush hour, and how soon its maps will be filled with volume delays.  Google maps cannot see these nuances.

Nuances are how humans continue to confidently lord over the robots.

In trading it’s called context.  And context is the difference between a competent trader and someone who thrives.

When more experienced market practitioners used to talk about context back when I was a fucking n00b it used to irritate me very much.  They sucked at describing it to me.  They could not present context in a way where I could mimic them.  In hindsight, and slowly, it is starting to make sense to me why they struggled to make context into a consumable lesson.

I did my best to codify context into something actionable.  It is called switchboard.  It is nothing more than an excel spreadsheet that has several switches for the various ‘contexts’ I’ve come to value over the years.  It looks like this:

It would be a lie if I told you all key context is contained in switchboard.  Context also comes in the form of news flow, geopolitics, seasonality, sentiment, and other intangibles.

*  *  *

The kind scientists at iBC labs are not thrilled to see our trading element ignore our weekly findings, but RAUL has presented us enough information to enact a manual override.  It is our duty to ensure he maintains protocol during his improvisational performance.  Should the mother algo inside Exodus generate a Hybrid Chg % reading of greater absolute value than Monday, a short bias must be reengaged by any means necessary.  Historically, we have been forced to use draconian measures to contain the spirit animal inside RAUL.

Until further notice, the bearish bias issued Sunday afternoon is not live.  We repeat, not live.  We are in a no-go-short zone.

carry on

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