The first hit is always on the house.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts


If you’ve watched the action in $TLT lately, $TLT has been bought into the last few gaps down.

This makes continued gap downs hurt even more.

Why does $TLT gap down into last weeks breakout?

Well, there’s a lot of trapped money in that market and the rotation into bonds in 2016 was off the retard-scale.

If this $122 in $TLT fails, she might get fast.


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I like the action in financials and picked up some $AIG calls dated out til June.

More later,


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Stocks are roughly 2% off their highs and bullish sentiment is plummeting.

Fund flows also show money has been working its way out for weeks.

Pain trade here seemingly obvious.


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After Hours with Option Addict is a great platform to discuss trades and analysis in great detail. It allows me to interact with members and walk them through trades and ideas, all while answering questions at the same time.

Blogging is a shit-fuck platform. This is why I dedicate the same effort to blogging like most of you dedicate to your portfolio. Luckily tonight, I am in the mood to share some charts to further expand on my bond mention last night.

All of last year, we talked about the high probability of a top in the bond market. Here’s a look at some LT charts on the 30 year.

Fall of last year I spent a lot of time talking up a top being set in the bond market. Late last year when asked if people should be buying the dip, I said I’d rather wait til Q1-Q2 of this year for a trap to be set. Let me explain…

First, Looking at this chart, bull or bear?

If I switched this up…any difference in opinion now?

What if on further inspection, bonds were overbought here? What if they were also running into a huge roadblock of overhead supply?

The overbought signals here have proven fairly useful. This signal is unique as we run up into the balance of 2015 prices. I am aware the profile thins out here, but prices are at an exhaustion area, right as bond bulls are excited about what seems to be a bullish breakout. This was a trade I mapped out as bond prices plummeted without chute last year.

The gap up in $TLT yesterday caught a gap down and hold today. That’s not a bad start to this idea.


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Rolling into this weeks option expiry my head was already harnessed into a guillotine, awaiting an execution of invested capital. However, as a penance for the gifts bestowed upon me, I had to prove myself worthy of riches by listening to the bullshit of internet queers who belong not in the arena of capital management. Trying to manage a comments section of monkeys throwing feces at one another while mercilessly beating-off their Zecco accounts into oblivion on some OTM calls was not an easy task. Thankfully, the sun is shining a little brighter on me today.

Slowly but surely, positions destined for the boneyard of blown out options are being given the gift of a second chance as stocks like $TWLO, $DDD, $BIDU, $CTRP, $ADSK, and $WDAY are recovering premium at a rampant rate. It just so happens that 60-70% of positions across all my accounts are up more than 2% on such an average day. For this, I give thanks.

While a portion of you sit there in a shit-stained chair immersed in spite and rooting for me to lose, the Gods are doing their part to prevent this.

In part, I am hopeful that $SNAP doesn’t follow this trend. Should it work, many of you will be given a similar gift of second chance. While I root for most of you to win, I’m torn here against the many I hope will lose. Letting your true colors shine in the midst of adversity clearly shows why you are in the position you are in, and quite frankly don’t belong.

In the spirit of Easter, let’s be thankful for the resurrection of premium and be of good cheer.

Oh, and “fuck you” to the rest of you.


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Last year I discussed a scenario in which we’d see a bull trap laid out in bonds. That technical set-up I laid out is happening here in $TLT.

If I am right, that move occurred today, right at my high target this year of $124-125.

I’ll discuss this in After Hours with Option Addict after the close, but I picked up $TLT puts for May.

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