I put out a poll on Monday afternoon that I thought would cover most outcomes of the election. If $TWTR would allow more than 4 poll options I would have added a 5th that said ‘Trump/Clinton win, market flat’ even though I really don’t think this a viable outcome. The poll is still open until about 9pm tonight so please cast your vote and timestamp it to see how you did on Wednesday.
Poll: What happens Wednesday?
— ♿️ Ramp Capital™♿️ (@RampCapitalLLC) November 7, 2016
As the poll currently stands, with over 2000 votes, 12% believe that Trump will win and the market will rally and 14% believe that Clinton will win and the market will tank. The point of this poll was not to figure out if Trump or Clinton would win, but rather how the market would react to said candidate’s win.
The media has ingrained the following thoughts in our heads: Trump win = bad and Clinton win = good.
What I’ve learned about the market over years of trading is that the market will do what most people don’t see coming. The Brexit vote was one of the most recent examples of this phenomena. I’ve witnessed a handful of Trump supporters compare this election to the Brexit vote saying a similar outcome is on hand. They think too many Trump supporters are afraid to voice their opinions on social media and in polls because of Trump’s demeanor. So they believe come today, on election day, there will be an outpouring of Trump support as they fill up the polls throughout the country in support of their orange hero. While I could see this scenario playing out in the some midwest states it will be the battleground states that matter, as in every election, since we are an electoral voting democracy.
What I think will happen is the following, and I’m basing it off of this poll and my gut, not my heart: Clinton will win and the market will go down. If Clinton does win, we could see an immediate gap up, as all the corrupt Democrats and Wall Street cheer what they have known would happen for months based off of the consistently “rigged” polls. Once all of the champagne and drugs wear off, traders will start to realize that the Clinton rally already happened on Monday when we went up 2% because she was cleared by the FBI (again). We will continue to fade the entire day and potentially give up a >1% overnight gain on a sell the news event. Another reason we could sell off on a Clinton win may be if Trump and his voters refuse to accept the outcome of the election and cast a gloomy shadow over it. There will also be the constant shadow of the Podesta emails and whatever else Wikileaks digs up.
There is still an off chance we go up on a Clinton win for a day, week, or maybe even a month as predicted by the majority. But, I just don’t see it. Of course I won’t be upset if this happens but I just don’t believe it will play out this way. It seems way too scripted. I asked a handful of close friends and relatives what they thought would happen with a Clinton win and they all said the same thing. Thank the media for that.
Just because I think Clinton will win and we will sell off doesn’t mean I would recommend aligning your portfolio short in anticipation of this outcome. Literally anything could happen so it’s best to just stay put until we figure out who wins. You should have a large enough cash position that you would be fine with any outcome. Maybe you don’t make enough on the rip up, so be it. There will be all kinds of buying and selling opportunities on Wednesday and for the remainder of the year as traders finally start to digest what the next President will mean for their portfolio. It is more important how we react after the news hits than how we react before. Placing bets on a certain outcome is what it is, glorified gambling. Even this morning I saw an 80% chance that Clinton wins. An 80% chance of something happening in the market with a high number of samples is very good odds. But we are talking about the election outcome, not how the market will react.
If Clinton wins, expect everyone to say I told you so. If Trump wins, liberal media (CNN, MSNBC, CNBC et. al.) will go absolutely ape shit. Either way, it is going to be great television. Reality TV at its finest.
God Bless America.
Full Disclosure: I voted for Trump this morning because I thought it was too narcissistic to vote for myself, so I voted for the next best thing. The main reason I voted for Trump is because I’m sick of Washington and the games they play. Congress approval rating is 20% right now, up from the all time low of 9% in 2013. In 2001, a month after 9/11, their approval rating was 84%. I think Trump is their kryptonite and their chemotherapy and will turn Washington upside down. With Clinton, I just saw more of the same corruptness. Regardless of the outcome, life will go on and we can go back to not hating each other again on social media.