We are getting smoked again today. This morning’s job’s number was trash unless you look solely at wage growth. And I sure as hell didn’t get a raise even though I know I am well deserving of one.
There is still no way we are going to hike again in March unless the Fed seriously wants the S&P to go to 1500. One data point is not enough to hike. If anything we should know that is the case from the Fed kicking the can the last 2 years before their first hike. I think we will hit negative rates before we even think about hitting 1% fed funds.
Check out the Google Trends searches for unemployment and negative interest rates.
Are we really going to raise rates into the looming recession and 6 month high layoffs? I think not.
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From a logical stand point I agree with you. The only fault is this assumes we have a competent fed…
About as competent as our Congress