That title was my attempt at the driest headline ever. The anti-click bait because I don’t want non-core readers peering too deep into my mind.
– Raul
My feel for index future trading is warming up this week as I continue to focus the bulk of my day trading activity to the /NQ. I have been the beneficiary of these large ranges, capturing a good portion of the range with my trades.
What’s working?
- Staying on the right side of the market – it was much easier to take longs today
- Wide EMAs – when my exponential moving averages are wide I have a greater edge
- Modest price targets – getting a scale off at 1.5 points builds a ton of emotional capital, allowing me to manage the remainder of my position better.
- Taking cues from the /ES but trading the /NQ
What’s not working?
- Stacked EMAs – my edge deteriorates when my EMAs converge too tight (CHOP!)
- Afternoon trading – I took two meetings today. Afterwards I could not focused and botched a trade
Midweek progress:
33 trades, 25 wins, 76% win rate
Goal:
50 trades, 75% win rate. I can build size onto this. 50 trades is the minimum threshold to consider any set of data to be statistically significant.
I have to keep in mind that trading opportunities are much more bountiful in this wildly indecisive tape. Large daily ranges certainly benefit day/scalp trading.
About half of my trades last less than one minute it is beautiful my friends, instant gratification that would satisfy the most impatient gambler.
I put out a quick note on the /ES this afternoon when a large divergence occurred between the cumulative volume delta and price. That turned out to be a solid trade signal. I have noted the occurrence several times now and it now merits a proper backtest. Just add that to the ole ‘to do’ list.
My book is up 1.25 percent today led by LEDS which is back to my cost basis and GOGO which is just marinating ever so nicely. Zillow traded nicely too, making a move which is still of the dead cat variety but I will take it.
The most troubling news today came inside the premium halls of iBankCoin, where an esteemed member of our secret society informed me ADHD in fact develops non-stimulant, non-amphetamine medicines for treating ADHD. I share my thoughts for record keeping purposes and also to solicit feedback from people I know are much smarter and more informed then I am. That blows my core thesis to bits and I am now trading a stupid price chart with no back story. Damn those Israelites for having the best ticker symbol ever and lacking the amphetamines to back it up.
Every day I want to buy TSLA and SCTY because Elon Musk is the best CEO of my lifetime. He sets the standard for corporate communication, scientific acumen, and risk tolerance. Instead I go out and play the Chinese lotto and buy crap stocks like LEDS and ADHD. In short, I want to focus down to my core and start buying TSLA and SCTY.
LONGS, sized largest-to-smallest:
CREE, ONVO, RVLT, USO, LO, Z, GOGO, ADHD, LEDS, CLNT, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O
Cash 10%
I’m reposting Eminem because he crushed all these little boy rappers:
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What about lacking amphetamines destroys your thesis?
My thesis was built around a pop culture reference
As a recent grad I can tell you that these kids need amphetamines.
I know a guy who works at the book store. Ask for Chuck
Nice post! Guess regarding the question – given what I’ve heard from current college students the legal attention deficit drugs(+amphet) are extremely useful for studying, writing papers, etc in college where you need to focus for hours and stay awake. Using thesis and amphetamines in the same sentence was correct. I would guess a non-speed based ADD drug would not be very popular.
right, in the college grind and the vices of social circles the non speed alternative would be a dud
Just checking in & marking my spot as a ‘core’ reader. The thesis of a non-meth ADHD drug may not work in regards to the college crowd & chubby MILFs, but it could still have a tremendous market in the little children. I had a colleague tell me of how their misbehaving child was mandated to take Adderall or face expulsion. This isn’t uncommon. An alternative would be welcome by many a wary parent with health insurance. And with said insurance being mandatory soon, I would think even more of the chemical babysitters will be prescribed in the future…after all, they’ll be ‘free’…
Tough being a kid these days. Perhaps your colleague’s child would make a fine explorer or hunter if given the option.