Futures Continue The Slow Walk Lower

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The session was balanced, overall, but price continued the trajectory set last Thursday, which is lower.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came out slightly better than expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories at 10am and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.  Also, the gravity of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC rate decision is likely start altering the behavior of the market place—putting price into a wait-and-see range.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  We came into the week gap down and buyers made a spirited push off the open.  They struggled to sustain priced inside last Friday’s range, printing several excess highs.  The final blow came just after buyers pushed the market range extension up, by 2 points, then fell back down to daily mid.  Sellers stepped in and pushed us neutral.  After a another return to the daily mean, price pushed lower and closed on session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4418.25.  Look for responsive sellers up near 4430.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 4420 after closing overnight gap 4418.25 setting up a move to 4450.

Hypo 3 sellers defend ahead of 4418.25 setting up a move to target overnight low 4397.50 and triggering a liquidation down to 4367.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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