Scariest 7 point drop in the S&P this year by far, right?
Watching this $IBB move. Got a good reaction at balance. Once the indices and individual groups start breaking these levels, the worry meter upticks, IMO.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts
Mylan has everybody pissed again with the Epipen. Bad press. Those aren’t optional.
I have a niece that has to have one. I’m supposed to keep one on hand for my youngest as well, though he’s not as much of a threat.
We need to have one around for my daughter too. What kind of dumb fucks would raise prices like that in the current environment?
MYL taking it in the shorts – I think this is one of those cross-cutting issues that everyone gets – profiting off a wheezing, blotchy kid isn’t the way to give you a positive image.
The 10%+ move in LABU in 90 minutes has a a bit more effect on me than just simply “getting back to balance.” Oh well, time will tell…
I’ve been holding this all year. I might be less anxious here.
Love it here, but not enough to go over my position size. Kinda like having another piece of pie
“Looks great, but I better not.”
Looks to me like the max upside, or at least strong resistance, can be found right around ES 2230. Maybe we take some time to drift higher and touch that before correcting, but maybe not. Bought some SPY puts an hour ago, Oct expiry.
Don’t you think this copper breakdown is bad news?
Breakdown? What was broken?
Broke down below the 200 DMA, broke down below July lows, continuing series of lower highs.
Look at FCX. Broke down below $11.50-$11.60 support.
I am looking at $FCX. It’s traded at these prices for 6 months.
Same with Copper.
FCX is down 7% today. That’s not a concern?
Concern to who? Me? Why in the fuck am I blogging about biotech and the market and we’re talking about $FCX?
$FCX trading to support sinks the market?
I thought you bought FCX?
I do. Should we shit our dockers together? I bought not far from these prices. Again, trying to figure out how $FCX is relevant…
shit our dockers…..classic
Biotech’s a crowded trade – people hiding their money in a sector they think isn’t sensitive to Oil & Interest Rates.
they might be right, but it’s also one of the most fundamentally poor sectors riddled with broken business models, shrinking margins, and no profits
long LABD
What price?
The Million Dollar question.
I like to bookmark players.
I have nothing to celebrate yet because I’m net net flat on this move lol. But I’m in it for the 3 month trade down to the lower $50’s
That’s what I wanted to make sure of. No gain or loss into this move. So where does a move up hurt the most? Have to get out of the range?
Well… long story short I was almost stopped out by this morning’s idiocy.
But the move down is the pain-trade by proxy of people already crowding into IBB/XBI for the “perceived” safe play.
Without the 2 random buyout announcements IBB would have broke down below $190 earlier this week.
“Without the 2 random buyout announcements IBB would have broke down below $190 earlier this week.”
So happy you mentioned this, as it is so important to what it suggests about the environment. Had these events not happened, I’d be worried you are right about where these stocks are headed. How many M&A events have happened here in the last few months?
Several. That’s certainly a catalyst that hurts my thesis.
That’s a huge catalyst behind mine. But the only longs under pressure are the late ones. Shorts seem easier to disarm here, but we’ll see. Compelling trade anatomy here.
When Noni bails, you’re in trouble, lol.
As a long time biotech employee I can tell you that we do great when the economy sucks and lousy when it rips. And it follows a cycle, and no, not the mumbo-jumbo wave theory horseshit.
And Pipelines are like the network company that swears by The Cloud, and inserting a paragraph about The Cloud on their website even though The Cloud is meaningless, invisible ether.
But VC’s like pipelines and clouds. It gives them an opportunity to invest early, pump the stock and dump soon after IPO when the minions are locked in.
It’s a horrible sector to invest in but what the hell do I know.
From what you say, it sounds better to trade than to invest in, most of the time.
Bought last lot of FCX. Told myself I would buy on break of recent lows so gotta follow through with plan.
Thanks for the support bchu
for reference, comments from 2 Aug –
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2016/08/02/im-feel-im-being-set-up/
OA – I noticed Amag has a similar pattern to wfm. In general do you think this is a good pattern? If so, Is the goal to just buy as close to the bottom of the range as possible?
Thanks
Totally different, IMO. Distinct and important differences with highs/lows.
What time are your charts above?
30 min
One month, 30 min.. thanks.
One the one year PEIX chart; Anyone view this as a handle on a Cup handle formation?
Or just a failed breakout here?
Not seeing that in $PEIX.
Looking at $NMBL. Crazy action and I’m trying to digest it. Where I’m ending up is to treat the ER like a Fed Day. As long as price stays above pre-earnings levels (drawing with a crayon, I’d say that balance is $8.65-8.80), I’m okay. If it breaks below pre-earnings levels, I’ll consider taking profits. Is there a better way to read this?
How do you feel about $BLUE now OA? Add to? or ride this shit out?
Thanks.
Something up with MNTA … buyers rushed in on the bio-dip
Did you see NYMX today ? Wtf ?
I’ve been gone today, was there a catalyst for the bio sell off, i.e. News besides the Mylan bitch?
Clinton seems to be the catalyst – third time she has caused a sell-off in biotech – Yellen did it back in 2014 when she lumped biotechs and social media stocks in with Stan and Hitler
Satan not stan….
I sell anything associated with Stan. Hate that guy.
Disturbing that you’re so familiar that you call him by his first name.
I’m voting for trump now. We are testing the range in biotech again. I’m
Still way long even with that bitch wiping out my gains today from my $LABU position.
Because if Trump wins all your holdings will rocket up?
Therein lies a problem.
Haha, just venting a little. I’m
A Paul Ryan guy, not another baby boomer in the White House.
I still think we test $340 on $IBB regardless of Hillary and her twitter musings.
Shit. You’re confident here?
I could have easily capitulated today but didn’t. It was such a nice morning too.
Sure, but don’t act like you didn’t shit your pants too. We need emotional outbursts from our emotional trader camp.
Bchu’s colon exploded over $FCX today. He’s great because he doesn’t care to hide it. Walks though halls, shitty dockers and all.
haha, of course I shit my pants. I made a comment in your previous blog post. I saw a 17% turn around in a position I’m balls deep in, five figures position too. I was at someone else’s office today and was only able to check in periodically via my phone.
Are you thinking more pain in bio for the shore term?
Did you see my reply? I saw you.
Felt this was appropriate with the docker shitting through the halls.
http://media3.giphy.com/media/aEDT18dqZ9rRS/giphy.gif
Mmmmkkaaayyyy….lol
Non-thinkers classify people by the generation to which they happen to be born.
Actually purdy, my position had more to do with the $19T in debt your generation is leaving the next generations, the illigitimate Iraq invasion that has destroyed our FP credibility, the thousands of innocent civilians that have died from the “war on terror” which no one takes responsibility for regardless of intention, our shitty school system, our shitty infrastructure, dare I go on?
And now there will be another in the White House? Not looking forward to it.
Of course. That’s the religion of politics. People believe that everything will change into roses, if only their preferred candidate wins. And everything will be far worse if the other one wins, because the other one is Lucifer, LOL– which that candidate certainly would be, if every conspiracy theory about them on the web were true.
Question directed to MSGT Hartmann. I’ve noticed that whenever you post a comment it is usually very clear, well thought out and unequivocal. Others do the same, but I notice yours more often. What are you seeing in the next few months? What sectors are you investing in and which are you avoiding? Thoughts on oils and gold here? In your opinion is the pain trade higher? You mentioned liking China.
Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
Possibly just an IBB retest. Last year when this Hilary event happened IBB got smashed for a few days 9/21. How do you think (if it does) play out differently this time? Market at all time highs so I would think different sentiment than last year around this time
My opinion is you had a clear top then, and a clear bottom now. Sentiment wise, biotech isn’t the same to people as it was then.
While I think this constant political drumbeat will put a cap on valuations for mature drug companies, I think that cap is above current levels. Bigger bio-pharma companies likely realize the pricing game is over…and will perhaps search more vigorously for true drug growth opportunities via acquisition.
I couldn’t care less about copper and oil prices. I pick stocks.
+1
Pursuing the fear theme OA–what did you make of the precipitous drop in NUGT today?
Silver called it yesterday. Gold always reluctant to break with Silver at first, then catches up quickly.
OA, what is your take on FB here? Using 122 as a soft stop? U agree?
Honestly? Which crowd do you think is looking at $FB here?
I think they are Barron’s cover saying $140? Is that right?
They also were on Barron’s in 2012 in the $20’s.
Do you see a bounce or more pain? Taking into the equation it is splitting tomorrow? TIA
Why?
Haha. You realize the bchu who spoke about fcx was bchu22, not me right??
C’mon, let’s get it together
The guy responsible goes through great lengths to be able to post here. It’s the funniest shit ever. One day I might blog about it.
That’s why in some ways I wish everyone had an avatar, but on the other hand it’s so obvious when these guys are fake posting its a great signal
I am thinking of picking some up tomorrow–this drop to me seems overdone–thx for your responses
Wait, so that trend completely blew the fuck up today, and you want to buy? Gold looks good to you here? Stocks like $CDE don’t make you think you’re on the right hand side of the slope now?
Ran for cover this morning on NUGT, GLD.
Chart surfing came across OPTT, 1 yr chart.
Riveted. I’m riveted.
Thoughts
The folks in the AHWOA poll are disciples. They are with you dog. That forgives the wack-ass results in the last couple of weeks.
“It’s sucks but it’s not broken.”
Regarding all these comment I can feel way more anxiety here now. Could this have been a move within trend? How many days until we find out? Also, regarding the Bchu’s, do you want more emotion from us? I think most of us are just trying to “Be like Mike,” homie.
It sucks fat dick because it takes a week’s worth of gains in a position and blows them the fuck out while you are taking a dump after lunch though…..
Noni – if you get this please describe who you are??
Whack ass results? Poll results?
Poll results are too bullish put a poll up for the public
I might not be decoding your post correctly. These polls have been pretty amazing lately. 4 bearish polls on and following the market to ATHs. First bull poll, topped and flat. Poll goes bearish on bear trap day.
I’ve enjoyed them.
Wasn’t the 80% bull poll on 8/1?
The one I’m thinking about was August 5th
In any event, what’s the bottom line? These poll results suck? Not useful to you?
Haha, what do you want to know? I swing trade stocks and etfs on the side and come here to learn about technical analysis from OA and others when I can outside of my day job. I have a big fat $LABU position which was a “fat” winner twice but I didn’t sell because I expect $IBB to test $340. Now, $LABU is testing the range for a 2nd time in two or so weeks. I didn’t sell today. We will see.
Noni, where are you long from?
Averaged in around $35. I wasn’t paying attention and didn’t get in sooner like you did.
Long from the middle. No stop right?
Fascinating.
I know, stupid not having a trailing stop and missing strong gains twice now. I really thought the last retest holding would lead us through.
No after reading your thoughts maybe the polls just get to me too much. I’m always watching the recording late so I never get to vote and that pisses me off. You’ve been so right on with your analysis so far. I think the AHWOA crowd is used to given back 2% to gain 3-5%.
The poll issue is only part of my comment from above…
Fwiw, people who have an extra hour after the close have to sign up with OA. The amount you’ll gain from the compact analysis is crazy worth it.
Risk 2% to make 5%…not sure that’s accurate.
I’m still trading stocks….
Even still, I’m not sure that’s a fair assessment to the philosophy overall. True, could have been a shitty day, but not what happens in general. Hop on live sometime and let’s discuss.
So OA –be bullish when most are bearish–but when it comes to gold forget that rule? Anyway Thanks for taking the time to respond.
You took this out of context.
Don’t chase trends. How often do I buy a collapse in a 9 month old trend?
How long have you been playing this?
Know when to stop buying dips, and when to start selling rallies. I teach that here.
Dips that was a fing shellacking–and I know on the teaching part thats why I am signed up for the boot camp
You can dig up on positioning in these, which is the reason they were blown out. Everyone bullish. Sell rallies.
Shorted NFLX in PM…96.4
Strong conviction?
Great spot.
Not sure how much gas NFLX has left in the tank. 60% conviciton.
I love entries outside of prior day range.
Short breakouts, in other words?
97+ is technically a multi-week breakout — this entry is selling into what I perceive to be a bull trap / upgrade.
Giving this trade a little wiggle room — they could take the stock 97+ then fade the crap out of it. Should have waited for the breakout to sell —
Aside from making my broker a ton of money yesterday, I rolled out to AMAT Oct 32 calls, scratched out of VRX puts after OA”s balance post and put some money back into my bank account. Going to run the account on auto-pilot for the next few weeks.
Here’s where the NFLX faders (97.25) should get started if this is a BS move.
I had been staking NFLX for a long – yesterday was the day to get in (but I didn’t)..I see your thesis though
Bulls and profits they fade, fade away
Bulls and profits they fade, away
Bulls and profits they fade, fade away
Bulls and profits they fade………………
Back into premarket range (96.6 top) = 75% conviction.
Feels like my TWTR long call back in the upper 13’s