Last weeks poll was a great tell about the environment out there. Even if you are/were bullish, many were heavy cash going into the Fed. The reaction you saw was fast, which provoked you to chase the market up into the weekend.
We start off the week with a gap. I love when this happens, because that is usually what activates a pain trade sequence.
My thoughts here are that those that chased the market up late last week are probably not feeling as great about this, and are potentially being stopped out or taking things off into this move lower. More importantly, this is forcing shorts to initiate lower…just like the last few times we did this.
This gap down happens to be a retest of last weeks balance in the indices, which is the retest one should buy. With as quiet as it is out there, not sure if this read is most accurate, but that’s what I am thinking. I don’t see bulls out there cheer leading this dip. In fact, those that are shopping seem cautious. Bears are most vocal here from what I can tell, and that’s always a layup.
Stalking $ADRO, $GME, $SOHU and $VMW today.
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Bot WYNN 100.38, AMT 112.44, LB 71.73.
Prices might be a little off. All bot between 10:30 & 12
grabbed some QQQ 30SEP 118 C at early open bottom. Hope to close out near close of trading.
Why close it down here?
Fear 🙂 only 4 days till expiry and was hoping to catch the bounce today. You think I should let it breathe a day or two?
That’s where the best moves have been. Not measured open to close, but middle to middle.
I appreciate that. I read all your stuff and love IBC. Strictly small time hack but love the markets. You have absolutely slayed it this year. Thanks for all your doing here.
“Best moves are middle to middle.” A quote for the ages, here. Thanks, Jeff.
DIS for TWTR chatter.. apparently DIS shareholders not happy
Even the biggest Bears I know think we will bounce at 2140, which isn’t too far from here
I think we trade under that in October, but not yet IMO.
Small bio $CASC breaking out here
Any thoughts on today’s action in FIT? Selling was muted at first, then got sharp. You’ve said to watch out for the volume pocket getting “refilled” by a downward move after a breakout.
Does the action today look like that? My greedier half wants to wait and see if it’ll soft-land at the 200dma and start a new leg higher.
Looks like the same action it does over and over and over again. Change your chart to an hourly. Focus on the patterns you can identify there.
QQQ Sep 30 115 calls @ 2.63. Looking for 1-2 day bounce
sure is quiet here today.
This is setting up for a “mini-crash” in October which becomes the biggest bear trap of all time, imo.
That comes from your twitter friend, right?
Sounds like someone wants to vector into the market.
Guys, I’m fully invested, my only bias is up. I just think a bear trap is setting up. Over the last 6 years its been one “top” after the other before we continue marching higher.
Scariest shit I’ve read this year dude.
Not at the computer today but what happened to ADRO? Thought I got a decent entry last week but today not so much.
Bought YY oct and nov calls
Traded back to support.
Thanks. What triggered the correction?
8% is Hefty for one day. Still like the chart
Picked up a nice chunk of JNUG in after hours. Looking for some fireworks post debate.
Got out of TSLA calls around break even this morning – still have CMG call position and got SPY puts AM. This week tends to be around the time the market is weakest during the year – at least around this time it has been very weak the past 5 years. That said – the bunch of CRM puts that expired this week that I got early last week – per my posts – sold those for great gains this past Friday so that play came earlier than I thought. Figuring the pain trade the rest of the week might be the market burning those who try to play calls trying to time a bounce. CMG and a few others – which sometimes do the opposite of the SPY and other well-known stocks – might be the exception.
And I should add – I think the market in the short-term wil have little to do with the Presidential debate – although talking heads will love to mention it. Rather it probably will have to do with the location of a market that just went up on fumes following the fed decision a few trading sessions ago and has very few catalysts to take it higher except a strong sell environment to get weak holders out and bring in strong buyers.
The rumors say that if the media pronounces Hill the winner, market goes up tomorrow. If Trump, it slides more. We’ll know soon enough.
“We’ll know”
Good luck comparing the imaginary market where the opposite result happened.
You can’t declare “If the media said the opposite the market wouldn’t be up” or “If the media had said the opposite, the market would be up even more” with any sort of reason…
Not to mention that different media outlets won’t even agree.
We do know today that the “Hill wins, market up”, part of the prediction turned out to be correct, at least so far today. If anyone bought the early flat futures on that prediction, it worked for them.
picked up some DIS calls and sold some put spreads at the lows today.
Mainly because Mr Kass was slathering all over himself today over at the street for such a great call.
No fill on SHLD calls- tough spreads. More Kass- he is calling for bk for Sears.
Is this still a fade Kass establishment?
I couldnt get into the AHWOA webinar today because it kept saying the password was incorrect. Don’t know if that affected turnout and the poll.
Kass is the answer to a jeopardy question of who is the worst name-recognized trader of the 21st Century. Each month he has his horrible calls that would have the potential to bring agony to others if anyone actually followed him. This past month he was short AAPL big before it popped and he shorted the market again and again as it went up the past few weeks. He has done the latter every month since March 2009 – shorting into any strength each month.
On the subject – and I believe this can be seen on his twitter feed – Kass got out of CMG for a loss around 400 a few days ago. In other words, get ready for the Burrito to fly. I got calls around that time but I was unaware until later that Kass had bailed and was glad to hear the good news.
Bot QRVO, added JUNO. Like ASGN, STMP, POL, SYNA
Crazy reversal in WBMD..
Wanted flat open. Got flat open. Tried getting my QQQ weeklies in for .43, which was mid bid. by the time it loaded through my 4G at the side of the road, up up and away. Oh well. Hope a few of you guys got a piece.
Flat opens make me nervous. Skeptical.
Interesting. So far you are on point. I’m playing a retrace and if we touch back down I may give it a swing. Not much further to go
Seems to be RUT/IWM lagging and potentially pulling down other indices. Want to see it start to recover soon.