FRESHLY SQUEEZED $SHLD SHORTS THIS MORNING

I misplaced my February seasonal data on Sears, but its compelling with a 10 year track record.

*Nevermind, found it: ($SHLD seasonality…last 13 years. March is best (+10.66%), February is 2nd (+8.35%). Both months were up 9 of 13 years.)

Some of the most memorable short squeezes I’ve ever seen were in this stock. As I mentioned in the last couple weeks, I built a position in this stock for the retail exposure…but also for the squeeze potential.

Long a sum of shares that has been keeping me up at night. Now I can get some fucking sleep.

Struggling retailer Sears Holdings Corp. laid out a plan to turn its business around by sharply cutting costs and said it had amended its credit facility to add borrowing power.

Shares of the company shot up 40% in premarket trading, which would push the company’s market value to about $840 million; the stock had dropped 55% over the past three months through Thursday’s close.

Under the restructuring plan announced Friday, the big-box retailer said it hopes to reach at least $1 billion in annualized cost savings and reduce its debt and pension obligations by $1.5 billion.

“To capture these savings, we plan to reduce our corporate overhead, more closely integrate our Sears and Kmart operations and improve our merchandising, supply chain and inventory management,” Chief Executive Edward Lampert said in a statement.

Sears also noted it had “right-sized” its asset-based credit facility, adding $140 million to its available borrowing capacity.

Sears, poised to report its seventh consecutive annual loss, has been stumbling through efforts to return to profitability as customers have continued to shift spending online and away from brick-and-mortar stores. It has focused on assortment, sourcing, pricing and inventory-management practices — sometimes at the expense of sales.

So far this year, Sears has sold its Craftsman brand and a number of real estate properties to generate extra cash. The company is continuing to explore options for its Kenmore, DieHard and Auto Centers business.

Sears also reported preliminary results for the fourth quarter, saying it expects a loss of $535 million to $635 million. It also forecast revenue of $6.1 billion, above the $5.69 billion consensus forecast of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

Ain’t that a peach?

I picked up $TDC calls on January 4th with an expiry of June. I got part of the earnings reaction I wanted…but take a look at the chart and take note of where it has paused.

Since I am nice enough to tell most of you what to do and when to do it, return the favor here and tell me what I ought to do.

This is the worst place to pause. It’s less likely that the stock continues to carry up through this hot pocket over head any time soon.

However, roughly 15% of the float is short, which is down from 30% late last year. The rest of the shorts have to be sweating a little here.

This would have been a much better short term trade, but you couldn’t have convinced me of that at the beginning of Jan.

In this pickle here, what would you do?

I’ve been watching and talking about this in my trading room every day this week, but as I mentioned last week I was on the hunt to short bitcoins.

Since there wasn’t a great way for others to participate in this trade, I didn’t write about it this week. There’s the $GBTC ETF, but I’m not a fan of it.

Anyway, not a chest thumping moment, but more of a sentiment play to watch here. Since I missed the short, I can only stalk a long now, but I’ll wait for a move down to $700 or lower.

Speaking of shorts, Gold hit overbought on my timing oscillator yesterday. As I spoke about in boot camp, this rally we’ve seen in the last two months would be the biggest of the year. Now the play is lower for most of 2017. Each rally will get less and less exciting.

As of $AMZN $820 today, I picked up some puts going out the rest of the month.

Notice the uptick in $XRT today, which in relation to $AMZN has been Ray Lewis’d for years.

According to experts of the internet, this trade will continue to flourish…for a company like Amazon doesn’t deal in rational ceilings or overblown expectations. As I’ve been discussing, I think it’s bottomed for awhile.

I flipped my coin today. Been long $COH, $TGT, $JWN, $LULU, and some shit stomped $SHLD and $UA against some new $AMZN poots.

I’m in deep thought over here this morning, but on the topic of blogging.

If I may, would you share with me a write up or blog I’ve done that was most memorable to you? Could be recent. Could beat any point over the years. It could be more than one if more than one comes to mind.

I’m curious as to what readers respond to the most. Market calls, trade ideas, psychology, breaking news, making fun of others, etc.

Thanks for your participation.

If things align here today, or even tomorrow, I am taking a shot against the beloved $AMZN.

If we see a market bounce here and $AMZN trades closer to $820, I’m pulling out some puts.

My $ACM idea gapped up at the open and faded, which means I have weeks until I can get an entry into this stock. Therefore, next earnings play I am watching is $JEC.

Again…if I get a gap down, I’m a buyer.