Unrest into Quarter End

There you have it, anther quarter in the books and it was a doozey.  We saw everything from new tech to the uprising of our fellow man in China, the hands who build new tech.  Yet there is still more to come, another freight train barreling down the tracks.  Are you in its way?

Said train is your ego, the source of your emotional indecision and impulse.  The more you begin to understand it, the better you can see how big a beast it is compared to your more logical and academic self.  You ego can curb stomp your intelligent face with its elephant boots.

These are fast market conditions at quarter end.  The macro tides are bigger than you might have ever seen depending on your experience level.  Now is not the time to increase your average trade size.  In fact, reducing trade size might be enough to knock your ego down a few pegs and start your back on the path to operating these markets.

I have done very little this week and last.  Committing to anything longer than a few hours is a challenge.  Look at yesterday’s pick, Zillow, poof, practically dead out the gate.  Perhaps the same will happen to today’s pick, AMZN.  I can’t worry about these external events because I have no say in how they pan out.  I can control risk and continue taking the trade setups that have worked for me in the past.  The rest is fate as they say.

The Russell looked exceedingly weak all session.  There is a new happening about the market where rips are fantastic opportunities to liquidate upon.  Every rally has been met with strong supply.  Someone wants out.  You call it ‘rebalancing’ I call it, get me the F out of the stock market.  Fortunately it has only resulted in one highly correlated dump off so far.  Tomorrow could change that.  Or, it could do the exact opposite.

Listen, I will discount any and all fear mongering associated with Israel, Uncle Vlad, or the USA.  But when Hong Kong unrest heats up, I take note.  These people are untested for many 100 years.  They always bend the knee to their commie overlords.  What if they don’t this time?  Every skirmish of my lifetime would pale in comparison to an Asian battle.   Meanwhile they all ‘enjoy’ watching Jack Ma earn more than the last 200 generations of their friends and family.  Some will feel empowered, others rebellious.

Thus, I am cautiously neutral.  Funds have been shifted into my futures account where I intend to be much more intraday until we see some resolution.  As for my October risk, it is Martha Stewart committed, if that makes sense.

Stay nimble my friends.

 

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