The NASDAQ is making up lost time here today. The broadening pattern I’ve been walking through here on my blog has confirmed higher here today. We walked through this last night in Boot Camp as well.
This setup forecasts over 400 points of upside from here.
Remember, cash positions were massive coming into this. This is what happens when you are forced to chase. This has been my thesis all year.
I added $WB, $MBLY, $AMBA and $GPRO calls. Booked gains in $TRIP…and hoping to book gains in $WYNN here shortly.If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
GLD selling has some volume behind it
GLD new lows but GDX higher lows.
Would be more inclined to fade GDX’s relative strength here….. GLD led GDX on the way up earlier in 2016, and could very well be a case of the reverse on the way down given the opening gap within the last few weeks….
Got stopped out of GLD longs. 0 for 3 on GLD this yr.
How do you see the rate hike influencing this upside run?
It’s already priced in. The only thing that could impact prices is if they dramatically change the timeframe for future hikes or provide commentary to unsettle the markets . (I personally think that there’s too much complacency going in and there may be a near term downside surprise, but every hedge I’ve put on has been a spectacular failure, so take that for what it’s worth)
NFLX looks like it is ready to move up again
Thanks for the update OA. I totally agree and will really start to press my bets if the nasdaq closes at weekly highs. As you said, I think this could run much higher and all the negative sentiment is just fuel for the fire.
PANW having a nice inside day – would love for it to respond similarly to how TSLA did last week after its inside day.
I pulled this data about 30-45m ago.
57% of stocks are up
56.6% of 1%+ movers are up
41.4% of 4%+ movers are up
Of the stocks that are up, 41.3% are up more than 1%
Of the stocks that are up more than 1%, 8.6% are up more than 4%
Of the stocks that are down, 42.8% are down more than 1%
Of the stocks that are down more than 1%, 15.85% are down more than 4%
The positive thing is, the breadth is not too strong and the healthy amount of losers make for low correlation.
The fact that the losers are catching on to a downtrend and chase out of stocks more than the winners are catching on is mildly concerning.
I am thinking this is more of a rotation to riskier assets – looking at my screen today it looks a lot like the 2s are popping. Tech was ignored in the initial rally, but definitely are catching a bid here.
GPRO? Have we reached the trash-reaching part of the cycle? Someone forgot to tell YY about today’s move..
$PYPL looks good here.
OA, question…this formation you keep referencing looks a lot like a bearish megaphone…putting aside historical reference showing a near-term break to the upside, why is this NOT a megaphone and/or what determines if in fact it is one forming on a longer timeframe?
It is a megaphone…or broadening formation. There have been five of them in the last five years, all resolved higher. I don’t assume them to be bearish.
I played GOOGL last week, followed your thought process for the trade. Just wanted to say , Thank you . I skipped the trade 2 weeks prior, which I would do usually.
Is this divergence between Russell and the major indices bad
Nah I’m guessing just rotation. Musical chairs isn’t a bad thing.
Feels like the right place to cut longs. Day before rate hike. Everyone calling for breakout and Dow 20k
So did you do it?
Or you going to watch and lose money while it happens, but then comment on how you knew it was going to happen?
Did this post mark the top? Look at the timing
Yeh, I’m 200% short. 😉
I was reporting, fuck face. I didn’t make a fresh call here.
ENT up 24% after hours and not a scrap of news on TD or yahoo?
THink or Swim has the headline posted 4:15 about Southwest going with them. Nice little leak ahead of the news looks like
Re-entered BIDU as a long term play. Weekly chart consolidating great.
I never heard you change strategy this year, that is worth mentioning.
Not too many folks can say this. That’s worth the price of admission.
Worth posting for no other reason than after two tops and pointing down – usually means quick downside in the near future. Yellen might be an excuse to quickly sell down some sectors. That said – couldn’t predict what those sectors might be unless/until it starts to happen.
Watching gold this morning. I have next week and January puts so betting on a drop down. Bonds are up 1% while gold is up marginally
OA, first off thank you for all this information. Truly amazing. I’ve been in and out the past couple weeks, and I’m having diffculty following how you are deriving targets (e.g., 400 points $COMPQ and 430 on $RUT) from the charts you’ve been posting. Could you direct me to those posts, or provide a quick explanation? I understand if you can’t or don’t have the time with Boot Camp, but any help is always appreciated.
Are you familiar with how any price target is determined with any price pattern?
No, I’m really not. Technical analysis is definitely not a strength of mine, but I’m trying to learn it to supplement my skills.
Measure the widest part of the pattern.
I did this for you in the diagram. The width is 400 points.
I gotcha, that makes sense. Thank you very much OA for all the help.
max chase would be a mild sell-off at FOMC this afternoon and then gap up and go tomorrow.
check, not quite, check.
Long DHT, FRO, GNRT
Will go long DBA on drop to 19.80s
Thinking about TSLA, as always. Can’t get that girl off my mind…
Exiting GLD on relief rally, though will continue to hold miners.
You mean the market can go down? Shocking.
How about $YELP OA?
Was just talking about that in my trading room. Like the idea a lot here. Easy to manage.
I got a watchlist of about 25 long term setups posted in AfterHours chatroom.
31.7% of stocks are up
26.1% of 1%+ movers are up
29.1% of 4%+ movers are up
Of the stocks that are up, 30.89% are up more than 1%
Of the stocks that are up more than 1%, 14.84% are up more than 4%
Of the stocks that are down, 40.65% are down more than 1%
Of the stocks that are down more than 1%, 12.78% are down more than 4%
We’ll have to watch how this changes post fed meeting. See if there are signs some of the capital is redeployed or not.
OA… in case you didn’t see this…
Did you see it made Bleacher Report? Inside Edition just contacted me. Seriously.
Wear Trading Addicts gear during the interview.
That’s crazy… who will play you in sitcom?
How the hell did they find you?
The term “Fed meeting” hasn’t been searched this often since early 2008.
I’m hoping she mentions more QE if traders can get $PANW to $140 by Christmas. I’d also accept a similar statement on Southern Copper or Gilead.
Raised rates .25 as expected.
Expect to raise rates 3 times in 2017 rather than 2.
Economy is strong, inflation target raised.
Twlo is ready…
postfed reading 1
24.6% of stocks are up
18.15% of 1%+ movers are up
24.6% of 4%+ movers are up
Of the stocks that are up, 35.2% are up more than 1%
Of the stocks that are up more than 1%, 19.4% are up more than 4%
Of the stocks that are down, 51.74% are down more than 1%
Of the stocks that are down more than 1%, 13.18% are down more than 4%
breadth improved next reading except for the % of 1% movers moving >4% while the the indicies made new lows. Nasdaq made higher low.
Positive development, but market will need leadership to develop to turn things around.
Looks like pullback time
Beechoo bottom is in and it’s time to buy if anyone has cash.
Nope. Everyone is tapped out long at the highs. Lol
Everyone, ur welcome. I’ll be here all week
You suffer from premature self-congratulation.
FYI the recording isn’t up in After Hours