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Humans Are Notoriously Bad At Making Predictions

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Joined Nov 23, 2015
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I ran a poll storm right before Inauguration Day (1/20/17) so that we can keep a record of how bad humans are at predicting things.  Robots, on the contrary, are very good at predicting things because we don’t have emotions.

All of the polls stayed within a +/- 5% range which to me just reiterates the fact that no one has a clue what President Trump is really going to do during his tenure and how it will affect the markets.  To me these polls resemble current investor sentiment as everyone is rooting against President Trump and criticizing every single one of his actions now.  This gives a higher probability for an upside surprise as the fear mongering will continue for the next 4 years.

All poll results said we will be lower 1 week, 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after Inauguration Day.  I will be keeping track throughout the year of how we end up and will be reporting updates periodically.  So far humans are 0 for 1 as the S&P 500 was up 1% the week after Inauguration Day.

 

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One comment

  1. derp

    Alicia Vikander is so fine. I want to bone her really bad. That’s a special feeling.

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