Yeah, its that bad. I came into the month looking for any slight reason to lighten up. My thoughts I had laid out were that I felt this month would be the first difficult month we’ve seen since the start of the year. I watched for clues, warning signs, etc. And despite the market staying low and slow, the rotation over the last few weeks just blasted me. 1% move in the $SPX, high beta momo stocks took 10-20% beat downs.
I have a significant number of positions expiring worthless tomorrow. The hard part is that the majority were profitable at one point or another. I froze in the first week of the month, watching as my stocks continued to rip…but then they slowly started to shift.
The good news is that it’s prompted me to build an indicator to try and determine when these shifts are going to occur. The bad news is that it cost me thousands this month to motivate me to start building.
Now I’m sitting here planning my comeback tour. Aside from shelter, butter, guns and burlap…I am trying to piece together a list of 10 stocks I want to take into YE.
I’d like to ask you, the reader, the same question. What are your top stocks you would engage here for year end? (Min 3, Max 10)
Also, After Hours with Option Addict patrons…I am unable to meet after the close today. If I have enough interest, I will happily meet later in the evening if that works for the majority of you. I would plan to meet at 8pm ET. If I can land 10 comments here saying “Yes,” see you then.
Again, sorry for the inconvenience.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
My top picks are stocks above their 10 period weekly EMA. Buy dips with stops below that line.
Currently FANG fits the bill.
Yup I am in for tonight thx jeff
Yes for meeting later tonight… And an even bigger yes for buying up TWLO here in discouragement!
CRI, VFC, KO, MCK, SFLY, TSLA, BIG
WLL, NE, UNT
Hi OA. I recently jumped back in with stock buys of CAE, BGFV, EVA, and EXC. EXC is the one I’m not sure about as it crossed it’s 50/200 day average and in the past, that has not been a good signal. Good luck into the coming last quarter.
Fit,x and rig
No go for tonight. Baseball to watch.
$TGT
$SPWR
$CRM
$WFC
$XON
$URBN
$UBS
$VLO
short $GRUB, and
$TWLO/$FTV (but not both)
But I wouldn’t be expecting summer-like returns out of that portfolio.
Last ER’s shorts look like this quarter’s longs: $HRL, $HSY, but I don’t think I could bring myself to do it.
UAL LULU GS CBS DIS
Best ideas: SBUX, DDD, UAL, and AKS.
I’m already in the first 2, and searching for entry in the latter. I missed the dip in AKS this morning. That one may slip through my fingers at the rate it’s moving…
$CREE earnings hit right in the nuts. Any updated view on that?
View? Great call to play time in $CREE.
Assuming I read that correctly, I thought about playing it short term. I followed you on the LT trade a while back.
I’m worried that we might be out of striking distance for my calls to go ITM by next march, barring a ripping market. LT strike is at 32
Ripping market won’t matter. CREE has zero correlation to the market.
+1
MTCH, TRIP, ILMN, UA, TWTR
and BIDU, to honor the chinese burrito
long GBT
short CAT
I read your headline. Then I saw the picture and just about fell off my chair laughing.
“red room, red room”
gold miners. especially junior’s with high beta to GLD.
I like GFI’s technical set up. I bot in again in the 4.20s.
add FEYE to that list also. so far I think we’re within pennies of the same entry price but lifting some upside vol here makes sense to me.
You don’t think that $GDX is a short here? That looks like the best correlated short out there right now, IMO.
it held major resistance at 23ish which I had marked way back in late March. but that’s true… a dump to 20 is about as equally likely as a move back above 26.2 imo so risk/reward isn’t tilted in favor of upside.
I agree with ChessNWine’s thesis on this being a healthy overdue pullback with a year end rally in the cards.
for now, I like feye best
Looks like $.50 upside for $4.00 of downside.
Gs twlo ibb
Biotechnology already priced in the Clinton win it goes north from here
great on bios
With an admitted negative bias on the market over the next 6 months…
long $JNUG / $NUGT
short $AMBA
short $DIS
short $WYNN
long $TWLO (tight leash)
long $GOOG
long $CMG
That’s good. Am curious on bearish positioning as well.
I normally don’t like going countertrend to the market and/or running positions that may cancel each other out; but this flatline index market seems like he right time to win ok both sides.
Oddly, I feel like almost any of these positions should be flipped hard if wrong…meaning if short isn’t right, then long (vs. flat). Specifically TWLO, CMG, and AMBA.
SBUX
yes i’m in to meet.
longs VMW FSLR GILD
Is there news on $VMW? I looked at that but it looked too quiet.
are you guys playing VMW 26 OCT AMC earnings? It has been awfully quite
yea, its right at that long term trendline. options are cheap
Sbux and fcx are my 2 old man plays into nov exp. Both seem promising. I
I think we can play in solar and materials nearterm. Looking for ideas in there in a week or so once people start getting more comfortable with risk.. and yes 8pm is cool
I watched a few of my profits spin and tumble from inaction. Stops prevented complete humiliation but even small profits feel like losses in these instances.
I’m sitting on my hands until I see something I love. Maybe KANG. LXFT is coiled but refuses to spring.
FB
AMZN
GOOG
NFLX
BABA
JD
WUBA
bios such as
NBIX
SRPT
XON
FOLD
JNUG
Into year end, I like CBI CSOD GWPH CSLT SQ LNG BABA TCEHY CHK P PBF .
I vote YES for tonight but cannot attend live…will gladly watch the replay in the morning (Lightning hockey game tonight). GO BOLTS!
LXU KKR CORT KTOS HIVE VHI AEG CRR QSII
Heres to a run up into year end and happier/bullish posts from OA and Fly. Thx for all that you guys do, throughout day and what seems to be thru the whole night as well!
I got long some VXX short dated calls in hopes of catching a pop on a break to the downside with stocks, but no such luck. The sideways drift has killed this trade. I am thinking of rolling it forward but the pain has me second guessing as I don’t feel like anything will cause vol to rise until after the election of maybe even year end. Prob just let expire worthless and heal my butt hole.
Congrats on DB, by the way…just keeps rolling (no jinx).
I like AMZN and NFLX and GOOG– or any big company that’s in not just the NDX but the S&P 500 also. Lazy person’s investing. One can look through the S&P 500 for the bigger more known companies that everyone has heard about enough, so that they might invest in them. And find the ones whose charts don’t suck.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies
Today’s Moves:
-sold some $DEM to buy a $TWLO starter (shares, $44.68).
-Long April 2017 $TGT calls
-Short November $GRUB puts
UNT,Ati,jo,coh,f,whr,tso,ual,yrcw,nsc
Can’t attend, but I’ll watch for sure.
+1
short UVXY/ TVIX
long WFC, BIIB, YRD, CMG, GILD
Stalking an earnings play in TSLA. Market has me feeling jittery.
FB, BABA, AMZN for year end.
I’m for tonight.
OA you like DDD here?
I don’t.
SKX, WFM, SBUX, UA
Thru the end of the year, $DOW $SBUX $HLX $NOV would like some steel but may be to late for that.
Oil and Tech, take your pick.
Tonight I’m predicting that TWLO busts it’s IPO.
They tried so hard setting up the IPO so that it doesn’t bust, then make unforced errors.
Yup. Shit show in it now.
XNCR – low float bio, has done well all year with a recent hiccup, has a presentation in November. AAPL and BABA but only if earnings confirm they are runners.
Late to the party here. Love $CRM $DIS $SBUX $BVX $LMT $FCX $CHK $BECN $NKE
SBUX MZOR FEYE HCA LULU
The OA cycle lived on. Grind phase will be over tomorrow after the October paper is cleansed and sacrificed to the gods.
Wow. Max pain today for twlo
This is a great article and very on point.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-21/hedge-fund-managers-struggle-to-master-their-miserable-new-world
I am in India right now and I have seen $FIT Blaze ads and billboards in a lot of places. Very popular because Apple Watch is too expensive for this market.
Bought a little BIDU
I like KMI, CRM, FEYE, VMW, YELP (Closer to 30)
For the record, the stock market has annoyed me so much over the past month that I have no desire to participate at all. I am tired of dealing with the churn right now if that is a signal at all.
I also moved my 401K into 90% cash late September – reasoning was I was expecting a choppy October and my only option in the 401K are essentially indexes, so no point in dealing with the volatility expected into the elections. Still holding at this level and don’t have any plans to move it soon, although thinking will put it in large cap primarily to start (quality).
Not to knock your ability to trade in and out of your 401k but that’s a contrarian buy signal if I’ve ever seen one.
I realize that and that is part of the reason why I posted it – it is a much better data point than people’s opinions. However, I will point out a few reasons for my strategy 1) I will likely need to take a loan on this, so moving to cash now makes sense if I am expecting volatility and 2) my investment options are limited to essentially index tracking instruments, so if there is little movement expected in the market and I can’t invest in individual stocks or even sectors, then my upside is limited and I have increased risk from an unexpected downturn – this is driving my decision.
The YELP weekly chart looks like this should be the aversion dip (based on a cycle that started two years ago) . It’s got to stick at 30, though. I was in it (forgot I owned it), and sold the other day. Figured if my theory is that it’s going to 30, I can buy it back when it gets there.
yeah, the aversion is strong in this one.
will try and make session tonight. Am long $BAC $SBUX $BIDU $ANF and $AMZN. Sold off $NFLX longs after the $19% pop. Sold $DB options a bit too fast, needed a winner I guess.
Top pix I like are $SBUX and $BAC. Watching $FIT for retail season rally.
Much if not all short term option value being eroded by inactivity of stock. Further out options like $CRM, not worried about.
Once again, Thank-you Zuck Face
I think CHK will end up being your best pick this month. Might take a few months to hit ur target of 9, but I’m in from ur initial entry until then.
Sorry to put something here that’s off topic, but I am still banned from commenting on Fly’s posts, so I am unable to alert people on the main blog that I have made a new (my 2nd) post in Barry’s Corner. Here it is:
http://ibankcoin.com/barrysbasement/2016/10/21/globalization-jobs-and-wages-about-time-we-focused-on-issues/
This picture made me laugh out loud – my three picks are related to HRC landslide victory – $SWHC, $RGR and $TASR
Thank you for trying to keep this site sane.
Anyone like YELP this week?
A whole lot of SBUX up in here.
GWPH, SQ, NE
Still can’t find any great set-ups here for my style of trading. Riding recent BIDU pick and like YRD. FOSL interesting here but can’t get excited about it. SPLK might be tempting shortly.
Are most people holding $TWTR through earnings?
I’m under water so I’m holding.
Sold off 1/2 YRD and bought TSLA Nov 190 calls
$ILMN (monster biotech, best of a strange breed)
$NOW (in the space to get a boost from a CRM move)
$GOOG (it’s google ffs)
And Bitcoin to the moon!