iBankCoin
The 3:30 Ramp Capital fund was created during the recovery of The Great Recession. As it has been recognized by financial institutions around the world, 3:30 Ramp Capital has been known to add a mysterious liquidity to the last 30 minutes of trading in the U.S. stock market. 3:30 Ramp Capital is disguised under the cover of High Frequency Traders and policies enacted by the Federal Reserve and Central Bankers around the world. 3:30 Ramp Capital AKA Ramp Capital, LLC AKA The Onion of Finance will always be bullish on stocks NO MATTER WHAT. #RampStamp
Joined Nov 23, 2015
68 Blog Posts

The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself And The 330 Ramp

Back in early February when Godzilla was roaming the streets of NYC, spitting napalm out of his gullet, I tweeted out that I missed greed.  At that time, the CNN Fear & Greed indicator was flashing extreme fear and hovering in the single digits.  Flash forward 5 months later, the streets have been cleaned up, the skyscrapers rebuilt and renovated, hipsters back on the streets searching for Pokemon; and the indicator is now sitting at extreme greed levels in the 90s.  Gartman has been known to trade off of this indicator, hence why I like to keep an eye on it.  With the indicator being in the 90s, it appears we may soon be headed for helicopter money territory.

Source: Josh Fields @partiallypro
Source: Josh Fields @partiallypro

With the VIX approaching 52 week lows and the biggest 3 week crush in history it only seems prudent to take profits here.  At least that is what I’m sure your gut is telling you right now.

However, as we all know, the market can stay irrational for long periods of time.  I think we have entered the melt-up phase once again.  Earnings season will once again be filled with bullish musings which will then result in multiple expansions as a result of a stock beating some analyst’s estimates and whisper number while completely ignoring all fundamentals.  So basically nothing out of the ordinary.

As always, you can safely hide in the Ramp as it is not affected by earnings, or Brexit, or greed.  Well, technically, I guess it is affected by greed.  Nevertheless, I expect some of you to take your profits, and put on your hedges.  Just be prepared to lose money on those hedges.

 

 

 

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June FOMC Meeting Minutes Word Cloud

Top 10 repeated words from the June FOMC minutes:

Market – 80

Inflation – 76

Rate – 71

Economic – 65

Participant – 53

Labor – 50

Decline – 50

Price – 50

Committee – 49

Expect – 48

Brexit was only briefly touched upon a handful of times to cover their ass in case there was fallout before the vote (there was).  I expect next meeting minutes to reveal more mentions of Brexit and how it will affect our inflation and labor participation rates.

There were only 3 mentions of “hike”. Remember when we hiked back in December of last year and every US bond yield has gotten murdered since?  The 30 year yield is now below the S&P 500 yield for the first time since the financial crisis.  If you haven’t noticed, the market will do whatever it wants to do.  It doesn’t take orders from the Fed anymore.

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And just for fun I thought it would be worthwhile to include the latest and greatest dot plot.  There appears to be a lone ranger lingering around the 0.5% fed funds target.  Not sure if he/she will be the first person to get a raise or get fired.  I can’t wait to look back at this 2 years from now and see we are still at or below 0.5%.

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Market HODing and off the lows after the minutes were released.  It also appears the Brexit worries have waned and the 1-day bear market has come to an end.  You are now free to put your kids back in school and come out from the bomb shelter/your parent’s basement.  Let’s see if we can’t take out new highs this week.  We deserve them.

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Buy The Brexit Dip

In case you’ve been living in a hole, last night was an historic event.  It was pretty impressive to watch the calamity ensue after the UK voted to leave the EU.  Spooz went limit down last night hitting the magic 1999 level as pajama traders snorted entirely too much cocaine.  Update on the market 30 minutes after the open and we are sitting at 2070, flat on the week.

The Fly has already embarked on his journey, the Ark has set sail, we bid him farewell.  I warned him that seas may be choppy and to return to port before 3:30pm.  The Ark is fundamentally flawed, built by cheap labor, filled with stupid animals.  It’s never too late to join the Ramp Camp.  We have the Fed and The PPT on our side.  Plus we all saw what happened at the close yesterday.  Do you really want to bet against that?

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Moreover, the Fed funds are now predicting a 12% rate cut in September.  Bad news = QE4 = Spooz 2100.

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As I mentioned yesterday, I will be out golfing today, working on my 330 yard drive.  I will be available remotely in case of emergency.  Don’t do anything stupid today.

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Fed BINGO

Don’t forget to fill out your Fed BINGO playing card.  You can rearrange the the squares as you see fit before the press conference begins at 2:30pm ET.  Good luck to all.

Side note: The adult version of this game is take a shot every time you hear a buzzword.

BINGO

 

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Calling The Bluff

FOMC meetings start today.  Investors are calling the Fed’s bluff once again, the bluff being that they will actually raise rates.  The whammy came a couple weeks ago with the terrible NFP report.  I love how we can take a single data point and extrapolate it to determine Fed policy.  Right now the CME Group FedWatch is predicting a 2% chance of a rate hike, down from 30% a month ago.  You have to go all the way out to the December meeting to even get a probability of a hike greater than 50%.

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The Fed was supposed to hike twice in 2016.  That doesn’t look like it will become reality unless the pull off a July/December combo.  A New York Times piece written a month ago on May 18th had the following to say:

The Federal Reserve sent a sharp, simple message to financial markets on Wednesday: Pay attention. The Fed is thinking seriously about raising its benchmark interest rate at its next meeting, in June.

The unusually frank bulletin was delivered in the official account of the Fed’s April meeting, which said explicitly that most officials thought “it likely would be appropriate” to raise rates in June if the economy shows clear signs of a rebound from a weak winter.

Still the account made clear that Fed officials want markets to take the possibility more seriously.

The Fed wants us to take them more seriously.  Okie dokie.

My prediction is thus: We will continue to muddle up and down, trading sideways mostly.  As long as Spooz stay under 2100 Janet will never pull the trigger.  Last week we were above 2100 the entire time, then reality struck that there was a Fed meeting this week and we started to selloff again.  Once the Fed meeting is over and they announce no hike, we will rip higher again, as always.  Then we will repeat this process in July, September, November and probably December as well.  The Fed is data dependent AKA S&P500 price dependent.

On a side note: The Fly has taken a personal vendetta against yours truly.  He has waged war against the Ramp because he wants the Ark to set sea yet my consistent Ramp attempts keep puncturing the sides of the Ark, causing delays and disembarkation.  It is time to choose sides.  You can either take a seat on the Ark, if there is room available next to Rikki Tikki Tavi, or you can grab a weapon and begin dismantling the Ark.  Choose your side, wisely.

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The Bulls Have Alligator Blood

The bulls have alligator blood, the bears just can’t get rid of them.  They showed up all the ‘Sell in May’ naysayers by making a late push to close up in May.  Even the first two days of June have seen 0.5% opening declines being swallowed up before lunch.  New highs are so close you can taste them.  The only problem is that the higher we go, the higher the percentage chance of a rate hike since Janet is S&P 500 data-dependent.

Tomorrow’s NFP will be unimportant as always.  Good or bad, ignore it.

There is a clear supply of sell orders above 2100 trying to prevent the bulls from another win.  I’m not concerned though as we haven’t even hit the animal spirits phase of the latest rally.

Speaking of alligators, I’m never playing golf in Florida again.

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Our Society Is Doomed: The Flip Heard Around The World

The god-damned millennials are back at it again, but this time it’s not with white Vans.  Watch this short clip:

Millennials are nuts. What is even more crazy is the fact that someone is trying to sell this signed bottle on eBay.  Current bid is $6k.  No bubble here.  Why not just put $6k in $MILN ETF?

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Not sure which is more insane: millennials going apeshit over a bottle flip or grown ups being punked by a set of glasses sitting on the floor of an art gallery.

Our society is doomed.

I can only hope we get this excited when we break through 2100 today.

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Stock Tips Are For Waiters

I went out the other night to pick up some carry-out food (paleo of course) from a restaurant.  When they handed me the bill I noticed a “gratuities are not included” statement on the bottom of the check.  I don’t get carry-out very often and normally I don’t even think twice about tipping as I am the one who has to get out of the car and up the wheelchair ramp.  Regardless, I ran a poll to see if others think it is customary to tip for carry-out service.  Here are the results:

Typically, I tip 20% on a normal dinner service, maybe 25% if the waitress is cute.  But I was dealing with the cook in the back so I wasn’t sure what was appropriate for this grease monkey.  5-10%?  I’ve never worked in the restaurant business but I’ve always figured that the waiters kept all the tips and didn’t split them with the cooks since they are typically the better looking ones.

Since the overwhelming majority of you do not feel the obligation to tip on carry-out service, feel free to steal my latest and greatest idea:  Instead of giving a monetary tip when you receive the bill, write down your most speculative stock tip.  Don’t forget to put the cashtag in front.

Trust me, they will thank you later when your stock tip turns out to be the next $VRX, $GPRO, $SUNE, etc., as long as they sell before the bubble pops.  But hey, that’s on them at this point.  You just need to plant the seed and it’s up to them on when to harvest.

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April FOMC Minutes Word Cloud

Top 10 words:

54    rate
54    inflation
46    economic
45    prices
45    market
39    growth
37    continued
36    funds
35    quarter
35    conditions

I subtracted out ‘Committee’ and ‘participants’ from the top 10 as I didn’t see how they mattered.  Everyone thinks the minutes were hawkish but that was just so we could get another buying opportunity.  Stay thirsty my friends.

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Dude, Where’s My Ramp?

I didn’t want to post my March numbers because I was embarrassed.  But, being the stand up citizen that I am, and to show I play with an open hand, I decided to show them anyways.

March Totals

As you can see my numbers suck.  I don’t have a problem with getting it up, just a problem with keeping it up. I may need to have a chat with my doctor about that.

Now contrast that with the April numbers:

AprilTotals

The Ramp works best when the market is volatile and swinging both ways (no homo).  In the end I can’t be mad at the March numbers since the market ripped anyways.  It also looks like I might need to start working overtime as there are gains to be had.

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