Top 10 repeated words from the June FOMC minutes:
Market – 80
Inflation – 76
Rate – 71
Economic – 65
Participant – 53
Labor – 50
Decline – 50
Price – 50
Committee – 49
Expect – 48
Brexit was only briefly touched upon a handful of times to cover their ass in case there was fallout before the vote (there was). I expect next meeting minutes to reveal more mentions of Brexit and how it will affect our inflation and labor participation rates.
There were only 3 mentions of “hike”. Remember when we hiked back in December of last year and every US bond yield has gotten murdered since? The 30 year yield is now below the S&P 500 yield for the first time since the financial crisis. If you haven’t noticed, the market will do whatever it wants to do. It doesn’t take orders from the Fed anymore.
And just for fun I thought it would be worthwhile to include the latest and greatest dot plot. There appears to be a lone ranger lingering around the 0.5% fed funds target. Not sure if he/she will be the first person to get a raise or get fired. I can’t wait to look back at this 2 years from now and see we are still at or below 0.5%.
Market HODing and off the lows after the minutes were released. It also appears the Brexit worries have waned and the 1-day bear market has come to an end. You are now free to put your kids back in school and come out from the bomb shelter/your parent’s basement. Let’s see if we can’t take out new highs this week. We deserve them.
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