I’m obsessed with this $TWLO idea. The last time I obsessed over an IPO was $BABA. Remember that? I said that it’s IPO would follow the $TWTR IPO. Again, this was BEFORE it ran from $80 to $120.
Then there’s $TWTR. My highest conviction trade idea ever. I laid out the bullish case for taking a major stake in this just a couple weeks after IPO, on November 18th to be specific.
Here’s how that played out…
Here’s a look at $BABA, and the similarities to the $TWTR IPO. I made that call in mid October, a week or so in front of a 50% increase in less than a month:
Then there’s $TWLO. I said a little over a month ago that this stock might be the next $TWTR IPO. How does it compare thus far?
$TWLO had a good first week. The others didn’t. It traded flat for a few weeks like the others did, then made a solid week and a half run, like the others did.
After that run, all three stocks paused/pulled back for three days. The fourth day, they started the melt-up run. Big volume on the rallies, weak volume on the declines.
Guess I’ll know tomorrow.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Think aug60 calls will have value tomm?
No. The 46’s will.
What do you think makes people want to climb over each other and chase these stocks up, only for them to get sold down hard for the next year?
Last blog…$ACIA. It’s FOMO. The unwashed get so fixed on the whole “WOW, OMG!!!” They lose sight of risk management, some common sense, etc. They don’t realize that these stocks are being pushed to transfer the shares from strong hands to the weaker ones.
Never been bit by this before? Shit, I chased stuff all the time in 99-00 when I was only a couple years into trading.
I’ve been bit before for sure. Highway robbery.
But I understand what you’re saying. If it gets pushed up a little in the next couple of days people will just have to own some… and then they’ll be left holding a bag of dicks for two years.
Long here but assuming more pain ahead after the slight poleaxing today with some profit taking and stops kicking in. Prob going to hear much gnashing of teeth about the multiple, the same “overvalued” call you mentioned on twtr. I like the story here – we’ll see. Appreciate your conversations and insights on these guys.
If we get that blow off top to the 70’s, would you consider shorting it? Both BABA, TWTR had multi mo declines afterwards
$TWTR wasn’t an easy short. I won’t, but if you find your set-up, have at it.
So if we open flat or slightly red what strike would you get for SEPT? Thanks boss. #missedtheTWLOfunandwantin
Well I guess I’ll have to get back in. I followed your original call and bought the August 43’s. However since I put to much money in and the drop days later made me to uncomfortable. I got caught up thinking of how much I’d make and not about how much I could lose. My $2.65/call quickly traded down about 50% and I got out around stock price 39 I’d say. just let my emotions rule the trade. Of course I then watched as those same calls traded up to around the $20/call average. lesson learned, proper capital allocation and trade size management. Ouch.
Wait, you lost money on this move?
yep, I had set a stop at the recent lows which was around 40 ish. I work nights and sleep most days so I set stops. albeit not always in the right places. looking back I see it just ran back to its previous breakout.
This has happened to everybody if they’ve been around long enough. Even the very best ideas will be money losers if sized too large.
Whats a Twilio? And I ask this after a google search…
Cramer still seems to be pumping this and Vonage.
VG? wtf
Oil is paying big time. This is the spot for copper I’m long here 2.167 stop at 2.130
RH is up after hours. I took some Nov 35 calls a couple days ago.
A sharp break in Gold tonight might tipoff a monster Friday rally…lots of guys betting SPX closes under 2200 tomorrow.
Hopefully this is the breakdown that finally sticks… my $JDST would appreciate it!!! Haha
This is a $30 stock. You’d be sorry trying to buy it here.
Tencent +5.18% today
Single best idea…
Ticker? Couldn’t find it before
Sentiment intriguing, I’m a buyer.
Ok call me Blue Star, Bchu, brother n law or another contrarian indicator but I initiated new positions in SPY puts today in W 23 strike 211 @ 1.25
Week 4 or 30th strike 210 @ 1.34
VIX calls Oct 19 20 calls @ 1.35
And SPY Dec 220 puts at 7.85
Glta
Lol. Why would I call you anything? You fit the role of every other trader this year. No need to isolate a name, you are now “they.” Not a contrarian. I was the contrarian this year.
Just throwing my bets out
If they don’t work can I get a loan )
Contrarian to what though? Do you read this site? Contrarian to me? Am I on the other side of your VIX or SPY?
No man nothing meant towards you….just the masses
Bro, who’s the masses? I’m the ONLY person on this site trading stocks.
Grab a seat on the ark dude. Just be careful labeling yourself contrarian, or blasting that in my comments at me like I’m on the other side of your trade. I don’t belong in this conversation.
Like I said man, nothing directed towards you (your an awesome trader) I’m just saying my thoughts and that is the market has stayed up for too long and is due a pull back and just posted my bets….I’m most likely going to be kicked in the face….
Just say you bought puts then. Don’t ask me to address you as something you’re not. You’re just another trader in a crowded trade.
Yes sir
Oh and a Oct Vix 20 call at 1.35
$wnc is silent. Goodness it looks nice. I am already heavy energy/transports ($kmi/$yrcw/$eca plus lots of shares), but maybe there’s room for more boring on my book
I’m in too. Tranies next week
OA – Great after hours session tonight. The trading psychology based sessions are always helpful. If you miss a setup here and there, there will always be another… but a trader/investors psyche is irreplaceable and a lot harder to recover. (I’m definitely well versed in the recovering side of it…) Thanks.
Thanks my man. Had to shake it up a bit tonight. Good to have this conversation often, as many don’t stop to determine if their approach is appropriate based on their own strengths/weaknesses. Easy to make adjustments, but some don’t even realize that those little tweaks have a major impact on the success/failure of a system.
The mental game is most important though, I agree.
+1 this is the shit right here. This and the set ups, lol. (still watching, btw)
Also I feel compelled to say that fools who ain’t on board need to get a little tighter with The Option Addict.
OA – great call for weeks and weeks to ignore all the indexes and focus on the hot stocks – two of the hottest being ACIA and TWLO. Arguably – what kept people out of them was over thinking – specifically – “it already ran up a lot – it can’t run up more.” Obviously in a stock picker hot momentum market – that is exactly what they do – they continue to run. While both look extended now – it’s a good reminder for traders in the future that in a low volatility market where the indices are doing nothing – the hot money will keep pushing the few hot stocks higher and higher and higher.
Yep. In the IPO stages value means nothing. It’s all about a new issue, momentum, and what people are willing to pay for a ride on that train. Was Twitter ever worth 75? Lol
On difference between TWLO and TWTR/BABA is the volume in TWLO on that long tailed candle of August 15th. Looks capitulatory.
$twtr had a similar day with elevated volume followed by several down days. It only looks small in retrospect because of the huge volume into the subsequent chase. $baba looks to have done something similar but not identical.
Gold weakness and TLT gap lower could setup a big day for the financials…stay tuned.
TWLO will dip down into the $51s where shorts will cover. It will bounce there, but not approach recent highs. Neither will shorts re-load on the coming bounce. mywag
Purdy accurate so far this morning.
went long in 54.60s
I am on the train – got some TWLO 60s at the open.
Bot CBIS and TRTC shares on the close yesterday…keep an eye on the group for addl upside
Got favorites? I moved away from these a couple months ago.
Also picked up a single TWLO call at the open. Also a few FCX Sept
$UA quietly breaking out
Was on the road at the open, missed my fill in $TWLO (it was chopping so I went slightly below the mid bid/ask). Contract is up 50% since then. Oh well. Onto the next one.
Closed out my $DE YOLO for a double. Got in a day early but happy for the win. It will be difficult to refrain from Q3 earnings trades, but I imagine we’ll be in a heightened state of volatility by then. Either way it’s fun to gamble when you have a little house money.
Holy Shit I sold that $DE early. First time I’ve ever traded someone that reported the damn morning of expiry. Didn’t really know what to expect. Lesson learned.
CREE.
OA, how’s SFUN looking?
Like a crime scene. $ATHM did the same though and it made out ok.
Knew I should have bought that bloodbath in GEO, CXW at least for this bounce. Oh well
Holy footlocker
NFLX coiled up today is one big consolidation looking good for the afternoon
or maybe not.
This has been a great morning for me to practice not checking my account balance….
Why’s that? Because stuff is working? lol
I have the day off… I woke up and looked at all my shit deep red. But with TLT and GLD down I figured it’s probably okay. Went back to bed.
And I’m trying to not react and not get shimmy shaked out of winners too early… so instead of micro managing the first hour I did nothing and I think I’m better off for it 🙂
Like you said last night if account balance fluctuations get to you then don’t even look haha
BIDU is making me happy….so is TWLO
Earnings trades for next week:
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&o=-marketcap&t=lfc,tol,wsm,dg,sdlp
Includes a bonus short of $DG.
$WSM’s volatility isn’t all that low, but it feels like $URBN to me. So that’s kind of instinct trading. Beware.
Short list, but I like them all. I think I’ll try and trade each (except maybe $SDLP, which is a bit thin). And I already have $NMBL on.
$GME also reports next week. I know folks had their eye on that one.
(also take the reporting date with a grain of salt as both FinViz and GoogleFinance had $SFUN wrong)
Bought $WSM and $WCN.
PEIX, the chart though.. Looks proper.
So it looks like GLD and TLT are setting up for a move. What do you guys think? Do they follow XLU and break lower?
looks like TWLO is going to get pegged to $55 today
FIT and GPRO look good – nice wedges in both
Not bad.. but look at DIS or a WEDGE.
for a WEDGE.
Yeah, we’ve been tracking this one since prior to earnings. Winding up pretty tight.
Anyone have an opinion on KORS here? Pretty certain we see 53 soon. From there, just under 58.
$TLRD. Big calls went off. Pattern/profile ready.
Thanks, will check it – all you need is a second to wreck these days!
Debating taking off my UWTI. Held this thing through a rough 30% drop. What are people’s upside targets on oil?
Was thinking $56 upside target to fill the gap but i’m up 33% and those gains could evaporate quickly.
Probably should hold:
http://dennisgartman.blogspot.com/2016/08/crude-oil-rising-into-50-percent.html
You know that’s not his site right?
“Blogspot”
of course…but they are his words
OA
$FDX still like it? I am obsessed with that, for good or bad.
Elaborate. Meaning…if I were long, would I hold? Or would I enter FDX here?
Would you enter $FDX here, for 2-3 week dated calls?
Absolutely not. Why did you wait this long?
Why is everyone willing to chase shit?
Played it safe/stupid by not holding too many at once. Now that I have closed out my LB trade, I am in the market.
Agree that the entry point was in the 165 area. Still think $FDX has room, but not risking it
A good trade has more to do with location than the ticker symbol, IMO.
You better get a new post up before we hit 100 comments and seal our fate!
SCWX wants to BTFO …
Volume sux though …
Adding to my FCX here. Leaving room for one more add in case they break it down below $11.70