I think it’s time for this group. Again.
Long $XBI calls.
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Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts
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Jeff how far out are you on these?
A month.
Jeff are you expecting Technology to have a good January.?Or will tax selling effect the rally.
Why January?
Because last 3 Januarys have been poor. Tech looks solid and has lagged the market. I think tech runs into earnings. Do have opinion of tech into earnings?
I don’t look at things that way. I’m the opposite. My view…since not all tech stocks will beat earnings, I try to find the best set-ups. So, stock picker still my strong suit.
Hi OA, thanks for the transparency and trade idea today and yesterday. In regards to yesterday’s decision to go long $BABA, did you use calls or the individual stock itself? Thank you in advance for the help.
BABA was one of my biggest positions coming into the year. Reduced it significantly not far off the highs. Looking to add back in at $85.
Yesterday I bought calls.
Not sure if you were tracking the stock position, which is the reason I gave details. That and to combat counter questions lol.
Thanks for the response and for reading my mind haha. Is the $BABA position (the stock itself) part of your long term holdings in the IRA? Thanks again.
Yes, $BABA is in my IRA. Why all the questioning over this stock?
It revolves more around the types of stocks/positions I’m considering for my IRA. By no means am I questioning your calls; I’m trying to get ideas of how and what I want to put in mine. Apologies if I came off the wrong way.
I know you aren’t questioning the call.
Yeah – as far as the BABA trade – I got the puts around 88.3. That was why I posted this morning when I did so it would not be an “if BABA goes down I will claim I bought the puts higher” trade. So – to go to your point about analysis – I waited to see the rejection before getting puts again. That said – respectfully – the trade has nothing to do with you being long as you might figure since days and days ago I posted that BABA looked like it was consolidating before a move lower.
OA
Would you play with the SPX options as the volatility is getting lower and lower?
Stop and think about that for a minute.
I understand what you mean.
When overloaded with calls of individual stocks, a SPX put on the expiry week as a hedge is what I am thinking.
So you’re asking if I would hedge? Actually, I could only think you were asking if I would trade the market here.
The answer is something only you can come up with. I have no idea what you have invested, or where, or how much. All yours.
My bad. Let me rephrase.
Would you play SPX here as a play or as a hedge?
Wait, these are two different things.
yes sir. Thankfully I did not go crazy on this yet, just exploring.
I am so confused. Apples and oranges.
Ok, let me leave it here 🙂
I agree both are different. Just exploring this idea, as there is lot of potential (options) on one big green/red day.
So just checking.
But you are asking if I would hedge or play the market? Is there a market set-up worth playing? A big move coming? Plus, you know I don’t play the market.
Would I hedge? That depends. Am I over invested? Is the market going to get crushed? Do I need a hedge?
🙂
I know you never play the market, and that way of looking really helped me. I stopped watching the futures and overthinking.
This is more about understanding the potential of playing/hedging. Not for playing it on a regular basis.
sorry for your time…I should have asked myself those questions you are asking
And – I should add – who knows – maybe BABA will be bought like cheap hot cakes the beginning of the year. Wouldn’t be surprised since you have a great eye for trades. I just see things a little differently in that it seems funds dumped really big the first 15 minutes of the day on Dec. 22 down to low-86’s and then arguably stepped back knowing a strong overall market would bring in buyers. I was fortunate to already have last week puts going into the “counterfeit list” news so I dumped those Thursday morning – waited – and then rolled some of the profits into Jan Week 1 near money on low 88 prints.
I guess what I meant was, buying the puts after a 20% drop. I guess I struggle with that logic, if you believe in the concepts of overbought or oversold.
For sake of discussion -and to show I’m not one of those “short on the brain” guys – I caught a good very short-term TSLA call trade from 203ish to around 212. Of course – sad I didn’t hold it a few more days. Point being – 203 to 205 placed it almost 15 percent above its recent low and so arguably one could say it was risky to go calls from there. With BABA – I’m playing it for a panic flush next week on the idea that if it doesn’t start strong like some hope – there might be some quick panic selling. Think it will start off the opposite of what Barron’s and other mainstreams believe as they just proclamined it as a top Internet pick for the new year. Thinking there is a chance if it prints in the 84’s – it will flush to 81/82 intraday and then quickly bounce back. As if of course I know for sure this will happen – maybe will not – but that is what I’m playing for.
the fly is back to posting doomsday scenarios a.k.a. 0Hedge.
Maybe he will be right someday but so far the years have slipped by with mounting losses. His 2014-15 oil long killed him.
There is a disturbance in the force. Dow down triple digits, gold up, bitcoin up. Looks like the beginning of a nice quick drop to the lower bollinger band. Then back up we go.
XBI huh? Didn’t you say earlier this year that CNCR was the vehicle of choice going forward?
No, I never said that.
I bought CNCR in my IRA. Hard for that to be a “vehicle of choice” for an option trader, eh?
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2015/10/26/better-biobasket/
Sorry you missed the point of that discussion.
Perhaps you didn’t mean to say “Put aside $IBB, $XBI, $LABU or $LABD. From here, focus on $CNCR.”
But since evidently CNCR has no options, i digress.
You could have started with the title “A BETTER BIOBASKET.”
The context was an ETF and diversification, no? Diversification for investing or trading? Baskets? C’mon man.
I did mean to say what I said. I mean everything I say. Perhaps you missed the ongoing point and conversation? Perhaps you misunderstood? Perhaps you weren’t aware that an ETF that trades so small has no options?
Right boss. If CNCR had options would you pick that instead here?
If the options were better, it’s the same chart.
Bang….MBLY, great call Jeff. my option expires tomorrow too.
Risk on!
BIDU AGN BMY PM – is my shortlist now.
Holding BIDU weeklies, does not look great at the moment.
Any thoughts on BX here Jeff?
Also more generally – what’s your risk process when your trading 1 month expiry? Do you hold to expiration and size the position so a 100% loss is acceptable? Do you ever cut or roll to a different contract?
My call to buy $BX was back in Jan.
When trading a low probability/high reward approach, trade small.
I’ve owned the stock since Jan but was thinking about adding some Jan calls here for a swing
Any thoughts on BX here Jeff?
Also more generally – what’s your risk process when your trading 1 month expiry? Do you hold to expiration and size the position so a 100% loss is acceptable? Do you ever cut or roll to a different contract?
PacRim Emerging 5 day performance +2.2%
We just keep buying their crap hand over fist
posted on the old post….I had a note to look at buying GLD puts when it got above 110….now thinking 111.5 may be a better spot,
I just closed $EXK at $3.85 and shorted /GC.
The most dangerous yet rewarding stock in the market. Trade it like a 3x.
NFLX looks compelling assuming this 124.5 level holds
Anyone looking to nibble on $ATI?
I am.
can we talk about the entry into this position in AHWOA?
How about now? I’ll put up a post.
awesome
Bidding $LN options here.
Otherwise just getting dug back in after a while off. Lookng at my January positions. December price action is taking a toll on those. Hopefully everyone playing shorter dated paper isn’t still living with those.
Among the stocks that I never stop talking about, $NMBL looks pretty great on a weekly chart. There’s a lot of chatter about small caps right now so that could be one worth a look.
Anyone hopping back in AMZN?
Thinking Jan 780’s. Out on a break of todays lows.