The 3:30 Ramp Capital fund was created during the recovery of The Great Recession. As it has been recognized by financial institutions around the world, 3:30 Ramp Capital has been known to add a mysterious liquidity to the last 30 minutes of trading in the U.S. stock market. 3:30 Ramp Capital is disguised under the cover of High Frequency Traders and policies enacted by the Federal Reserve and Central Bankers around the world. 3:30 Ramp Capital AKA Ramp Capital, LLC AKA The Onion of Finance will always be bullish on stocks NO MATTER WHAT.
How many times are we going to hear about global risks? As I pointed out earlier, there will ALWAYS be global risks. Yet, we will continue to beat the same drum that global risks will somehow take down our economy if we ever hike rates again. We Ramped initially on the news but have now closed that entire Ramp. Remember: The first move is always wrong. So I expect some selling pressure this afternoon and tomorrow. Nothing that I can’t handle though.
We are up over 100 handles in less than a week. While I fully support that move, we need to come off a little bit so everyone can reload and the short squeeze can continue higher. Don’t be surprised if we make an attempt at 2000 before the end of February.
Below is a word cloud of January’s minutes. Foreign, bank, time, and swap stick out the most to me. Inflation is always in there. Just ignore that shit.
Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:05pm ESTComments Off on Do You Even Ramp, Bro?
Right after 2:30 today we were sitting at LOD, contemplating suicide. The magical 1812 line in the sand that everyone and their grandmother was watching finally broke. Sure enough, after a massive tweetstorm freakout of breaking 1812 we Ramped higher, ripping faces and sexual reproductive organs off in the process. We Ramped 26 handles in a matter of 15 minutes off the Wall Street Journal reporting that OPEC members might be ready to cooperate on a cut, citing comments UAE Energy Minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazrouei gave to Sky News Arabia.
Thankfully this happened before my daily Ramp as it gave traders a chance to digest the truthfulness behind this rumor. Then, true to style, I Ramped us another 9-10 handles from 3:30-3:45. And guess what, we are still ending down 1% on the day.
This is a classic bear market as I’ve said it before. We gap down in the morning, Ramp in the afternoon, then close with half of our opening losses. The only people making money in this market are short sellers and people buying the daily Ramp. You will continue to get killed if you buy and hold.
I really don’t like all this talk about a “Tax On Wall Street Speculation”. Please, enlighten me on how this tax is going to help you pay for a free art history degree. This famous phrase was repeated again by the senile socialist crank named Bernard “Bernie” Sanders during his victory speech in the New Hampshire Primary last night.
My question is: Why should I be punished because I only want to hold my stocks for 15 minutes a day because math tells me to do so?
An argument can be made that buying any stock is speculation. Just because you try to add a tax on something doesn’t mean it will fix things. People will adapt, find a loophole in the system, and mess up things worse than they originally were. If you see a train coming towards you and you are standing on the track do you not get out of the way? If you have the foresight to get out of the way of a bear market you shouldn’t be taxed even more by selling.
From Grandpa Bernard’s website concerning a “Tax on Wall Street Speculation”:
Stock markets are intended to be an exchange where a company can sell ownership in return for working capital. In other words, it’s meant for companies to sell shares for cash that they then invest back in the business. But increasingly, the markets are used as an instrument to gain short-term profits by quickly trading stocks with tiny price differences and using other high-risk trading methods to make a quick return.
An FTT, also known as a Tobin Tax or Robin Hood Tax, is a small tax applied each time a financial security (e.g., a stock, bond, or similar financial instrument) is traded.
The 2008 financial crisis has been both a lesson in the dangers of excessively risky financial behavior and a tremendous expense for the American taxpayers. Many studies show (as cited in this report) that implementing an FTT would both dissuade high-risk and high-frequency trading and generate revenue — to rebuild our infrastructure, improve our social safety net, and make higher education more affordable. Here is an illustration of how FFTs could be applied on a global scale:
Taxing a financial transfer does disincentivize selling a stock or bond. However, the small percentage of the tax means that only trading on the smallest of margins is no longer profitable. This tax would target the high-frequency trading that uses these tiny margins for profit without having meaningfully invested in a company.
Simply, a well-crafted FTT would only affect sophisticated stock brokers trying to make a quick buck. If done correctly, it would not discourage meaningful investments. See here and here for in-depth discussions on different ways of implementing an FTT.
News flash: Stocks are worthless pieces of paper unless you are a majority shareholder. You are speculating by buying stocks.
How can 1/3 of the pollsters be voting for Fed Funds to be greater than 1%? Are you god damned psychopaths? Do you never want to retire? Have you not witnessed the absolute carnage that hath engulfed our markets since the initial Fed hike back in December? At least half of you got it right by voting for negative interest rates which would force people into riskier investments (stocks) and we would hit new highs every day until retirement.
The system is flawed. We have a group of 12 “economists” who get to say when we should bail someone out and when we should change interest rates. I vote for power to the people. Let the people decide on interest rates. God knows everyone on Finance Twitter is already an economist anyways.
We are getting smoked again today. This morning’s job’s number was trash unless you look solely at wage growth. And I sure as hell didn’t get a raise even though I know I am well deserving of one.
There is still no way we are going to hike again in March unless the Fed seriously wants the S&P to go to 1500. One data point is not enough to hike. If anything we should know that is the case from the Fed kicking the can the last 2 years before their first hike. I think we will hit negative rates before we even think about hitting 1% fed funds.
Check out the Google Trends searches for unemployment and negative interest rates.
Are we really going to raise rates into the looming recession and 6 month high layoffs? I think not.
Janet hath saved us from the biblical flooding by not hiking rates and striking a dovish tone for Fed policy in 2016.
The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
Risk on while we muddle through this earnings season, giving excuses about softness in China and currencies, all whilst awaiting further dovishness from the next Fed meeting in March. It’s cute how earnings used to matter.
Below is the December dot plot. It will be interesting to see how the January dot plot overlays:
Taking the lower bounds of the 0.25% ranges for each year, the estimates for Fed Funds rates are as follows from the December meeting:
2016 = 1.16%
2017 = 2.29%
2018 = 3.07%
Longer Run = 3.41%
We are up 100 handles since a week ago. Everyone who is looking to short here will be forced to cover as we take a shot at getting back to even on the year. Don’t think we can’t go up another quick 100 just to catch everyone off guard.
P.S. The first move on FOMC Minutes days are always wrong. Appears we are tanking on the dovish news. Looking forward to the massive rally to close at the highs.
First off, let it be known that I called and #Rampstamped the millennial-generational-bottom in stocks for 2016 (last Wednesday).
I wasn’t the least bit shocked from the latest rally. A psychological tell that will always mark a bottom is when people tell you to be careful.
You’re going to buy $SPY OTM calls? Be careful!
You’re going to buy oil stocks? Be careful!
You’re going to buy a Powerball ticket? Be careful!
You’re going to buy the market at ATHs? Be careful!
Who are you, my mother? Don’t tell me when to be careful. The market is made for risk taking. And the moment you should be taking on the most risk is when people tell you to be careful. They are telling you to be careful because they are scared. They are worried that the world is coming to an end and they don’t have the balls to buy so they treat everyone like their children.
2016 has been a groundhog day of sorts. Every day we seem to be stuck in the same circle jerk, ultimately leading us lower to a timely and sudden death. If you are unsure of what I speak about, let’s take a peek inside your mind:
If we gap up it goes like this:
9:30 am: “Sweet, looks like we will be making some money today. The open looks strong.”
10:30 am: “Damn, we faded a little bit, probably a good time to add a little on the dip.”
11:30 am: “Why the fuck did I buy the dip?”
12:30 pm: “My wife is going to divorce me for losing our nest egg.”
1:30 pm: “Should I jump out the window or live another day?”
2:30 pm: “Ok, maybe I overreacted a little bit. It looks like we are finally basing.”
3:30 pm: “OMG, there is a God. Thank you Ramp. Thank you.”
4:00 pm: “Well the market went from up 1% at the open to down 2% by lunch to down 1% by the close. Feels almost like an up day yet all of my stocks are still down 5-10%!”
If we gap down it goes like this:
9:30 am: “God damnit, China.”
10:30 am: “God damnit, oil.”
11:30 am: “God damnit, biotechs.”
12:30 pm: “God damnit, Janet Yellen.”
1:30 pm: “God damnit, Gartman. God damnit, CNBC.”
2:30 pm: “God damnit, oil.”
3:30 pm: “OMG, there is a God. Thank you Ramp. Thank you.”
4:00 pm: “Well the market went from down 3% at the open to down 2% at the close. Feels almost like an up day yet all of my stocks are still down 5-10%!”
Even in a bear market there will be rallies. But, all of those rallies are relative to the larger decline. They make you feel like you win even though you are losing. They mess with your psyche. By the time you finally take a step back and look at the damage that was caused, you are down big and have to dig yourself out of a massive hole. Don’t dig your own grave.