iBankCoin
The 3:30 Ramp Capital fund was created during the recovery of The Great Recession. As it has been recognized by financial institutions around the world, 3:30 Ramp Capital has been known to add a mysterious liquidity to the last 30 minutes of trading in the U.S. stock market. 3:30 Ramp Capital is disguised under the cover of High Frequency Traders and policies enacted by the Federal Reserve and Central Bankers around the world. 3:30 Ramp Capital AKA Ramp Capital, LLC AKA The Onion of Finance will always be bullish on stocks NO MATTER WHAT. #RampStamp
Joined Nov 23, 2015
68 Blog Posts

This Is The Top: Soulja Boy Tell’em

Last Friday, November 4th, right after the market closed down for the 9th straight day in a row, we received a major sign.  Not a sign of a potential bottom, but the sign of a potential major top.  It came in the form of a tweet from a 26-year-old-one-hit-wonder-mega-hip-hop-celebrity-has-been by the name of Soulja Boy.

For the geriatrics out there who don’t know who Soulja Boy is, here is a video of his first and only hit, Crank That (Soulja Boy).  If you have been to a wedding in the past 10 years you have most likely heard and/or tried to dance to this song.

I am always intrigued when celebrities try to dabble in the stock market.  See: Oprah, Martha Stewart, Jose Canseco, et. al.  But, when I saw this tweet come out, it drew a major red flag.  The way he said “I’m studying it right now and need some tips” just screams future bagholder.  I will give him credit for trying but he could be going the way of becoming the next Gartman.  I guess he has never heard the saying that tips are for waiters, especially tips from $TWTR paper traders.

I did some brief research over the weekend on Soulja Boy and some of his previous endeavors to see if I could gauge his market interest.  According to TheRichest, he has a net worth of approximately 23 million dollars.  It also appears that back in May he got a 5-year $400 million endorsement deal with World Poker Fund Holdings (OTC PINK: WPFH), a leading developer and operator of online and event-based social gaming platforms and brands.

From a press release from World Poker Fund:

Soulja Boy, “I invest in things I understand. I enjoy music, and of course gaming. Being an influencer is a form of currency. Having portfolio diversification is critical if you want to be an effective brand ambassador. With regards to World Poker Fund, I believe in its strategy, its team, the vision, and management’s ability to target its financial goals.”

If you are really interested in reading how a reported $23M man somehow stumbled upon a $400M deal from a pink sheet OTC stock read: The Real Story Behind Soulja Boy’s ‘$400 Million’ Deal, Forbes

All of this promise is not yet reflected in how much investors say the company is worth. According to CNN Money, World Poker Fund Holdings has a market capitalization of around $52 million. WPFH’s own annual report lists losses of over $400,000 last year.

So how is a company that is worth just north of $50 million going to pay out $400 million to their celebrity endorser? The answer is, they’re not. The deal, according to Bird, includes both stock and revenue-sharing.

“He really kind of jumped the gun” by using the $400 million figure. The deal is capped at $400 million, and it’s based on a forward-thinking valuation of the company. He’s young, he’s 25 years old. He got really excited, and he tweeted something he probably shouldn’t have tweeted. He was getting a lot of pressure from within the entertainment community, so he wanted to put a statement out. Obviously, the company’s market cap is at $51.8 million. There’s no way they could cut a $400 million deal. Endorsement deals are calculated on a lot of different factors. This is not a fully cash transaction.”

More information on this deal was dug up here: Soulja Boy’s Deal Isn’t Really Worth $400 Million: “He Tweeted Something He Shouldn’t Have”

We all know how this deal will most likely end up for him.  I imagine it will be just like how 99% of the time OTM options end up for everyone else: worthless.  The stock currently shows 770,000 shares at a price of $0.55 which puts the market cap under $500k.  I guess Bieber dumped all of his shares already.

Just typing in a simple Google search of Soulja Boy + stock market gave me this gem below.  Watch this video and tell me if you think this guy will be a good investor or trader.  I would gladly take the other side of any of his trades after looking into his investing history.  Hopefully he publicizes them on his social media more.

And this is why, sadly, we may have topped.  I like when people try to invest and get coin, but I don’t like when people act like they are impenetrable to the forces of the market.  Hopefully he stays away from $SPY OTM calls.

 

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A WEEK UNTIL THE ELECTION – MARKETS IN TURMOIL

S&P 500 just breached the 2100 magical support level, lowest since July 7th.  How did we get here?

Everything has been rosy since Brexit.  We haven’t hiked rates yet in 2016 and Clinton has been leading in every poll conducted by MSM by 5-10 points, regardless of the liberal corruption and current Weinergate investigation.

The market is trying to protect itself by discounting a Trump win in light of all the hits the liberals have taken in the past few weeks.  If the polls are real (they aren’t), we shouldn’t have to worry about a Trump win.  I think you could expect some volatile trading this next week with the Fed meeting, NFP, and the election of course.  People will try to frontrun what they think will happen and this should create some good trading opportunities for everyone.

This scenario is very reminiscent of Brexit.  A week leading up to the vote, the market rallied 2% but then sold off 5+% in 2 days.  We could be seeing the reverse of this play out now, as the market is trading lower into the election waiting for a Hillary win to rip higher.  If Hillary wins and the market continues lower, all bets are off.

Part of the reason Wall Street is worried about a Trump win is that he claimed he would essentially abolish the Fed.  Ya right.  He loves money just as much as the rest of us. Abolishing the Fed and taking away our candy would be a poor choice as we have all come to rely on stocks being forever at ATHs.

I still don’t get the argument of Trump is bad and Hillary is good for Wall Street.  They could both be bad and they could both be good.  If Trump wins and we sell off, is it because we’ve had an 8 year bull market and are due for a correction or is it based on his future political agenda?  Just because Democrats have statistically performed better in the past does not mean it’s a future predictor.  Many of these could be outliers, just like the Hoover administration.  No administration is created equal and outside events affect the markets not the people running the country.  Obama inherited the Great Recession, if it would have been a Republican instead, don’t you think we would have done just as well or better?  It’s a question that no one can answer with any high level of certainty.  I think trading off of seasonality type trends like this is just outright foolish.

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Courtesy of Bespoke

I pray that we all get through these times of darkness and that we return to ATHs for the sake of our retirements, regardless of which corrupt leader we elect next week.

#VoteRamp

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The Most Important Lesson From The 2016 Election

The most important thing we can learn from the 2016 Election is that no information is safe, public or private.  Nothing you say to your friends 5, 10, 15 years ago in a college dorm room.  Nothing you tweeted and then deleted.  Nothing you put on Facebook.  Nothing you sent over email.  Nothing you say in the locker room to your bros.  Nothing you text your best friends on WhatsApp.  Nothing you send to your Snapchat friends.

“Ya, but they disappear?”

No, they don’t.

I’ll be the first to admit I’ve said some very ignorant things on social media and to my friends and I’m not proud of it.  It’s actually pretty unnerving to read some of the things you’ve publicly said in the past.  I liken it to clothes and fashion; look back at a picture of yourself from 10 years ago and you will probably say to yourself “What the hell was I wearing and why?”.  Same goes for the dumb things you’ve said publicly on the main social media platforms TWTR and FB.  Why did I say that?  And publicly nonetheless.  The Ramp Capital TWTR feed is the only exception, that sarcasm level is and always will be 100.

We are in a culture shift with the rise of social media and smartphones.  We are always connected.  We are always trying to stay in the loop.  We are always trying to impress someone.  Thirty years ago they didn’t have to worry about these kinds of issues.  The only way you could get busted with dirt was if someone wire-tapped you or you got caught on TV or a private investigator followed you around to your shady deals and snapped pictures from a van in an alley.  Otherwise it was just he-said-she-said and you could deny until you die.

This will sadden many, but there is no way I could ever run for President.  I don’t want this revelation to stop anyone who was planning on writing my name in on the ticket this year.  I just have too much dirt on me hidden in the deepest and darkest quagmires of the Internet archives.  Is it on the level of HRC and Trump bad?  Not even close, but, I’m a Christian, so I have some sense of a conscience.

In 20 years it will be interesting to see how social media plays a bigger role in every election as dirt will be dug up through different platforms.  Do we just accept it as a part of life as long as they apologize?  Or does the next President have to stay off all social media so they can be portrayed as a saint?  Right now, the HRC camp has clearly been busted by the Wikileaks and regardless what MSM says you know those emails are legit.  But, she apologized for some things, albeit indirectly, or blamed Russia for hacking and then shifting the focus to Trump colluding with them, so she is portrayed as the saint.  Whereas Trump got busted saying dumb things as he always does (and people act shockingly appalled) but he doesn’t apologize, or at least he doesn’t apologize in the way that the media wants him to so he becomes the whipping boy.

Clearly we all want some of our information to be private and remain private because it is intimate to us.

But, make no mistake, there is no such thing as privacy anymore.

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Channel Checking Chipotle’s Chiptopia Craze & Coupons

Say that 10 times as fast as you can.

I’ve been long $CMG common for a couple months now ($392 entry) as I believe it has bottomed and here’s why:

We will finally be getting info on how the Chiptopia promo helped or hurt Chipotle.  Here are the reward levels if you have been living in a cave and hate burritos and Chipotle.

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Now, my channel checks aren’t like real analyst’s channel checks (real analyst = oxymoron?).  I keep it local and I keep it intimate and I keep it qualitative.  This is how you can actually gain an advantage instead of falling into the herd mentality by watching CNBC all day.  I have a couple of friends who actually achieved Hot status in the Chiptopia promo.  They will of course be inviting me to their 20 person party.  I actually was only going for mild status but forgot to scan my card a couple times in the last month so I missed out on a free burrito.  How many people do you think tried to get the Chiptopia hot status but then missed by a visit or two?  I would imagine a lot.

Obviously, this Chiptopia promo was to lure customers back to the chain after the great E. coli scare of 2015 where a handful of people got sick.  Did anyone die?  I don’t know, maybe a couple.  People slowly die every day from eating the crap at McDonald’s so I’ll call it a wash.  I have never seen lines as long as I have at Chipotle since the Chiptopia promo started.  We actually started calling in our order at 9am so that we could go there and pick it up without having to wait 20-30 minutes in line.

The other channel check I did was somewhat intuitive, I thought at least, although not completely quantitative.  There is a coupon gift card website called Raise.com.  The site buys and sells hundreds of different gift cards.  So for instance, say you got a $100 gift card for Chipotle at Xmas and you know you will never use it, you can go on this site and sell it for a slight discount, say 2% or $98.  I’ve never sold one on there but the going rate discount is based off simple supply and demand.  If no one wants your shitty gift card to McDonald’s then you will have to sell it at a higher percentage off what you obtained it for.

Anyways, back 3 or 4 months ago when I was dipping into my $CMG position I went onto this site and noticed that there were tons of Chipotle gift cards going at 17% off.  That to me seemed like a huge discount, seeing as some gift cards get bought at only a 1% discount, but it was also right after the final E. Coli headline and right before Chiptopia started.  So I ended up picking up a couple of gift cards and used them throughout the Chiptopia promo.   I took a look back today at the Chipotle gift cards on Raise and there are only 25 available going for a 2% discount.  Which means 1 of 2 things to me: Demand is high and/or supply is low and the Chiptopia promo has actually worked and people have started coming back into the restaurants to enjoy their burritos.

A quick take at Chipotle’s chart shows it has been basing for the past 4 months.  It has traded in a range of 385 to 445 since June, most times going in straight lines up and straight lines down.  Taking a step back you can clearly see that the stock has started the bottoming process as it was previously shitcanned (pun intended) from $750 to $385 in less than a year.  It is also finally catching up to the 200DMA which would be a catalyst for some swing trader longs to hop in thinking the worst is over.  It came within a few dollars of tagging the 200DMA yesterday and it hasn’t been above it since October 20, 2015, almost a year ago.

Fundamentals aren’t great but aren’t terrible either, just depends on what you look at.  You can make a bear case by saying their same store sales are abysmal and food costs are rising and worker turnover and wages are high.  M Science (never heard of them) came out with a bearish note this morning shitting on them before earnings and they are down a swift 3.5%.  Nice timing asshats.

Margins always get hit with promos, but will the revenue gain from the Chiptopia promo help offset this and bring people back?  I feel somewhat comfortable holding shares (gambling) into earnings seeing as I already have a 8% gain.  From Nasdaq website:

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is expected to report earnings on 10/25/2016 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2016. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 17 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.69.

The short float is near 19%.  So any beat on earnings could cause a huge short covering rally.  Let’s see how this one plays out and what investors focus on when they report.  Forward guidance is always key, if Chipotle says customers are coming back, that could be the fuel needed to ignite the next phase of the rally back to 500 and beyond.

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Pence Destroys Kaine; CNN Goes Full Libtard

From CNN/ORC Instant Poll: Pence Narrowly Wins Debate

This poll is among debate watchers (and among debate watchers there were slightly more Democrats watching than Republicans).  CNN some how had Pence still beating Kaine 48 to 42%.

Here are the results from two other polls:

Did Kaine do better or worse than you expected?

Better: 38%, Worse: 43%, Same: 15%

Did Pence do better or worse than you expected?

Better: 67%, Worse: 14%, Same: 15%

Now from the all-important Ramp Capital poll, which means everything:

If Pence was a public trading stock and they reported earnings like this, the stock would go up 40% the next day.

Bonus material:

CNN went FULL LIBTARD tonight.  They got a room of 20 undecided voters (counted 28?) in Richmond, Virginia where Tim Kaine is Senator and asked who won tonight’s debate.  I’m done.  I literally, can’t, even.

It’s too bad we can’t have both of these guys run for President instead of the all-unimportant Vice President position.  Pence would still mop the floor with both Kaine and HRC.

Tune in on Sunday, we will be live-tweeting the Presidential Debate on IBC.

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The First Presidential Debate: Turd Sandwich Versus Giant Douche


The first presidential debate begins on Monday night. You will get to see the two most hated presidential candidates to ever run for office square off against each other. This will be entertainment at its finest. A giant douche versus a turd sandwich. The anticipation and lead up to this event has been almost unbearable.  Blood will be drawn, mud and feces will be thrown, and tears will be shed. Hatred will flow.

I ran and poll recently to see who you would rather vote for and here are the results:

Unfortunately, I am not sure if I will be able to live tweet or watch the debate because I will be on vacation with no cell phone service. But I’m sure I can find a Wi-Fi somewhere on the island and if so I will tune in. I will most likely be intoxicated on sugary rum drinks and rolling cigars with the locals while wrapped in mosquito nets trying to stay away from the Zika virus. I will be recording it on my DVR back home so that I can rewatch it whenever I feel sad or lonely. I suggest you do the same.

I think it is only fair that we create a drinking game for this momentous occasion, it’s the American way. Feel free to add buzzwords from giant douche’s vocabulary in the comment section below that we can drink to. I  haven’t been following turd sandwich enough to know her favorite buzzwords but here is a good list for giant douche:

Sad
Eminent
Tremendous
Businessman
Nasty
Beautiful
Catastrophe
Unbelievable
Incompetent
Hell
Make America Great Again

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You Are All Degenerate Gamblers

You are all degenerate gamblers.  “But Ramp, I don’t gamble, I invest.”  Ok, keep telling yourself that.  The market attracts degenerates like yourself.  Ask yourself a simple question: How long could you go without checking the market?

I ran an interesting poll on Twitter and here are the results:

I have to say, I am in the 1-hour camp whenever I have any access to cellular data or wifi.  If I don’t have access to cellular data, I find a way to get a hold of a paper or gain access to wifi.  It has almost become a problem.  Why do we feel the need to consistently keep an eye on the market?  Even if we consider ourselves active traders or active investors, we don’t always make the moves we said we would when we consistently keep an eye on the market because we second guess ourselves.

Take today for example.  As I type this, the market is down 1.85%.  We haven’t made a 1% move in 2 months.  In that 2 month span I bet you were saying you would be a buyer of any dip.  Well, guess what, the dip has arrived and you are probably not buying.  Instead of buying, you are watching what everyone else is doing on Twitter, watching your portfolio grind lower, and waiting for a teevee talking head to tell you what to do.  You are probably also tweeting arcane stock market quotes about trading price and levels and taking profits. Stop doing that, it’s dumb.

It is quite interesting to note how down days bring out the best in everyone on Financial Twitter.  I’m not sure why that is, but I thoroughly enjoy it.  People love to watch train wrecks from a safe distance because they are sick in the head.

We still have a couple hours before the Ramp.  Let’s see what I have in store for the kiddos.

PS: I don’t gamble. I win.

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What You Need To Know About JackHole

All you need to know about JackHole is that Janet will talk up her book the same way she has done since taking office.  She will try to figure out a way to tell investors that a rate hike is coming in December without scaring the shit out of them.  She wants us to stop being so complacent.  Investors will be hanging on every word.

What I don’t understand is how we continuously believe every word that spews from every central banker’s mouth.  When the market goes down we blame it on rate hike talks.  Yet we’ve hiked 1 time in the past 9 years and the dot plot looks like shit.

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As you can see from the chart below, the market hasn’t moved in a month, in fact it has moved less in the past month than any other period in the past 20 years.  Thankfully I’ve gotten in many rounds of golf without coming back to an Armageddon.  Last year was quite different. Only a few days before the Jackson Hole Summit of 2015, the market quickly took a +10% haircut in 3 days.

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If we are lucky, maybe we will see a guest appearance from the bearded clam.

Yellen’s speech begins at 10am ET on Friday.  Bring popcorn and EpiPens.  We deserve 2200.

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Game Of Ramps

The stock market can be easily relatable to things that on the surface may seem unrelatable.  Take Game of Thrones for instance; there are many similarities that may never have been realized before.  The story line follows a bunch of savages (homegamers) trying to capture the throne (get rich and retire early) yet no one has rightful claim to the throne (no one is smarter than the market).  The heathens band together into powerful armies (buy orders) and fight to the death with anyone who gets in their way (shortsellers) to capture the throne (retirement).  There is a giant wall that protects the entire realm (the Fed and PPT) from harm.  Everyone appears to be incestual with each other (insider trading) as well as whore their stuff around (sell newsletters).

As it currently stands, your grace, Lord Ramp sits on the iron wheelchair throne and I never intend to give it up.  My recent 8 day win streak and the breakdown of market volume proves that I am in full control and command of the seven kingdoms.  Moreover, new ATHs are now hit on a daily basis and $VIX is approaching single digits (I will soon hang its head on a spike outside of my office).

As the old stocked market adage goes: Amateurs open the market, but professionals close it.  Below you will find the breakdown of volume for NYSE stocks from Monday.  On a typical day the Ramp accounts for somewhere between 30-50% of the daily market volume, hence why it is referred to as the most bullish half hour of the day by the liberal media.  Lest we not forget all of the liquidity I am providing to the peasants.  You can now see how House Ramp has become rightful heir to the throne.

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Hat Tip: @StockCats

Winter is coming and I expect $SPX 2300 by Thanksgiving.  Anything less would be considered treason and a direct threat to the throne and House Ramp.

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Image courtesy of @vexmark

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Join The Rampublican Party

Like all of you, I’ve had enough of the two-party political system in America. Both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions have been outright ridiculous.  Both parties continue to shit on each other while homegamers are left to figure out who the least shitty candidate is.  Sure they make for great Twitter but they don’t make for a greater future.

That’s why I’ve decided to throw my hat into the ring and break up the two-party system and form the Rampublican party and run for President. Now, this isn’t your independent tea party bullshit or a fascist or demagogue state as all the hipsters like to call Trump. This is a party that caters to the homegamers, a centralist idea (think central banks) that spans a range that starts in the lower left and ends in the upper right.

If you are unsure of who to vote for come November, just remember who had your back during the worst start to the year ever for the market, during Brexit, during the 2015 December rate hike, at ATHs, and when $TWTR reported shitty numbers (#RIPTwitter).  I did.

My platform is for every homegamer to retire early, to run helicopter money drops twice a year at a minimum, and no rate hikes ever again.  The Rampublican party will lift people out of poverty on a strict time schedule starting every day at 3:30pm.  I will also look to abolish short selling and imprison any offenders.  I will make sure the $VIX stays in single digits for my entire tenure.

I want to see my name written on the ticket. I’ll send reminders when the time approaches but I fully expect to see some pictures of ballots with my name on it.  America, free market capitalism, and $SPY depend on it.

#VoteRamp

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