Back in 2015, I talked a lot about the various asset correlations to 1998. Specific to the dollar, that pattern/correlation helped us bet against the dollar in Dec 2016 via an $FXE long.
Here, we are close to the bottom for the greenback. That said, I thought that Gold would be my best bet to play this…especially considering the headlines.
After the bell, I’ll take you through some correlation analysis – specific to my reasoning on why this is the best play.
I still have one more batch to buy in $DGLD, but have enough on now to get rolling.
OA
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Any individual stocks you would short? NAK?
Haven’t dug into any miners yet.
$DGLD doesn’t look to have quite bottomed yet. It seems to have stalled going down at 43.15….give or take.
Picked up lake today at 13.3 and 13.65
@OA so – you’re betting on a pending USD rally ? Likely to come from Fed deleveraging their balance sheet in Q4?
“Here, we are close to the bottom for the greenback.”
Insert any reasoning you see fit.
It’s OA vs the world. I love it. F everyone
How so? People bought into this move today?
No way anyone initiated a new long here…Gold has been grinding up for a month and a half.
Really like the call.
Mass majority of people and “experts” I read were long gold and are holding here and calling this a breakout to higher prices. If you know otherwise, I’d be interested to see. Everyone has been long gold. Know much more people that added to position today than go short
Volatility time? TVIX going to make a move higher? Or watch the after hours delight fade with the morning open and fake news clarification?
Bought 60% of full position in $DGLD at $42.08 this a.m.
These trades make me anxious, because trading off of someone else’s insecurities is the only trade that makes me emotional anymore. So I have to be careful. Going short in a loved name used to do it for me (I call it The Big Short vanity seeking), but I have learned that a 300% gain in a put earns just as much as a 300% gain on a call, so it was time to be a bigger man.
Nice trade
Jeff – where do you see gold retracing to near term? 1280?
Technically, Gold hasn’t had it’s panic move yet. But eventually this goes to new lows. $900-$950.
pipe dream. gold will never get below 1000 bro.
Lol. Your confidence doesn’t mean much to me…but I guess I’m glad you have your own opinion?
many trade gold… few understand it.
I never trade it, and understand it just fine.
But near term, yes…1280.
Today feels too easy to buy. I don’t like what my spidey sense is feeding me for the next few days. I did want to buy.
TVIX for a trade. Very tight stop.
OA – older play you picked was HCLP. Any thoughts on revisiting this one? SCLA up 2% at the moment but HCLP flat. If you had to pick something in energy sector right now what would it be?
It’s a good thought. I was debating shorting an index with a weekly or VIX. Because VIX is already elevated I’m wondering which will offer the bigger move.
I’m going to YOLO an $SPY short just a tiny bit higher.
eek. seems like a bad move to me. market is too strong
hit my bid at $246.20-246.24 range (didn’t see the tick right when it hit but somewhere in there), we’ll see what happens.
Let’s do it!
Anyone still in WATT? Is this one bottoming out?
If you take a position, and need someone to talk you into keeping it…just sell.
Can’t wait for the summer session next week. I need lots of help! Have funds for 5 positions or so. It’s not my day job but love to trade. Not looking for long term holds so always asking about the ones that seemed to have stalled if you will label it like that. Thanks again for all you do. I did sell WATT for a small loss but looking to re-enter.