September was a great month for selling the market short. Even for my intraday gaming—the speed left lots of room for me to be in-and-out, capturing 6-10 NASDAQS at a time, in a matter of minutes.
The general uneasiness that speed creates also gave me conviction to press a position short in BIS. I barely got the position on since it never pulled into my wheelhouse. I do a few things well. One is always treating news driven moves the same. The biotech move lower was triggered by a Hillary tweet.
Pop Quiz: What is our expectation on news driven moves?
A. Expect price to return to the ‘scene of the crime’
B. Kiss the level goodbye
Once tape speed left and my morning report forecasted chop, I lost my conviction in the BIS trade. Then I had Exodus flagging oversold, constructive conversations with the 12631 crew on the bull case, and lots of buy programs hitting the NASDAQ. I objectively cut my starter BIS position.
Finally, I wanted to make a note about the extreme NYSE tick reading we had today at 1:12pm. This tick classifies as a ‘party pooper’ signal meaning, per my observations, they happen at or near the end of a move. The market is behaving much differently than I have seen over the last few quarters, so I am skeptical of calling a top here.
That, and after going on a wicked winning streak, Rose Colored sunglasses has take two hits. Such is the nature of an 87% win rate. Even a win rate that high has a statistical draw down period. There’s no sense it trashing the model because of this. But, it may be whispering about a change in character developing in the market.
Sometimes a signal not working tells us something too.
I know this post is a hodge-podge of thoughts. I am weary, but this is all important, thanks for sticking around. The answer to the pop quiz is A.
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jesus christ. Some people are eating dinner here
If you look closely, the affect is achieved using bacon
Dat $TICK tho.
What’s the absolute value threshold you look for that suggests party over?
I noticed it happened right as we hit a monster patch of $ES_F buy stops at $2000.
3rd sigma. I took 6 years of tick data and determined what level contains 99.5% of all occurances. Thus any time it’s exceeded you are seeing a truly extreme tick.
Ok I changed the pic to a more family friendly Jeremy Bentham head.
much better.
lol