Too far, too fast sentiment is strong both in stocks and oil.
National angst is through the roof. Warm weather rolled into northern city centers, agitating the populous and stoking the angry political types into riot mode.
Turning our attention to data, which is an objective judgment of the current facts, my bias model generated its highest reading ever.
Typically high reading indicate the lens of index price has been painted a lovely rose hue, skewing investor perception ahead of the proverbial rug pull, the ebb, the down move if you’re not into idioms.
But when the model scores really high [past performance is not indicative of future results] the market has continued higher the following week.
It would be selfish to hoard this data, since you all have supported me on my path to trading excellence. The other dates logged in the model where bias score has skewed extremely high were:
- 02/22/2015
- 04/27/2015
- 10/18/2015
- 03/06/2016
Here’s every score, to date:
Finally, and the kicker that could trigger an explosive move, we have an FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon, WITH a Janet Yellen press conference after. Consensus is for The Fed to keep its key borrowing rate unchanged at 0.50%. I could see a surprise 12.5 basis point rise triggering a move higher.
All the pieces are in place for a rally. Whether or not it materializes is, as always, TBD.
See also: The Dow Jones Is Forming The Wedge
Members of Exodus. The latest Strategy Session has been published. Be sure to check it out. Feel free to ask me anything regarding it, inside Exodus or on Snapchat: VCali
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
2040 to 2050 is probably a good short zone.
Picture editor: +1
The “Spring Fever Rally” has long been a problem.