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Option Addict

The first hit is always on the house.

HOTTEST TICKER IN A METROSEXUAL PORTFOLIO

I took a position in $TWNK in my IRA yesterday. True Story, I was actually at A.G’s house the day he closed that deal. That company has a great story line, hard not to take some here as they look to make Twinkies great again.

Long shares just north of $13 for the long haul.

I also picked up $CMG, $TEAM, $GRMN and $COUP calls yesterday.

On fire.

 

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AHWOA OPEN TO ALL!

All week, feel free to join me live at 4:30 ET on the After Hours with Option Addict webinar. Here’s the link to participate:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6804108185361512962

The password this week will be study.

I had planned to spend at least half of the time giving some presentations on Portfolio Management, Trading Style, Psychology & Money Management.

This week, we’ll go Monday through Thursday. I’ll be taking Friday off.

If you have any questions, post them here.

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COME; BE MY SPECIAL FRIEND

Since I am starting off the year in good form, I am feeling like I ought to spread the love and the wealth for the New Year.

Next week, Free Trials!

I had planned to do a multi-day crash course on portfolio management, position sizing, and general strategy adjustments for the New Year. I felt this may help people that have merely done only maintenance strokes to their portfolio in the last year, rather than ‘Taking a Trump” with the rest of us.

Either way, the barrier has been lifted next week, should you decide to stop by and listen to words of wisdom.

You’re welcome.

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TOM LEE IS NOW UNBULLISH

Tom Lee is out with a lot of the same dialogue discussed during Q4 Boot Camp.

Wall Street’s most vocal champion on U.S. stocks over the past two years is now its biggest bear.

Thomas Lee, managing partner and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors in New York, published a note today saying the S&P 500 Index will finish the year at 2,275, about 3 percent lower than the median of 18 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. His caution stems from policy risk and a yield curve adjustment he sees translating into an S&P 500 decline to 2,150 by mid-year before the index rebounds.

The “bond market is signaling inflation confusion,” and a flattening long-term yield curve, he wrote in a client note on Friday. That “generally leads to a 5 to 7 percent selloff,” he said.

It was Lee’s bullishness that made him the least accurate strategist on Wall Street in 2015, when the S&P 500 slid 0.7 percent. He doubled down in 2016 as the benchmark climbed 9.5 percent, and while his target overshot once again, he correctly predicted that the Federal Reserve’s decision to wait until December to hike rates and a recovery in corporate earnings would underpin stock gains into year-end.

Looking beyond the first-half selloff, Lee sees inflation expectations recovering, reversing four years of disinflationary trends. He also cited deregulation as potentially providing a “significant boost” to corporate business activity. Lee sees an 11 percent earnings expansion, a forecast that, while lower than the 12.3 percent estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, would still mark the S&P 500’s best year since 2010.

Wall Street’s new king bull is Jonathan Golub, the chief U.S. market strategist at RBC Capital Markets. He has a year-end target of 2,500. Oppenheimer & Co.’s John Stoltzfus is the second-most bullish, with a 2,450 forecast.

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DOW 20K AND NOW THE PROS ARE BACK

Now that the market has successfully forced people to buy back in and sit at the tables again, I’m less enthusiastic at who’s now sitting across from me.

Leaving the week on a market milestone headline has me thinking about hedging up a bit…even though I’ve been buying and selling all week long.

I think this year, sentiment will be much easier to gauge. Last year was fairly easy, as I felt like the only bull left at the start of 2016…but as I’ve said, the market will have lots of fun welcoming in last years nonbelievers.

Start thinking in terms of pain trades this year and market action should be easier to gauge.

I’m in the process of building a retard-o-meter to gauge when the market has gotten to hyphy.

Have a pleasant weekend.

OA

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TWAS A WELL TIMED SELL OF MY BITCOINS, NO?

No replies on my top call of the Bitcoin’s?

I knew it was a great sell when someone replied they’d buy them on a breakout of 2000 or some shit.

I can call tops too, you know. I just wait for the actual tops.

As you were.

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