I spoke earlier this year that the breadth signals back in the Feb-March time frame are the types of signals you get when bear markets transition into bull markets. Even late last year, I argued that the “98-style” correction of last year would create this escape velocity for the market.
The $NYMO generated it’s highest reading this year since Jan 2009, and July 2006 – before the enthusiasm run into 2007. In these instances, the strength of these breadth signals is an early indicator that the market has the force underneath it building to send it much higher. The Summation index also created an extreme signal earlier this year, as Tom McClellan has pointed out in the chart below.
We spoke about breadth signals last night and how they signal the start of a risk cycle, but I’ve prepared more analysis on this for tonight’s discussion.
OA
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Looks like buy the dip mentality is back in the market in conjunction with FOMO
Kidstock – thanks for the discussion on TWTR – really liking my calls right now….
Sometimes I get ’em right…tempted to take the double on my 14’s
I was up 125% on mine this morning, but am looking at the price action and think there is more upside. Watching – key levels are 14.45 and 14.80. Based on market this afternoon, I may just close with a profit since these are short dated calls and being a hero gets you nothing – or I can sell half and lock in the small win and let the other half ride risk free….
twtr investor day today at 2p.m. pacific
Don’t know if that is a good or bad thing……lol
I sold and rolled into June 15’s
I sold as well for a 50+%, but holding off on further buying to see what looks good out there – I get in trouble when I try to allocated funds without thinking through the trade – stocks I was watching are either gone or meh, so need to be patient.
Any take on the price action in $CF these last three days? Looks like it’s found an interesting place here, but it’s getting a little too fast and i’m wondering if I should just keep my hands off. I like $MOS too.
$AGU my favorite, but I own $IPI. They all look pretty decent.
Wow..I haven’t looked at $IPI in a few years, had no idea it got below $2
Got her for a dolla.
good looks
No longer has its inversion deal overhang.
I’m trying TCS here for a constanza
AAPL is in that earnings day gap – looking like it may just be a slow methodical grind to 100 or so
Thanks for the breadth update, OA. The sentiment chart worked out quite well, helped keep me in the game.
http://postimg.org/image/emekfw9jv
I shared your chart in AHWOA when you posted. Works just as well on lower time frames. Nice work.
$BABA support at $75. Worth a long three??
*there
@Thomas Jefferson — congrats on 150%+ win on NMBL 7.5 calls earnings play
yeah – just saw NMBL is a 25% gainer on the day nice going!
Monster! Well done!
Thanks guys. I’ve been pretty stoked all day but wasn’t looking to grandstand as I didn’t think too many others were in it.
NFLX is sitting right at $100 – I thought it would rip once it broke 100
The market speed, she is gone
Got my fingers crossed for slight’ish pullback in TLRD so I can buy some July calls. George is back!
bought shares instead @ 14.15
BABA looks like death
Can’t believe the timing of that news.
that was just really crummy – everything was lining up and then gets shot down – like getting rivered on a 2-outer…nothing you can do except play the game
Seriously. Finally breaks out and then this bull shit
Intraday consolidation in TWTR is impressive – may be foreboding good things ahead of the analyst day?
OA, quick follow up question for you. In terms of those extreme breadth readings, when it hits extreme lows, is that usually when we see capitulation market wide and the start of a new bullish cycle? Thanks for the response in advance.
X is moving – great day
Unbelievable timing on baba, maybe tomorrow the SEC will change it’s mind and it gaps up $20.
Market is looking very solid here.
From Joe Kunkle, OptionsHawk:
Alibaba $BABA late day buyer 5,000 June $74 calls $3.20 to open looking to stop the bleeding, rolled from weekly $78.50’s that got smashed
Listening to TWTR analyst day – nothing earth shattering – a few pointed questions about being acquired (no comment), why the stock price sucks (and was pretty much this pointed), monetization of platform and what is being planned, and general questions about features.
Don’t think there will be any positive or negative reaction out of this
Buying both TWTR and BABA for long term accounts. I think the MoffettNathanson TWTR sell call was the bottom.
Comes after selling JO last week for +10% and
selling all my heavy gold positions bought last Oct for
+100% gains.
NFLX.wont.stop
Freaking beast. Sold my calls way too early. Up $2 already
Up $4 – may be a 10% day for NFLX….shorts getting crushed
NKD 17000+ and $50 Crude tonight..
Love a down day. Long TVIX for a quick trade.
Buying both TWTR and BABA for long term accounts. I think the MoffettNathanson TWTR sell call was the bottom.
Comes after selling JO last week for +10% and
selling all my heavy gold positions bought last Oct for
+100% gains.
$50+ Crude…mutiny on the Ark! Banks should have a monster day.
…. And that marked the top for oil
OA, there’s news in EBIO from last night. Looks like Joe Boxer’s Tavistock group bought 10% of the outstanding shares which amounts to almost 30% of the free float. This could be a crazy mover.
X is up 5% – awesome call Jeff
Courtesy of Helene Meister – this week’s AAII 17.75% Bulls….lower than 2/16 and 2008.
#ArkIsNextTitanic
#FIMO
#Underinvested
#2H16CameoByTheInvestorFormerlyKnownAsTheFly?
Had a conversation for a few hours last night about this bond bubble being so much bigger than the housing bubble ever was.
I was interviewing for a job in 2001 and was asked to present an idea for the next ten years. My recommendation was 30 Year Treasuries. I did not get the job because the interview was for an equity analyst position and I had the nerve to present a non-equity idea.
Rates bottomed eleven years after my interview, the Nasdaq broke out ten and a half years after interview….Interestingly, Treasuries are only .25% higher while the Nasdaq has nearly doubled.
My sense (with no data to support this) is that current Treasury Holdings have increased by a multiple of 2X or more vs 2011 while equity allocations have increased by a fraction of that amount. Where could one find data to make that comparision?
FIT — gap & go. TSLA is next
Bot a few TSLA weekly 225 calls
AGN still on sale for folks looking for best-of-breed
Yup. Been storing this in my long term account
SQ June 11 calls for .2 — me likey
Wave bye-bye to FIT bears….stock now back above 14.5 breakout area. next stop 15+
lol – looks like we are going to get some consolidation here
or maybe we rally a little and just make everyone chase….geez
Your $BYD looks fantastic.
Liking the pullbacks in KITE and ICPT for folks looking for entries in biotech
Bought GOGO calls this am. Got lucky. Nice pick in AHWOA last night guys.
I dont know the co. at all but $INSY was the top % short stock in a screen RC did for Exodus. 81% short
Out of TSLA weeklys for a double. Too nice of a day to spend at the desk….going fishing
That’s the spirit! Nice trade. Hope they’re biting (or the beer is at least nice and cold).
I’m looking very hard at $YELP calls, but I am right on the edge of my risk tolerance right now. $SQ coming back in as well. Decisions, decisions.
What to do with all your NMBL proceeds? Good problem to have!
I know! It’s a great and terrible position to be in. It’s tough not to just book it now, but there’s so much room above and I’ve got until June expiry if it needs to consolidate this move.
wow – that is impressive – I try to do longer term plays, but I get distracted easier, although I did buy some June expirys today in a few things, to include YELP…
Liking this grinding Russell – thinking next week will be interesting
AAPL back over 100