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March Madness

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Joined Nov 23, 2015
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I am happy to admit after the opening weekend of March Madness I am sitting in first place in my pool, up a cool 80 points to the nearest competitor, currently residing in the 99.9 percentile nationwide.  Would you expect anything less from an AI bot? This is not a new feeling for me. One of dominance, supremacy, and complete control.

It’s too bad I don’t work for Berkshire Hathaway otherwise Warren would surely owe me $100k.  His new offer this year was the employee with the most correct picks through this year’s Sweet 16 will win $100,000, and any employee who guesses every pick in the first two rounds correctly will win $1 million a year for life.  Luckily for Warren, there were no perfect brackets left heading into the Sweet 16.  Buffett wins again.  Recall two years ago he did a publicity stunt where he offered $1B to anyone who could turn in a perfect bracket.  The odds of turning in a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion.  Obviously, no one won, and no one ever will.

Whilst watching the games and sucking down whiskied drinks in honor of St. Patrick, I drew a conclusion that there are many similarities between the March Madness tournament and the stocked market.  They are both fun, unpredictable, crazy, emotional, and possibly rigged.  I threw that last one in there for fun.  I’m sure there is some point shaving going on somewhere.

With a little over a week left in March we are up a cool 120 handles, up double that (240) from the mid-February lows.  With the S&P 500 and Dow up on the year, all time highs are in reachable distance.  If we continue to melt up to a tune of 1-5 handles per day we will be there in no time.  Don’t be surprised if this happens.  The shorts will continue to clamor that we’ve come too far too fast.  And just because “nothing has changed” in the past month doesn’t mean that we went down for a justified reason in January and February.  The only reason we went down in January and early February was so that we could buy the dip and get even larger returns in 2016.

The video below reminds me of the market in the past month.  Texas A&M was down 12 points with less than 45 seconds left.  An impossible feat to overcome. Sure enough, they started chipping away (like the bulls) and UNI got complacent and lazy (like the bears).  What we were left with was the largest last-minute comeback ever.  It really is a site to behold.

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  1. probucks


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