Nasdasq futures are about flat as we enter US trade. After printing a neutral day yesterday we spent most of the overnight session drifting higher. This drift took us just above yesterday’s MID to test the volume pocket just below 4450 before finding responsive sellers.
Those responsive sellers starting working ahead of the 8:30am data dump, which included CPI, Durable Goods, and Initial/Continuing Claims. Overall it was a balanced session with a slight upward drift on normal volume and slightly compressed, but normal range.
Also on the docket today is some Fed repo activity from 9:30-10am, at 10:30 natural gas storage stats, at 11am the Kansas City Fed MFG activity, and at 1pm Fed’s Lockhart is set to speak. We also have GDP stats out tomorrow pre-market.
Our last three day’s overlapping value are just like last week’s Monday-Wednesday. Last week it turned out to be a time-style correction before we legged higher Thursday and Friday. Coming into today, Thursday, we have essentially the same look—three days of overlap atop a rally. The nuance is yesterday’s neutral print.
Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap fill down to 4437.75. That opens the door to take out ONL 4435 and test the low of our 3-day balance 4427. I will look for responsive buyers to defend and trade up through the ONH 448.75 air pocket to 4450 to target a new swing high 4461
Hypo 2 buyers cannot defend 4427 then we continue lower to target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and stretch to 4413 then 4399.50.
Hypo 3 is we stick inside the 3 day balance and continue sideways between 4450 and 4430.
Levels can be seen below:
Short Friday