I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,121 Blog Posts

Chunking A Few Scenarios

Nasdaq futures saw an active session overnight with both range and volume coming in a bit ahead of normal. Price spent most of the evening pushing lower until finding buyers ahead of yesterday’s cash session low 4386.50. Since then, we’ve spent most of the early morning working higher.

At 8:30am, Housing Starts came in a bit worse than expected and Building Permits a bit better—thus the data was mixed. The initial reaction to the news is buy flow. Aside from those events, the US economic docket is empty for the day, and investors are likely focusing on tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC Rate Decision.

Yesterday the market opened pro gap down and saw an aggressive liquidation-type push lower early. The price action exceeded last week’s low 4390.25 before finding a sharp responsive bid. After a thorough churn at the 4400 century mark, intraday responsive buyers became initiative and we spent the rest of the session grinding higher. Buyers managed to trade up to the 06/09 open gap left behind last week Wednesday when we opened gap up and trended higher. This action exhibits the continued methodical manner by which our market is trading—very healthy overall.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 4426.75. This sets up a push above overnight high 4428.75 and puts buyers well on their way to closing the weekly gap up to 4448.25. Look for sellers to defend last Friday’s range low 4440.50. Gauge short term control on whether buyers are able fully close the gap up to 4448.25 or if instead they fizzle out ahead of it.

Hypo 2 buyers push into overnight inventory but stall around 4421.50 and price rolls over. Sellers target overnight low 4395.75 setting up a test of Monday’s session low 4386.50. If buyers cannot defend then look for liquidation to take hold and push price down to 4360.50.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 4395.7 5early and push to 4360.50 where we find responsive buying.

Hypo 4 churn takes hold, as investors wait for tomorrow’s FOMC decision, between 4433.50 and 4396.25.


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One comment

  1. MBull

    These morning analyses are invaluable, will you be posting again in the future?

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