Thus far I’ve taken 3 positions this morning, and will be looking to take profits in $VHC from last week.
$FSLR May 55 Calls $.50
$CMG May 380 Calls $1.15
$ZNGA $3.30
I am still looking for a spot for Jun Calls in $GS, and a possible lotto long in $RSOL.
OA
Comments »
I cashed out my stake in $ILMN today, much to the expense of a 23% short float and a Friday afternoon rumor of a $88 cash offer. Averaged out at $72, long from $49.
Don’t worry, I’ll get you on the next one.
Comments »I’m going to make this brief…
Take a look at two charts from the top two prospects (in my own opinion)in solar right now…FSLR and WFR.
Both of these stocks are coming into a major inflection point on the graphs above. They’ve spent the last few years carving out bottoms, and are now coming into major volume pockets on their respective charts.
Notice how these stocks both spent multiple years (09, 10, 11) trading in ranges while the rest of the market flourished, then were later massacred in 2011, losing up to 90% of their values. These fast sharp sell-offs moved quickly down the price chart, leaving very thin traces of volume along the way.
Volume pockets are similar to the concept of price gaps, but are much smarter and more useful.
Prices have memory, and when prices enter a “pocket” they travel through this area of little price memory to the next price remembered. In the case of these solar stocks, we’re talking $100 in FSLR and $10 in WFR.
Carry on,
OA
Comments »One of my favorite trading books of all time is “The Nature of Risk” by Justin Mamis. In it he helped me to learn that technical analysis is simply a way to visualize market sentiment and human behavior through what might otherwise be considered random price fluctuations. The following graph is something that Mamis outlined that helps us understand the nature of investor sentiment through price fluctuations. This by far, has had the biggest impact on my trading in the last 5 years. 
Bookmark this chart, copy it, save it, print it out and frame it next to your trading terminal. Once you understand it, it will help you recognize what stage a stock or market is in based on its correlation to this road map of investor sentiment. You can outline almost any market correction on any time frame, and see the two charts line up pretty consistently. The chart below is a total hack-job, but I’ve highlighted various sentiment cycles over the last several market corrections. Note the striking resemblance… 
I will continue to blog about the effectiveness of this tool over time, but I want to present a longer term oriented idea that I mentioned earlier today; Monster Energy. I made an incredible amount of money on this stock in 05-07, and have only traded it on a few occasions since. Most recently I’ve come to the conclusion that the sentiment cycle favors a unique opportunity here. Take a look…
I like the structure down here, and the stock was aggressively bought into weakness today. Over the next few days I will be lining up a longer dated call purchase; something I have seriously lost track of over the last several years.
Longer term trading, that is.
Comments »I picked up WLT Jun 20 calls at $1.50 a few minutes ago.
I am also watching VHC over the next 24 hours, looking for a big pop…
Finally, I am looking to take a longer term position in $MNST here. We’ll discuss why later this afternoon.
UPDATE: Picked up shares of $CZR here too.
Comments »
