NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price took out the Wednesday high overnight before trickling lower for the remainder of the night–working back down to the midpoint of Wednesday’s range. At 8:30am a slew of economic data points were released including Advance Good Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Annualized GDP, Personal Consumption, and Initial/Continuing Jobless claims. Data was mixed overall, perhaps slightly better than expected.
Also on the economic calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The market opened with a small gap up which sellers quickly closed. Sellers continued lower, working down into Tuesday’s trend day but finding responsive buyers in the trend’s upper quadrant. Said buyers became initiative later in the day after working price up through the entire daily range, pushing out through the other side of initial balance and closing the market near session high to earn the ‘extreme’ designation.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4867.25. Buyers continue working higher, up through overnight high 4876.50 and work up to the open gap up at 4886.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers close gap up to 4867.25 and find sellers who push hard and send us back down through value to take out overnight low 4855. Buyers defend ahead of Wednesday low 4844.75 and two way chop ensues.
Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through overnight low 4855 then work lower to target 4834.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 4 full on rally, close gap 4867.25, take out overnight high 4876.50, close open gap up at 4886.50, the probe up through current swing high 4892.25. Look for sellers up at 4900, then 4907, then finally at 4916.25.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
Saw sellers take a break near yesterdays low and mondays globex POC, was great for a few nasdaqs but was impatient and missed the larger move.