NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume. Price worked down near the 10/17 low but could not break it before catching a strong bid and working into balance.
At 8:30am GDP data was strong but underlying Personal Consumption was weak. More details here. Also on the economic calendar today we have the final reading of U. of Michigan confidence at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a trend down. After opening gap up, near the Wednesday high, the market had an early drive down. By late afternoon a second, initiative wave of selling began and ultimately accelerated after the bell, during settlement, post-Amazon earnings.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4807. A bid shows up around 4800 and we settle into quiet, two-way trade below 4830 and cruise into the weekend.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers take out overnight low 4788.50 and target 4780.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up off the open, take out overnight high 4822.50 and test 4843.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 4 strong buyers work up to 4853.75 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
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interesting. a mixed bag of hypo 1 & then 3 ?
Yup
Wild fucking ride. I got a ES sell signal right around the 2140ish area… had no idea it would lead to a Clinton waterfall
That’s why we just take our trades, manage our risk, and occasiocasionally catch big moves. They make a big difference on your expectancy stats. Good form sir