iBankCoin
The first hit is always on the house.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,758 Blog Posts

STAGE ONE: DENIAL

Worst case scenario for the $SNAPtards was a gap up.

Rather than exit the position, they’re buying puts. Sentiment hasn’t changed yet. Too easy.

So very #twitterish.

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109 comments

  1. kamel

    So, on the teaching kids theme – I got my two oldest kids who have jobs to invest $220 each into the SNAP trade. I explained what the setup was and why I was investing and asked if they wanted to join. I think they are just following me because I recommended it, but I want to use this to get them exposed to trading and interested in understanding the markets now….I got some April 23 calls for us this morning.

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  2. Pip53

    Let the 35 point move over the next 30 days begin. A la TWTR

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  3. juice

    dead kat bounce 😛

    let’s see some follow-thru before victory laps ensue

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  4. lesurgeon

    Loving it. Do you have a price target on Snap or just waiting till the sentiment rolls over and all the shirts are begging for mercy?

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  5. matt_bear

    $FEYE. watch out.

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  6. kamel

    Just an FYI, quiet period ends next Monday (3/27) and there were 26 underwriters for the SNAP IPO

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    • mongoosereflexes
      mongoosereflexes

      Please explain the implications for a newbie. Thanks

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      • kamel

        Starting Monday, those investment banks that brought SNAP shares to the market are going to start posting recommendation on the stock and price targets. Also, SNAP can make comments regarding their company…or present at conferences. Whether that makes a difference is debatable, but it is a datapoint to keep in mind. If everyone comes out with buy ratings or sell ratings, that can definitely impact sentiment on the stock or people could position in anticipation of the news deluge (i.e. this week).

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      • moonshot

        Quiet period is when insiders are not allowed to buy or sell the stock, surrounding a major event like an IPO, acquisition, earnings release, etc.

        Expiration of quiet period after the IPO means that said underwriters may be selling some or all of their shares.

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        • Weirdo Jay

          no, that’s lockup period… that’s 90 days.

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        • moonshot

          Thanks, I stand corrected. I think I was confusing it with blackout period. I think the CEO of my startup may have misused the term, as I recall him referring to quiet periods around earnings reports.

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          • jay

            I think sometimes they may both be 90 days. Quiet period is 40 or 90 days and lockup is 90 or 180 days.

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  7. Tom

    How about JWN? Aversion?

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  8. ferd

    It’s a SNAP party on OA’s blog! “Definitely will be north of $30 by option expiration.”

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  9. ThomasJefferson

    I only purchased half of the planned double position I wanted to go with on Friday, because I feel like the sentiment on the Blog is a little too optimistic. Even on the Blog, Deutsche Bank was dismissed. Maybe it’s the hot streak that has everybody on board with the trade, but it should never be easy for we blog commenters. When we are not afraid, I am afraid. Or at least leaving room to add.

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    • Option Addict

      I started it. I did the same thing on TWTR’s first up day. Had to stick to tradition. Soon, I will not mention this ticker, nor will I answer one question here about it. I’ll let folks fend for themselves.

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    • dragun

      its always a party in here. this just happens to be a nice set up on an IPO.

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    • desiigner

      Same… my inner feels are uncomfortable bought way less than planned

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    • greenlander

      Yeh I am equally queasy and excited. I added May 22 calls

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  10. ferd

    Anyone participating in today’s Goldman-provided put entry into NVDA?

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  11. AFlow90

    SNAP drama aside, am I the only one who wants to fade this pop in AMD? It doesn’t look like its got enough gas to make a new high.

    Upside risk has to be minimal here given the magnitude and verticality of this run, no?

    Someone tell me I’m an idiot, lol.

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    • Option Addict

      Are you on AHWOA or on the Boot Camp? I’ve been talking about that idea for a bit.

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      • AFlow90

        On bootcamp, but behind in listening. Part way through session 4 at the moment. AMD was mentioned very briefly in Q&A for session 3, iirc.

        I’d love to be able to participate in AHWOA but can’t currently due work constraints. Hopefully that changes soon.

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  12. Quality Control Inferno
    Quality Control Inferno

    After a nearly year long hiatus I’ve taken a break from Bitcoin and returned to take a flier on this. Why not with everyone on ST betting against it?! Maybe this turd has wings.

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  13. Quality Control Inferno
    Quality Control Inferno

    I bought on Friday actually so maybe take gains? Lol

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    • Option Addict

      LOL.

      Casual mention of Bitcoin and SNAP. Some things never change.

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      • Quality Control Inferno
        Quality Control Inferno

        Do what? I didn’t come here to pick a fight man.

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        • Option Addict

          I assume you’re waiting on the yield curve to invert to call your top now that everyone has already called it a million times over.

          Don’t bring up old shit. Don’t reflect on great analysis of the past that you dismissed the way you did. Let it be sacred and respected.

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          • Quality Control Inferno
            Quality Control Inferno

            Jeff, dude I was wrong you were right. I respect it. What else can I say? I’m just here to take a flier on a trade on a turd of a stock. Why would I do that if I didn’t respect your analysis? I got out of hand I admit it. I am humbled. You deserve all the credit in the world for being on their other side of most people.

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          • Option Addict

            Dude, wasn’t looking for any of that. Just rattling your chain.

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          • cascadia

            “Nobody fucks with the Jesus.”

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  14. cascadia

    $CETX pushing down on the upward trend line.
    $ASNA going back to 2005 to relive the good days.
    $DIN looks to be retesting the original breakout move from 2012.

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  15. Quality Control Inferno
    Quality Control Inferno

    OA no seriously I regret the heated battle between us. I took this shit personally and it clouded me. I burned out about a year ago and had to take a step away from the market. It was affecting my health to be involved in the market because it was so stressful the ups and downs at the time. Been watching this market in amazement, waiting to see where it blows off. Anyways.

    I’ve learned a lot in the 3 years I’ve followed you. I’m just here to have a little fun with this trade. Good luck bro.

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  16. baba

    That TWTR prediction was unreal. what target/timeline are you giving for SNAP?

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  17. baba

    someone mentioned SINA here recently. Looking good, I may buy it

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  18. cascadia

    Anyone interested in $GRAM?
    Seems like the second flush of sellers has played out, might be a good LT play with a small position.

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    • Mensch

      Been watching but the legal overhang terrifies me.

      If I were to buy a soon to be BK dumpster fire it would be $ADPT, the short % is much higher.

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      • cascadia

        That’s the point though right? The terror is the spot to buy, I want to be buying the frozen orange juice concentrate as people are throwing their tickets at me.
        $ADPT is interesting too.

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  19. Option Addict

    Frank. Seriously. Go fuck yourself.

    You’ve been banned.

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  20. dragun

    Jeff,

    would you add additional calls after a pull back after the first move? Just reviewed the TWTR chart and it seemed like almost 50% initial, small pull back then final move for approx 100% from bottom. Just wondering if you tkink there is room to add more?

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    • Option Addict

      Ray,

      Let’s assume there’s an upward swing here. How much you own should answer that question.

      Am I going to “ok” you to take unnecessary risk here? Nope. How much you trade rests on you. I used to get caught up in that shit when I first started, and there’s zero advantage for me to comment on how much you should buy.

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      • dragun

        No worries here Jeff. At the end of the day any trade should rest with the person who executed it. Just wondering if you ever take advantage of pull backs in these moves that’s all. I always hold my own counsel like not taking the Friday YOLOs, but taking more time on the DB calls last fall. cheers

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  21. aflow90

    BIDU getting leg swept again, it seems.

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    • Option Addict

      You seem to have missed that definition entirely.

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      • aflow90

        How? Stock found support, got the pop, and is now rolling over again. Sure, it hasn’t actually taking out the lows to run the stops, but its the same exact price action, no?

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        • Option Addict

          It’s five dollars away?! You throw out some crazy shit.

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          • aflow90

            Let me rephrase since I think you misunderstood me: If this price action in BIDU runs the stops below 170, then it will have swept the leg.

            I guess I should’ve said “setting up the sweep.” It hasn’t happened yet.

            Are we slightly closer to agreement?

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          • Option Addict

            lol, you and I are on very different wave lengths. Seems I/we disagree on everything.

            Maybe that’s the nature of these comments you leave though.

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          • aflow90

            Care to clarify? Hard to justify spending money trying to educate myself on your style if I’m just constantly getting it wrong. How is this different that the LVS sweep?

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          • Option Addict

            I have to clarify every comment you’ve made here. BIDU, Gold, QCOM…etc. Maybe that’s what it is.

            You can’t look at the two and see any difference?

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          • aflow90

            Sure, there are plenty of differences. None that seem so critical to me that the idea of BIDU leg sweeping would be ridiculous.

            You don’t see any similarities? LVS Feb 10-14 looks very much like the past few days of BIDU. Consolidation around support, pop, and then fade. Only key difference (to me) is that BIDU hasn’t followed through yet with taking out the lows.

            You’re telling me the set up is completely different. I’ll email you. This is probably not the best forum for this discussion.

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          • cascadia

            I think he’s saying you’d have to sweep the low close of this whole move at $152.13 in order to sweep the leg…
            (assuming one throws away the $100 intraday low, which is unlikely to be revisited)

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        • shawnji

          The whole reason for a leg sweep would be for the sharps to clear out the stops and start accumulation. Once those stops are gone, and the stock rips higher, why would a down day mean another leg sweep? By definition, it can only happen once in a short time, unless I’m way out to lunch here.

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          • aflow90

            Another leg sweep? When was the first? Support is at 173, lets assume you enter there. The big up move in early Feb was sold, and it went from 188 back down to 173 but never took out the lows.

            The only day it traded below 173 was 3/15. Is that what you are saying is the leg sweep day?

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          • Option Addict

            That’s where you are lost. There’s been a few since earnings.

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          • aflow90

            I see it now. It was basically all of the price action since the earnings reaction stabilized.

            It wasn’t a case of “missing the definition.” Saying that only confused the situation further.

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          • Option Addict

            But even if you have the definition, is the comment today worth speaking? Look how far away we are, and the rally that ensued after you left the comment.

            In this context, that would make every down day another “here comes leg day” you know?

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          • aflow90

            That’s a fair criticism. I wouldn’t have left the comment had I understood the price action correctly.

            There was one day a few months ago where we bought SHLD and PYPL on the same day at essentially the same price completely independent of one another.

            How far we’ve diverged, lol.

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          • Option Addict

            That’s not possible, but I’m flattered.

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          • aflow90

            What’s not possible? I commented saying I was buying SHLD and PYPL, you responded to both comments saying you were doing the same.

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          • Option Addict

            You got those ideas from me days prior to, right?

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          • aflow90

            You had mentioned both in Q4 boot camp which was several weeks prior to those comments.

            So sure, maybe not totally independent since you identified the names. But we both saw attractive entries at the same time and there was no discussion on the blog here at the time. That was the independent part.

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          • Option Addict

            I kick ticker symbols out that I am buying. Isn’t that how you are always following the same names as I?

            Anyway, let’s move on. This is dumb.

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    • awanka

      We need more allegories like “sweep the leg.” I often feel like what we’re learning is the martial arts of trading.

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  22. Brian

    Even my phone is pushing Bearish bias on $SNAP now… I mean, what could go wrong…

    http://imgur.com/2M2gqYq

    This blog might be a little giddy, but it’s pretty isolated excitement.

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  23. awanka

    OA, do you still like SNAP bro?

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  24. ThomasJefferson

    Started $NVDA puts here.

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    • kamel

      yeah, wish this is where I had started mine. I was looking at the 102/3 level or the 108 level and I thought the pattern looked ripe for a reversal at 102….I was wrong

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  25. kamel

    today’s candle in SNAP isn’t pretty

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  26. JDub

    i can see the sweat beads forming on these bears

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  27. stocksnblondes

    I understand the theory behind the trade (i.e. new IPO with unproven business model and very bearish sentiment), but maybe because of how TWTR played out, you actually won’t see the same pattern repeated with SNAP. At least now without some fundamental news to show there is a path to monetization. No skin in the game here–just my thoughts.

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    • Option Addict

      You were confident enough to post that even without a position, so I think I’m still on to something here.

      Everyone said that with $BABA too.

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  28. PartTimeLover

    Speaking of wedgies…

    let’s have a look at BBBY
    awful dead money for the past 2 years on the daily. https://www.screencast.com/t/8rOqQ71DUxb5

    . The weekly and monthly are awful and yet 99 pct owned by institutions and about 8 pct short float. My long history with this name is a kleenex box special. Shitty options too. eps in about 2 weeks
    The OA indicator gave a signal a month ago but have seen the delay previously- buy signal- then a lower low and boom.

    ergo- I am looking to go long calls-

    probably should ban me for writing ergo


    not sure where I posted earlier-
    but I like the rounded bottom on STZ- looking for first to fill the gap and then challenge highs- would have liked to have seen it a week ago for 5 points less- maybe we get a back and fill-

    and severe garbage- PRGO- thinking it needs a fast down to set up a long.

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  29. matt_bear

    does it make you nervous at all that you got 100+ comments from your post today? that snuck up out of nowhere too.

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