Let Us Have Another Go at This Market

Traders are coming into the week with the Nasdaq futures up a bit on this Columbus Day session.  The globex market opened Sunday evening and showed some continuation on Friday’s weakness which made sense considering how we closed on the low tick of the session Friday afternoon.  Prices began to recover their losses a bit around the time European markets opened up.  The economic calendar is a bit slower this week and back loaded, with the highest impact announcements coming Wednesday (Advanced Retail Sales, Fed Beige Book) and Friday (U of Michigan Confidence).

Turning first to the daily chart, we can see just how weak the market has been since the Alibaba IPO.  Correlation does not indicate causation, however, we also printed a failed Nasdaq auction on the day BABA came public.  Since then we cannot find a sustained bidder in the market.  Instead we continue exploring lower, like Columbus, in search of buyers.  I have noted the activity below:

Becoming a bit more granular and observing the 15-minute chart, we can see how balance began to form at the start of October despite the failed auction and inability to string together two up days.  It was a violent form of balance dating from Oct 1 – last Thursday.  Friday we opened on the lower range of the micro-balance and rejected it, starting anew the discovery process.  I noted in purple how the market made a strong bounce and ‘rechecked’ the scene of the rejection where if verified seller control.  I have noted this as well as the key price levels below (dating back to June) and above:

I am in development of a new market profile chart this week, thus I will primarily focus on the intermediate term chart these first few days of the week.  I am also allowing Xfinity a second chance as I start the week after their linesmen and women demonstrated some of the highest customer service I have seen over the weekend.  Thus, I will be a bit hands off until the systems prove stable.