The Nasdaq has come into balance. Overnight prices traded a good portion of the balance zone, testing upper and lower value, and ultimately are trading near the midpoint as we head into Tuesday’s trade. Markets started moving around 4:30am when the UK released mixed-to-worse-than-expected Consumer Price data. The biggest rotations have been to the sell side but overall the session is neutral.
Any move away from our three-day value zone is now suspect with the approaching FOMC minutes tomorrow afternoon. The market is always trying to do something, even when it waits, and according to my contextual read it is trying to trade lower. However, it is not doing a very good job. Sellers pressed on the bid for most of yesterday’s session yet prices sustained above value. There is a poor low in place now [a double low vulnerable to breakage] and value drifted lower [VPOC] verses Friday.
Trying to go lower, waiting for new information, thus not doing a very good job trading lower is the short of it.
I have highlighted these observations as well as key price levels on the following volume profile chart:
do you view this more as front running of FOMC or as a shake-out lower before FOMC giving the market an excuse to go higher?
we view it as balancing until new information provides direction.
As for this morning, I am cautious about fading this move, even though I consider it suspect. The open drive has me off the idea of any shorts/hedges until I see more committed sellers
Well done with SUNE
thanks RC