Let’s do a run of “Ask OA.”
Got a question? Post it. Stocks, Market, Life – you name it. I’ll leave this open til the close.
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Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts
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If not a trader, which top 3 career choices would you prefer?
Something positive. Sports medicine, or own/operate a center for special needs kids.
Thoughts on $M?
Retail was one of my top themes of the New Year. $M was in that list.
Yo, whats your take here? Think we are topping out this week?
Leveling off, not topping.
Ask some interesting questions you retards.
Thoughts on Fly DICtating your post?
Faggot
Does Fly continually flood your email with comspiracy theories?
Odds of your kid winning this competition in class? 🙂
So far so good. He did buy $LL.
If you couldn’t manage your own money, with who would you invest it?
I’d invest in myself. Start businesses.
how many championships would the Shaq/Penny Magic have won if they stayed together? How long would the elite level run lasted?
Assuming he signed for 7 years, no more than 3.
which years then? The Lakers run went all the way through 2002. Does Jordan still win the 97 and 98 championships?
Jordan still wins in 97-98. Then Orlando repeats, maybe three-peats.
Best sentiment temperament indicator for you: blog, AHWOA, or your trading room?
Blog comments. They’re move diverse and not so closely correlated to me, my style, or opinions.
I too started out as a broker, right out of college. That mostly sucked, but we had a few clients who liked options trading so I was able to get some experience under my belt.
I’m doing business development for a quant fund now, which I like, but would love to make a career out of trading. It’s tough to give up what could be a lucrative, stable career for the uncertainty of being a professional trader.
Got any tips?
Do both until its a no-brainer.
I felt the outcome wasn’t uncertain. I was excited, not nervous.
Until you reach that level of confidence in yourself, why give up comfort and certainty?
Ha, if you had asked me last Friday I’d say that I felt ready. Then I have a day like today – I’m getting destroyed. Gave up 50% of my gains on the year.
What was your threshold for confidence? Hitting a certain level of asset base? Average annual returns? Something qualitative?
50%??? What the ufck happened?
+1
My longs are down and my shorts are up. -5% (at the account level) in a day.
Some of it was window-dressing due to opex. I had more “fake” value in expiring contracts than I thought. Not much could be done about that, other than maybe counting it all up exactly.
Bull, bear, or no opinion on eur/usd? Thx!
I own euros as of last week. I haven’t owned euros since 2010.
Favorite reading (professional, personal or both)?
Fly in 2006-2008 was all time for me. That was the only blog I ever went to on a weekly basis.
Wow. Just saw Nat gas. More room to fall here??
Are you in a trade?
No. Just catching up on it now. Reading about the record level rig counts currently.
Riding the back of ThomasJefferson’s question, I’ve seen you read the Fat Pitch blog in the past which has been a fantastic resource. Any other blogs or sources to expand the arsenal for quality information?
I don’t actually read it. But I have read about a half dozen of his weekly summary posts in my lifetime. His twitter nuggets are decent, but the good ones are usually forwarded to me. I’m not following twitter very often.
I literally don’t read or follow anyone.
thoughts on $MRVL pre and post earnings.
None, sorry. I jumped out at 16.
First and last concert you attended?
How big would your returns be in 98-2000 if you had your current skills back then?
Would you rather let Donald Trump pee in your mouth or go down on Rosie ò Donald?
“Rossie ohLaLa O’Donnell”
Holy shit dude. What’s the punishment for walking out? I’d take the punishment.
Death, Suffocation from Carrot-Top sitting on your face.
Your Choice. You decide.
How do you deal with negative emotions when your positions are getting crushed?
Realize it’s better than being told by some asshole that I have to work overtime or come in on a Saturday.
Lol, I imagined you getting roaring drunk, but that’s good too.
Stopped drinking long long ago.
Zero drinks? If yes, what was the motivation? Asking because it seems a lot of the people I view as successful are not drinkers.
It made the lows much lower.
It correlated fairly high with problems in relationships as well.
If the market is leveling right now and then goes higher, do you see the next correction, assuming there is one, to be surprising and very sharp?
Not surprising, until the tail end of it.
If you could fight anyone in history who would it be?
My neighbor.
rofl
Do over; Thoughts on underlying fundamentals of HMY?
They won’t matter til next year.
Any thoughts on emerging markets? I got out of eem at about 38 setting 38.50 but looks like it busted thru that no problem.
Setting 38.50 as resistance I meant to say
Swear we discussed this last year. Bullish.
Prestone or Quaker State?
Rofl. Make it Quaker state.
Which stock would you buy for your kid’s long term account ?
For the contest?
No, for his real long tem investment .
Last position I put in there was $FDN in 2014. He’s got a dozen stocks in there.
1. Is $10K enough to get started with a swing trading account?
2. Thoughts on $VZ for long ownership?
1. Yes.
2. No.
Would you consider crowdfunding your hedge fund so we can own some stake in it?
That’s worth some thought.
I’d invest!
If you ever need a hand raising capital…. I’m your guy
i could put a few sheckles in too
Longer term (30+ years) do you think it’s possible to average over 20% annual returns.
How much money would one be managing?
Do you really want Beechoo emailing you at midnight about returns?
Start with 100,000. So, you’d have 23 million in 30 years.
Only 100k? Definitely. I’d murder that.
A lot of research points to it being impossible. Good to have an opinion opposite of that. Numbers start getting silly if you’re starting with over 1 million.
One last one… did you end up buying $LNG when you were studying volume profiles?
If so, did you hold it all the way to $35?
Nope, can you believe that? Of all the ones I marked to follow, that had the most unrealistic objective. It taught me a good lesson about what is realistic doesn’t always matter in this game.
Multiple questions 🙂 –
– What are some of the characteristics needed to trade fulltime?
– How big of a portfolio do you need to make good money (~$500k salary)? What hours are required to make this a reality?
– Best way to supplement trading career? Sell research? Start side businesses?
!. Financial stability, no debt, reserves, and an edge.
2. 500k salary? I believe you have few years of experience, right? If so, 25 million.
3. I’d prefer a position in the industry, to learn more about it.
15 years of experience trading part time but been looking to do this fulltime for a while. It’s hard to quit when the job pays well.
Then no reason to leave in my opinion.
As inflation continues to tick up, when does service cost on our massive debt cause a massive disruption.
2019, by my calculations.
1. Buy $UNG here (I’m long)?
2. Best memory?
3. #1 on bucket list?
1. Yes
2. Here’s a recent one – I watched my little guy (6 yrs old now) walk out the door, up to his bus…turn and wave at mom, laugh out loud while clapping his hands, then walk up the bus stairs all by himself. Had I recorded that, I would watch it everyday.
3. Chapel Hill for Duke v UNC.
Good stuff
If you were to invest in five stocks today for the long-term (around 5 years), which ones would you select? The assumption here is that you do not have a position yet. Thanks in advance OA! I always appreciate these types of posts.
Anything I buy today will produce heat within a month.
Only one name comes to mind today: $HAIN.
$MNST only if it gets whacked over earnings.
Same with $KBR – lower over earnings and I am interested.
Thanks for the responses OA, and your confidence and swagger is on point.. I do like KBR for the long term
Does CTRP go up 15 percent plus on earnings tomorrow?
If you sell here, yes. If not, no.
What do you believe is the most common set up that people believe works that doesn’t work? Is it buying “on a break above resistance?”
Not sure how I would quantify that.
Referring to chart set ups like “cup and handle – buy the break out on a print above the highest handle print”
Desert island album/disk/mp3/wav, etc.?
CTRP – no position right now. Like the set up for earnings and that other China names have done well – I will get near money call position tomorrow.
Which would you rather own – million dollar lot with awesome house but .5 acre or less land or million dollar lot with pretty good house and 2 acres plus of land?
Both located within 10 to 15 minutes of good quality city or 25 to 30 away – same distance each.
Less land better house. I have land now and I’d take less for more house
Why don’t you start a new blog? Fly has gone off the rails
I’d simply just retire mine.
Has anyone setup an automated way to play your trades in your premium service? I can’t follow in real-time so I struggle to justify the cost.
I discontinued it years ago. Decided to pursue money management on a bigger scale instead. If you can beat the market why autotrade? People are throwing money out there on guys that perform.
And if the crowd can’t justify $100 bucks a month for that, I’m totally fucking with the wrong crowd. Know what I mean?
I do. Whats the min invest for money management? Do you have a prospectus?
250k. Prospectus will be done soon. I’m still a month or two out.
Whats your take on the vix continuing lower here…. how is there so much complacency here with trump. Any chance for a pullback anytime soon in spx
I’ve said for a long time VIX will move to single digits. This isn’t low yet.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/17/strategist-tom-lee-says-its-time-to-own-the-fang-stocks-again.html
Bought $FB calls at yesterdays open. That’s why Tom changed his tune.
Thanks for the Q and A, OA. Love these.
Were you wise enough to purchase $GRMN beyond standard Feb expiry? I was not.
Negative.
Thoughts on CCJ?
Also, some bio plays. thoughts on GBT and VSAR?
Go back to my late OCT AHWOA recording. I had a buy tee’d up under $8. I’d be a dumbfuck troll to buy over $10.
I’ll take that as a resounding No. Lol
Who are your top 2-4 to win the NCAA men’s march madness?
I’d like to see KU make it…their small ball style has been good, it just depends if they get punished in the post.
Oregon is playing great ball. I like UCLA too. It’s a west coast win this year.
Great topic!
Added to QCOM… wake me if you find a good setup.
If you had to choose one trait that you wanted to see in your children, what would it be?
To always stop and help others.
Yes! Mine is empathy.
What’s your thoughts on BWA? I really like this one over the next 5 years.
Like the idea, would love a lower entry though.
Why do you think you are such a good trader? And do you feel like you are wired differently or just great at learning this or both?
I feel I am wired that way. Very competitive, always learning, always trying to get better. In fact, I went on a rant in AHWOA today about that.