I’ll use charts of the Dow to reflect the similarities this time. We’ve already hammered down the $SPX and $RUT over the last year, so here’s a fresh look:
The breakout brought a lot of sideways action back then. However, the Dow under performed the rest of the market as the defensive stance transitioned to offense. This is exactly what we’re seeing now.
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So where we used to be conditioned to buy the dip, we are now looking for the drop since we are at the top of the range? Is that why we are so antsy?
lol…who’s “we?”
haha
We the unwashed, o great oracle of IBC….we’re not worthy, we’re not worthy!
What a great dog you have in your avatar. Is it your dog?
It looks, if the market follows the 1998 chart pattern, that, at some point, the market is going to thrust right on upwards, right through the apparent “top of the range.”
Yup, it is our dog – that was back after a day trip to the mountains where he got to chase chipmunks
OA is very observant
lol….what does that mean?
Once the public has been re-trained to not buy the dip, market breaks out to upside?
Board the ark (c)
awesome charts
i’m walking around the house singing ‘would you like to ride in my beautiful balloon’ !!!!
SNE will go to 50.
OA – Thoughts on LC?
Missed a nice rip.
Do you see a few month of sideways before melt up mode? Looks like ’99 sideway was the trend for a while before a huge up tick. Thanks!
Let me ask this…how does my answer impact what you are doing right now and moving through that time frame?
Good question and I don’t have a solid answer. I’ve got a truckload of cash from a recent home sale and don’t know what to do with it. Invest LT, ST, or buy a new house.
I guess what I wanted you to realize is that “market” movement has been totally irrelevant here. Market has been flat for a month, right? I’m absolutely killing it.
Market of stocks dude. Forget about stock market.
I know I know. Hard to keep that mindset when you start trading position sizes you’re not used to.
Ah, be careful with that dude. Want to know why I have trolls? Because I take a trade and lose money on it. But instead of using a rational position size, they load up on an idea that doesn’t work and blow out their account.
I agree 100%. The slow market over the last 30 days has been stock-picking paradise. Let’s hope these conditions persist for a while.
If it follows 1998, you could just buy broad market ETFs and eventually the market would go your way– although not by any huge percentage. And then you could trade individual stocks with smaller amounts of money. That way you wouldn’t risk more than you’re comfortable with on a single stock.
That post of mine above was addressed to Ders.
$GEO / $CXW dropped the soap.
Any thoughts on this being big buy opportunity? Only federal prisoners affected, states not necessarily following. Plus it isn’t immediate action. Seems especially overdone for GEO which has large businesses outside US. Guess fat divy’s will be cut so that could lead to follow on drops but I’m tempted here.
+1 on the comment, one of my favorite’s this summer.
What is your target on BITA?
What time frame?
3-6 months
$0.
Nice thanks.
Looks ugly, no? When you zoom out?
What’s your target? Where would you buy?
sorry, you thinks it’s going to zero dollars in 6 mos?
Higher lows, higher highs.
Equal highs at best.
Do you own it?
OA maybe tonight you can go over why BITA looks different than say BIDU on the long term charts? They kind of look similar to me
Do the calls you bought expire this week?
Just got some Oct calls in $WDC. Yesterday looked better but I liked this dip into the lunch hour. Bought a little extra time on this one so the last penny hopefully won’t make a massive difference.
The more I look at $MAR the more I want to roll it out. Looks like it wants to break so badly from here. Got out of the August’s just under break even.
Love this: “Seven of the last eight prospective clients I have spoken to are scared. They tell me “there is no way I am investing at these levels,” and the most common phrase I hear from them is “a crash is coming.” I try to explain to them that this might be the beginning of a new bull market and they laugh at me.” http://joefahmy.com/2016/08/17/bull-markets-are-born-on-pessimism/)
and this: http://361capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/15/bondboom.png
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
Expect Euphoria to set in at Jackson Hole.
OA. I mostly have to invest in individual stocks in Canada. Do you mind giving your thoughts on Enghouse Systems (ESL-T). Anything of interest on it for LT?
Can’t figure out how to pull those up.
speaking of Can stocks. what about Lt chart of CSU.to(constellation software)?
CSU.ca
Enghouse is a mini version of Constelation Software.
Still can’t pull them up.
I was just looking at the wedge on Google stocks. don’t know how to pull up those ones on ameritrade etc
OA – if you had to put money in 1 of thee china stock, which would you pick. JD or BIDU
I did both weeks ago.
ic. I have JD now. Was thinking of selling that and swapping into BIDU. guess too late now.
OA,
What are your thoughts on $ACIA’s ridiculous run and is it just WAY too late to get in at this point/do you think this could continue?
Rarely have i seen a stock make this kind of move, ratcheting upwards even on down days…not really sure what to think of it.
Thanks as always.
Logan, its flirting with you. Let me know how it turns out.
HAHA, that doesn’t exactly instill much confidence since i’m already concerned about my TWLO breaking down to that $56.70 level.
It is a LONG fall from there
Too nervous to pull the trigger on $ACIA I think. Are you in it or would you get in at this point?
Buy up here? Don’t think the 300% move up was enough?
LOL i hear you. I guess i’m not looking to buy here as much as i am looking for a reasoning on why this thing will not quit…
They have tremendous earnings but its prob time to find the next one.
If I see you break rules over anxiousness, that’s a lesson I’ll let you learn.
took off 2/3 of my KMI 22s for a 10X gain – holding the last 20 calls into tomorrow looking to get all the way through the pocket
that’s a great move the day before expiry. Congrats!
I’ve got my September 20’s still. Holding out for $23.50.
Also started that $BSPM. The spot looked too good. I will keep a tight stop on this one for sure.
yeah, I want to let it all ride, but also would be furious if I woke up tomorrow to have this gap down….took a great win off the table and left enough to run…as it looks right now, tomorrow we could see 23+….
$ADXS looks about ready for round number 2, and $ANTH looks about ready for its breakout here too. Picking up some of both here before the close.