The 3:30 Ramp Capital fund was created during the recovery of The Great Recession. As it has been recognized by financial institutions around the world, 3:30 Ramp Capital has been known to add a mysterious liquidity to the last 30 minutes of trading in the U.S. stock market. 3:30 Ramp Capital is disguised under the cover of High Frequency Traders and policies enacted by the Federal Reserve and Central Bankers around the world. 3:30 Ramp Capital AKA Ramp Capital, LLC AKA The Onion of Finance will always be bullish on stocks NO MATTER WHAT.
I’m taking vacation until Monday. I will be monitoring the Ramp remotely. I am entrusting you, the people, to fill in during my absence and close out April strong. I will be traveling to California (“Carly Fiorina” extra Schwarzenegger) to enjoy some vintage wines and expand my palate.
Don’t do anything stupid while I’m gone.
Examples of stupidity include: Buying $TWTR stock, buying $TWTR calls, selling $TWTR puts, using Periscope, saying Periscope is a game changer, shorting anything other than VIX, selling in May and going away.
Three big names are being crushed today coming off terrible earnings reports: $AAPL $TWTR and $CMG. I’ve decided to make Crying Jordan memes for any stock that misses in the future. Here are a few examples of my handy work.
I’ve been long all of these names at one point recently. A couple months ago I dipped in Chipotle around $400 and flipped it for $50 in less than a week. Haven’t looked at it since. I sold all of my $AAPL over 18 months ago at $118. Haven’t looked at it since. For some insane reason I continue to hold $TWTR. I may need to go to the doctor to check for brain tumors.
I think the reason that everyone on Finance Twitter hates Twitter stock is because they all own it but won’t admit it; and because it is the biggest piece of shit in the market right now. It’s down nearly 40% YTD and over $50 from its all time bubble high. I could have sold it multiple times for decent profits but held instead for paper losses. I don’t mind owning it until it goes to zero. It has really just become comical at this point. Luckily, I only have enough skin in the game equivalent to a fill-up of the gas tank on the yacht. Wait, why am I even telling you this? I don’t lose.
Everyone on Finance Twitter owns shares of $TWTR. The first step is admitting it.
As much as I hate to say it, Twitter will never be as good of a stock as Facebook. It’s a shame because I despise using Facebook now but have grown to love Twitter more and more each day. Even Snapchat is better than Facebook, yet Facebook actually knows how to monetize their platform and isn’t run by a bunch of overpaid hipsters. The time to sell Twitter stock is when you hate using it. By that time, Twitter management will have ruined their core platform and alienated their user base in the sake of profits and appeasing shareholders. That’s pretty much what has already happened to Facebook as the younger generations flock to other social media sites that don’t include people bitching about their lives and posting baby pictures.
I will continue to hold Twitter stock as long as I continue to use the product.
Currently Twitter is down 15%, Apple down 8%, and Chipotle down 5%.
But enough talk about shitty earnings. Focus on today’s FOMC minutes. It’s the only thing that really matters.
The market hasn’t been this compressed since the August meltdown last year. We’ve been trading in a tight range for the past 3 weeks, circlejerking bulls and bears alike. Every time we get a whiff of a sustainable decline (bear trap), a Fed head comes out and starts spoutin’ off saying they have the tools to accommodate any global slowdown. Every time we get a whiff of a sustainable Ramp (bull trap), some pajama boy comes out and rallies hard with the short camp. We’ve been in an uptrend the past 2 months and now we are finally starting to see a leveling off. We could be resting for the next move higher (pain trade/most likely) or we could be in a sea change where the lines for the Ark will stretch across the globe. In that case, you should ask Fly if there are any remaining tickets being issued.
Earnings season is upon us and it doesn’t look good. But, the great thing about earnings is that they don’t matter. Look at Alcoa for instance: their first-quarter earnings fell 92%, hurt by weak aluminum prices, and said they could cut as many as 2,000 jobs. So what is Wall Street’s response? Alcoa isn’t a bellwether anymore. Although I agree with them, you can bet your ass they wouldn’t be saying that if Alcoa didn’t suck so much.
Regardless, the market is waiting for a catalyst and the only one I see is earnings. Do we ignore the fact that revenues are earnings will be down year over year as long as they beat consensus and the whisper number? Current estimates from analysts have earnings declining over 8% from last year. But, as long as we can just ignore energy, materials, and banks, it should just be transitory. We only have 2 and a half more weeks until the ‘Sell in May’ folks come out from the shadows.
Side muse: Does anyone still follow the Presidential election? The appeal seems to be waning. I think everyone is just so damn demoralized with the lack of options that we’ve all just given up. I’m still writing my name on the ticket come November. I would appreciate it if you would do the same.
PPS: Shout out to @forensicinvstor for the lovely featured image.
Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:46pm ESTComments Off on The Password Is: Inflation1368
Below is the top 10 word count from Janet’s speech today at the Economic Club of New York. Can you say inflation? Really, what I think she means is deflation, but you will not find that word once in her speech, so let’s just ignore it for now.
My favorite line from the speech:
“…I continue to expect that overall PCE inflation for 2016 as a whole will come in well below 2 percent but will then move back to 2 percent over the course of 2017 and 2018, assuming no further swings in energy prices or the dollar.”
That day we dropped nearly 50 handles from the open and hit a low of 1828. Sure enough, the day after Lent, February 11th, marked another millennial generational bottom and we’ve since risen nearly 250 handles in 6 weeks.
The markets are closed tomorrow in honor of Good Friday. For all you non-Christians out there, Good Friday is the Friday before Easter Sunday, on which the Crucifixion of Jesus Christ is commemorated in the Christian Church. It is traditionally a day of fasting and penance.
Your penance is to say your prayers that Janet doesn’t raise rates again in April.
We need an Easter miracle to save us from halting our 6 straight weeks of gains. Hopefully the VIX doesn’t rise up from the dead on the 3rd day in fulfillment of the scriptures. Otherwise it may just be a sell Easter event.
My last trip through Europe I flew in and out of Brussels and stayed there for a couple of days. It’s a beautiful city with amazing chocolate and waffles. It’s a bit scary to see the attacks there this morning.
Before you go polluting social media with your thoughts and prayers please watch the video below. Today is a tragedy, don’t turn it on yourself.
I am happy to admit after the opening weekend of March Madness I am sitting in first place in my pool, up a cool 80 points to the nearest competitor, currently residing in the 99.9 percentile nationwide. Would you expect anything less from an AI bot? This is not a new feeling for me. One of dominance, supremacy, and complete control.
It’s too bad I don’t work for Berkshire Hathaway otherwise Warren would surely owe me $100k. His new offer this year was the employee with the most correct picks through this year’s Sweet 16 will win $100,000, and any employee who guesses every pick in the first two rounds correctly will win $1 million a year for life. Luckily for Warren, there were no perfect brackets left heading into the Sweet 16. Buffett wins again. Recall two years ago he did a publicity stunt where he offered $1B to anyone who could turn in a perfect bracket. The odds of turning in a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Obviously, no one won, and no one ever will.
Whilst watching the games and sucking down whiskied drinks in honor of St. Patrick, I drew a conclusion that there are many similarities between the March Madness tournament and the stocked market. They are both fun, unpredictable, crazy, emotional, and possibly rigged. I threw that last one in there for fun. I’m sure there is some point shaving going on somewhere.
With a little over a week left in March we are up a cool 120 handles, up double that (240) from the mid-February lows. With the S&P 500 and Dow up on the year, all time highs are in reachable distance. If we continue to melt up to a tune of 1-5 handles per day we will be there in no time. Don’t be surprised if this happens. The shorts will continue to clamor that we’ve come too far too fast. And just because “nothing has changed” in the past month doesn’t mean that we went down for a justified reason in January and February. The only reason we went down in January and early February was so that we could buy the dip and get even larger returns in 2016.
The video below reminds me of the market in the past month. Texas A&M was down 12 points with less than 45 seconds left. An impossible feat to overcome. Sure enough, they started chipping away (like the bulls) and UNI got complacent and lazy (like the bears). What we were left with was the largest last-minute comeback ever. It really is a site to behold.
It’s midday and stocks are slowly melting up as we thought they would, on their way to a date with the magical round 2000. The put/call ratio is currently at 130% which means everyone is too beared up and they will eventually have to cover their shorts. Clearly, the hardest trade right now is to BTFD. If you struggle with this concept, may I suggest holding your nose and closing your eyes.
It’s also the last day of the month and I’m looking forward to another successful Ramp (I’ll post the February returns later this week). If for whatever reason something goes wrong I will just blame it on racism. That seemed to work for Chris Rock last night at the Oscars. Talk about awkward. Since when did award shows become the main platform to push every social issue known to man? I just want to see who wins the damn awards, not get shamed into being a racist who hits women and hates the gay community…but I digress.
It’s about 2 hours until showtime. You all should be blessed that the stock gods have given us an extra day of Ramping. Hope to see you all there.
How many times are we going to hear about global risks? As I pointed out earlier, there will ALWAYS be global risks. Yet, we will continue to beat the same drum that global risks will somehow take down our economy if we ever hike rates again. We Ramped initially on the news but have now closed that entire Ramp. Remember: The first move is always wrong. So I expect some selling pressure this afternoon and tomorrow. Nothing that I can’t handle though.
We are up over 100 handles in less than a week. While I fully support that move, we need to come off a little bit so everyone can reload and the short squeeze can continue higher. Don’t be surprised if we make an attempt at 2000 before the end of February.
Below is a word cloud of January’s minutes. Foreign, bank, time, and swap stick out the most to me. Inflation is always in there. Just ignore that shit.