If you followed me on this trade, tell me you didn’t feel like this yesterday…assuming you didn’t let the noise get to you, and get out of a great trade:
This is precisely why I chose this stock on this week. You knew it would be actively discussed, and I felt that this week was that inflection point in sentiment. I was right. My analysis was confirmed when I saw this:
I’ve watched this stock trade now for many months without taking a trade. In some circles, it’s become a market indicator at times. That right there automatically perks my interest. I was validated when I saw the push back in the comments.
My mind is conditioned to find patterns. At the beginning of the week, $DB triggered the most bearish pattern I’ve ever seen. Or at least, it triggered what the crowd has told me, was the most bearish price action they’ve ever seen.
We started the week with a big gap down under a known level of support and sold off into the close. Very bearish. Tuesday, we saw prices open slightly lower and rally a bit at the open. After pushing higher for the first half hour, prices sold off. That’s the move I bought.
In the context of an important gap down, any failed strength the following day is as bearish as is gets in the minds of most traders. Reminded me of Grey Monday, August 24th 2015. Same sequence. The failed rally on the 25th triggered the most bearish poll result I have ever seen. That was something I won’t ever forget, and still reference it often.
Yesterday, $DB was painted across the news, twitter, blogs, chat rooms…everywhere. They expressed their point. They were bearish! And as a result, they got interested, DOWN HERE, as seen below.
Perfect! This means that I was right in the fact that everyone would be engaged in this stock.
At yesterday’s close, the put/call ratio in $DB was 4.3. In other words, everyone ran to one side of the boat.
Not declaring victory yet, but as you’ve seen me work…I try hard to find these inflection points in sentiment. Why “roll the dice” on $DB? Only because it was at the forefront of sentiment this week.
My calls absorbed yesterday’s decline well and was never down in this position. Despite the push back from some readers, I felt there was something very intelligent about this trade that wasn’t respected.
Hence my write up.
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YAY!!!
hi five!
anyone?
anyone?
no one.
great call my man
AND THE CROWD…..
murmurs.
Turns out that “Divergence Convergence” nailed this move right along side you OA. Did you get the tip from him or the other way around?
Haha Just bustin balls. Divergence totally tried to ride your wave….claiming a win after the verdict was already in. Congrats on the big win man
Who’s that?
One of the peanut Gallery guys “Garbacz” AKA “Divergence Convergence”. He wrote a post saying he called it……but he posted it today… after the DB settlement announcement and after DB was already up double digits. No mention of DB in his prior posts. I assume he was hoping that in a few days people wont put the timing together and assume that he nailed a pivotal call ala OA.
Ah, got ya. I threw up an “OA Buy” post right after I bought. Pull first, explain later approach. Time stamps ftw…lol.
Ya, I know you called it before. I was just bustin balls cuz Garbecz is trying to pull and after the fact win based off your call.
I read that comment you left, lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu5JdmsLWVk
Kudos for acting on the courage of your conviction whether or not it ultimately proves to be a winner.
This is a nice counterpoint to Flys post quoting Gundlach, that $DB is a hands off trade because the company is currently ‘unanalyzable’. He’s right, but while you can’t analyze the company, you can absolutely analyze the human response to it. Its taken me a while, but i am coming to believe that the human response is mostly all that matters.
That was the only point I was trying to make. Very, very well said.
Damn, well played.
I joined you and want to say thanks for the heads up and the education as to why after.
Another sick call
Getting into UVXY big time a the day progresses. Adding about 25% every hour from here till 3:30. Market should continue to run up all day long until 3:30 or so. Not sure what happens at that point.
Why?
Sethster said this in Fly’s blog, when someone asked him this there:
“There is another swoon in store, we have not been able to get up to the last high. End of the quarter, $DB in major trouble. Market squeezing all day slowly. Makes me think it’s a blow-off top.”
Personally I don’t think of something as a blow off top when it just barely goes beyond taking back yesterday’s losses.
Also, DB doesn’t appear to be in major trouble any more.
Holding UVXY over the weekend after a day like today is an outrageously wild call. Hope he got out.
Didn’t got out. Bought my last portion at 3:50. Fully locked and loaded now.
OA this move in DB is faster then expected. Im out to NOV but do you take some here or hold?
Sounds like a good problem to have.
That was an amazing pickup OA. Only issue with knife catching using options is the spread. Gotta be careful not to chase, and may miss the trade all together.
It wasn’t a knife catch. The stock moved rather slowly.
Why?
Do all your comments consist of the word Why, Soros? If so, why?
Meant to ask sethster about his UVXY plan. Did not mean to reply to this comment
Oh, I see. Just joking anyway. No harm intended. I I see your comment about Sethster’s UVXY call above, so I see that you do make substantive comments.
Asking me why I’m holding over the weekend? I believe there is another leg lower coming next week. I picked up UVXY on Friday because it didn’t go down even as the market was going up all day long.
UVXY tends to pop after several days of flat trading. It’s been hovering just over 16 for the last 7 trading days. Another thing about UVXY is that when it comes down almost as quickly as it rises, there tends to be another pop.
Add to that the steep sell-off at the close, and I am happy with my position. This will be a buy and hold at this point, until the market takes it’s next leg lower.
killer trade
Followed you here on this trade. Stock god is alive and well. Only wish I went options instead of stock
The stock whisperer strikes again
Hall of Fame material…great call…thanks for the $$, OA.
Beautiful play, OA. I wish I could borrow your balls. All those shorts loaded to the gills in put options must be feeling tense right about now.
I will say it again…$OA has the best market/stock analytics I have seen in 20 years
I was going to say few, but after thinking about it for a while, I can’t think of any other traders that can gauge sentiment as well as you, Jeff. I find it utterly fascinating how “crowd commenters” can indicate the best buy points for beaten up stocks. Call it the “Bichu Factor.” That’s something I’m now looking at, thanks to you and AHWOA. Hat tip.
Lost in this is the AMBA buy a couple days ago. Nice squeeze going on here too.
got in AMBA DB & ADRO with him… thinking about taking some of the profits from the latter two and add to ADRO down here…
Hail OA, master of the other side of the boat!
Picked up some AAPL 114s today for a yolo at .02
Can we get a Friday pop for twlo???
Twlo is toast!!
(Please mark the bottom!!)
Sucks that you’ve turned a great indicator into shit.
Was fun while it lasted.
Couldn’t let you guys have all the fun
I sniffed out the attempted reverse jinx, and should have sold.
Yah I was hoping for gap and go day and didn’t happen.
Once the put trades are in, do MM’s for DB move the stock higher to try to offload the puts they sold?
Curious how the process of making markets work. I suspect that MM’s need to offload their risk to avoid blowing up.
I don’t make markets…if that was directed to me.
Not directed at you. Was wondering if you or anybody on the thread had knowledge on how MMs for DB try to hedge all that long risk they take.
Can they spot moments where they can push the stock higher to offload some of that risk to shorts who are covering.
That’s a lot of stock they’d have to trade.
Jeff, seriously man I know your in probably mostly doing this to get people to your paid services and possible future endeavors, but THANK YOU for the incredible generosity you show hear with picks and educational posts. It’s just so amusing that some want to be the one’s to say they know better than you, or think your brazenness is insulting. You are truly a good man. Wish I could fit After Hours back into my schedule.
“Baby, I only hit you because I love you”?
Huh?
Perhaps some commenters here are on drugs, LOL. You never know what people are like, when you only interact with them through the Internet.
No, not on drugs. But you and some of the other posters here nauseate me with your ass-kissing. Jeff is very good at what he does …probably because he works harder than most of us. So why not just mail him your panties and try working on trading instead of pom pom fluttering.
Each to their own way of acting. I personally don’t think it’s a bad thing to express gratitude toward Jeff.
OA, yet again, tremendous call and congrats. I have a general question relating to when you believe a battered stock is set up for a good trade vs. it being toxic and staying away from it. Of course, sentiment needs to be extremely one sided, but why make the trade here in $DB but not in other falling stocks? Is it related to the price patterns, speed of the moves, or a combination of those and more? Thanks so much for help in advance.
Which stock was in the headlines?
I read this yesterday and smiled. OA .. You schooled the crowd. No position. But I would have been with losers. Obviously the crowd rarely wins. The pros know better.
Good for you .
When I saw the put call ratio yesterday I had to do a double-take. Sheep headed to the slaughter.
In other news, out here in oil country we’re seeing a lot of optimism bubbling up. Whenever we get the third OPEC production cut it seems to be a signal that oil is ready to roar back to life.
HES + 14.5% since my post.
I’m loading the cart on burritos here. Thoughts?
Any time I notice a group where all charts look identical, its usually predictive of movement. Especially in a non-correlated environment.
Does FIT look extra tasty here? Just picked a little. More on the shopping list. 14.98
I bought some yesterday. Thought the spot was good enough.
More @ 14.915
Can go once more,sitting on hands for now.
I like the fact that it didn’t fall through support @ 14.70 even on big down volume but it isn’t moving up on a big up day. I think it’s a coin toss on direction here. I’m waiting one more day to see what happens. Think I can pick it up cheaper.
Chinese Burritos:
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=212&f=geo_china&o=-marketcap&t=SFUN,CCCR,BZUN,CMCM,WUBA
$WB, $JD, $JMEI, $SINA…all looking the same.
I am literally batting 0.000 on Burrito trades. I do like the look of $JD but I don’t want to step in and be the cooler.
This has that “fish to barrel” feel here. I don’t say that about most things.
Got long RENN earlier …like JMEI right here.
RENN indicator!
Mine’s still #butt$PLUG
It’s close to “popping” as well.
Awesome move OA!
Is $YY still a buy here?
Still?
YY looked great yesterday and is still buyable today me thinks
FYI…..YY has bounced off 5-year declining trend line multiple times in the last two weeks. Just something to consider.
Watch as it’s peers break that resistance one by one.
Got my faced punched in on $TWLO expiry here. Got out of my $60’s for $5. Felt like a colossal ass when I did, considering I could have escaped in the $8-9 range this morning, but I feel better now. Rolled some into $JD. Keeping some extra cash laying around.
A 1.9% move in $WBA on a 1 minute chart looks like 10% on the rest of my charts!
Short HZNP
RENN is breaking out of a big base on over 3 times average volume. Pocket until 3 from 2.
No position in DB. Jeff strikes again. Finding these for yourself some day is just another reason to join AHWOA.
Google wants some Twitter. Yeah baby!
congrats,
very well done and played,……
ThomasJefferson
September 30, 2016 at 11:17 am
This is a nice counterpoint to Flys post quoting Gundlach, that $DB is a hands off trade because the company is currently ‘unanalyzable’. He’s right, but while you can’t analyze the company, you can absolutely analyze the human response to it. Its taken me a while, but i am coming to believe that the human response is mostly all that matters.
Option Addict
September 30, 2016 at 11:19 am
That was the only point I was trying to make. Very, very well said.
i understand your point,…..
I don’t play cards. I read situations. Pretty fucking good at it.
Where we eating?
i’m learning more and more about the human nature & situational aspect of trading. You are obviously very good at what you do, as am I, and i never disputed that fact. That why i read and follow you, Professor Fly, RC, raul, and the iBC site. I was just surprised that you were playing with DB.
I just have a longer time frame, I’m more of an investor, and not much of a day trader or a trader at all, i.e. i don’t like playing with dogshit & garbage. That being said, you have clearly proven money can be made doing just that, but its far beyond my risk tolerance.
are you in NY area ?
can i ask if it isn’t too personal, what was your take on the DB trade ?
I am not a day trader either. Most of the stuff I hold for weeks to months.
I only traded that stock, because I wanted to get in front of everyone else. Been watching it for months. Saw my pitch, took a swing.
I think this may be a short, but only above $15. I think there’s another good chance to buy at $12.50.
OA – … what does this imply… buy or sell $NLFX and buy or sell $BABA, now that FANG term is dead and FAAA has now been anointed as a new acronym?…
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/27/jim-cramer-renames-fang-as-faaa-your-key-to-long-term-growth.html
It implies that even the most sophisticated minds won’t decipher James Cramer.
Long ATHM at here at 25. Aversion within a larger aversion?
I thought so. Bought this on Friday as well.
Picked up some $VIPS calls here.
Loaded CRM puts a little bit ago
Anticipate that a print of upper-69’s here in the next few days will go to the idea that the massive volume consolidation around 70 was not smart money buying before the next move higher but rather smart money distributing before the next leg lower.
And it would go to the idea that big money is sick of its strategy of “buying others in order to grow.”
Down here? Man, be careful.
Sold TSLA. I’m declaring victory and running.
Awesome. I had a few ask the same thing. Sell the pop. That type of sentiment is good for higher prices.
I am your right-hand pig, OA.